The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Welcome to mollycat and to kelpie35.

My thanks to you both for being brave enough to post in here; I note that the usual potentially inflammatory responses have sadly already been forthcoming, which is I suspect why many simply do not bother posting.

It is good to see others say what I have said in this thread for some time - which is that the views of the pro-SNP pro-indy acolytes in this thread in fact only represent part of Scottish opinion inside Scotland itself and NOT the majority that some would have readers of this thread believe.

I have said before that those beliefs are a small proportion in Scotland yet some of those within disagree.
Hardly surprising really when they flatly refuse acknowledgement of even the most basic points of the independence debate.

I agree that most Scots are not inclined to be desirous of the inevitable increased austerity that independence at this time would bring, us Scots being generally happy (or at least accepting) of the status quo which has existed for so long.

kabayiri

Regardless of the absolute merits of Scottish independence, I ask you to consider the timing.

Why would PM May consider agreeing to or promoting a Scottish independence referendum in what is likely to be a complicated 2+ years of negotiations with the EU?

Where is the upside for her/Tories in agreeing to this?

The downside of blocking is clear enough. She may end up further eroding support for the Tories in Scotland, but it's not exactly a hotbed of Westminster seats for her party right now. It sounds like a calculated risk.

Timing is important in these matters. There is a school of thought that we entered the ERM at the wrong time a quarter of a century ago.

In 5 years time we could be looking back at the timing of our exit of the EU realising it was the best or the worst time to do this, based possibly on events in the EU itself and outside our control.

Scottish independence is not an end goal, just a means to an ends. If you're a newly independent country in an economic down cycle, or at a time when your major rUK and EU trading partners are seeing economic stagnation/contraction then it makes your transition through those early independence years that much harder I would have thought?

I'd be saying the same about Brexit. It's not an end goal in itself. It guarantees nothing. It does require careful management of the transition period to a new relationship with the EU.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

No one made you vote for a party that can never take power in Westminster. And some people in England hate immigrants the same as some people in Scotland hate immigrants. Do not presume that because of where you live you are somehow more pious than others, or you'll be the embodiment of the very bigotry you profess to hate.

This was in the Scottish Daily Mail today and then on Medium. Chris Deerin is very much a unionist commentator and sums things up rather well from his point of view regarding today's Conservative govt.

When you’re ready to talk, Nicola, we’re ready to listen

...Or, as John Swinney put it this week: ‘Brexit has changed the dynamics of the UK and it’s reasonable to consider a second referendum.’

It won’t please my more devoutly unionist friends that I say this, but he’s right. On a central constitutional matter of existential import, English bulk has prevailed. Sheer force of numbers in one of the UK’s composite parts now commands the others to do its bidding, against their democratically expressed will. Meanwhile, the new unelected government that is driving us towards a hard Brexit seems to be taking the opportunity to pursue a slasher-flick Conservatism that leaves our own Ruth Davidson resembling a bowl of hand-knitted Liberal Democrat muesli.

England is entitled to vote as it chooses, of course, but the curious physics that has sustained the United Kingdom for so long is being rewritten in front of our eyes. From the Scottish perspective, the equations look a bit off.

https://medium.com/@chrisdeerin/when-youre-ready-to-talk-nicola-we-re-ready-to-listen-3cfad2ed76b#.kd1sxtftu

Full article at link.

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

Regardless of the absolute merits of Scottish independence, I ask you to consider the timing.

Why would PM May consider agreeing to or promoting a Scottish independence referendum in what is likely to be a complicated 2+ years of negotiations with the EU?

Where is the upside for her/Tories in agreeing to this?

They won't agree.

The downside of blocking is clear enough. She may end up further eroding support for the Tories in Scotland, but it's not exactly a hotbed of Westminster seats for her party right now. It sounds like a calculated risk.

She'll send support for independence through the roof. Well over the 50% needed. The SNP may well either go ahead with an advisory ref or else dissolve the current parliament in Holyrood and stand along with the Greens on a a 'vote for us vote for independence negotiations' manifesto in the subsequent election.

Timing is important in these matters. There is a school of thought that we entered the ERM at the wrong time a quarter of a century ago.

In 5 years time we could be looking back at the timing of our exit of the EU realising it was the best or the worst time to do this, based possibly on events in the EU itself and outside our control.

Scottish independence is not an end goal, just a means to an ends. If you're a newly independent country in an economic down cycle, or at a time when your major rUK and EU trading partners are seeing economic stagnation/contraction then it makes your transition through those early independence years that much harder I would have thought?

I'd be saying the same about Brexit. It's not an end goal in itself. It guarantees nothing. It does require careful management of the transition period to a new relationship with the EU.

If Scotland wishes an attempt to remain in the EU uninterrupted ( the EU hasn't said anything otherwise as yet ) and avoid an in and out scenario then the vote needs to happen before the UK leaves. It's not that difficult a concept to grasp is it ? Article 50 getting invoked sets off a two year timer. Any Scottish ref needs to take place within that timeframe.

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

If Scotland wishes an attempt to remain in the EU uninterrupted ( the EU hasn't said anything otherwise as yet ) and avoid an in and out scenario then the vote needs to happen before the UK leaves. It's not that difficult a concept to grasp is it ? Article 50 getting invoked sets off a two year timer. Any Scottish ref needs to take place within that timeframe.

The EU isn't going to say anything. There's been no formal application. To pull a cart you need the horse first. Then you need to meet the joining criteria. Years away whatever the Brexit outcome.

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

If Scotland wishes an attempt to remain in the EU uninterrupted ( the EU hasn't said anything otherwise as yet ) and avoid an in and out scenario then the vote needs to happen before the UK leaves. It's not that difficult a concept to grasp is it ? Article 50 getting invoked sets off a two year timer. Any Scottish ref needs to take place within that timeframe.

so why not do it now?
answer : nicola's polls don't show around 60% in favour of iscotland

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The EU isn't going to say anything. There's been no formal application. To pull a cart you need the horse first. Then you need to meet the joining criteria. Years away whatever the Brexit outcome.

By seeking to remain in the EU, there won't need to be any formal application. That's entirely the point of calling a ref before the UK leaves. In fact it's the only reason for Sturgeon to call a referendum in the next two years. <---- You and a few others here really do need to take this point on board.

Sturgeon/SNP and the Scottish Greens have no intention of leaving the EU/Single Market under any circumstances. And certainly not only to have to go through the palaver of rejoining again a few years later. Other than the EU issue and remaining within it she could just wait it out until the polls moved a bit more over the next 3 or 4 years.

The EU hasn't said anything officially. Though one of their chief negotiators seems to think Scotland remaining while rUK leaves would be doable. We'll see how that pans out, but nevertheless every single move Sturgeon makes in the next few months/year will be towards remaining in the EU/Single market one way or another, not leaving and rejoining. Article 50 first though.

.string.

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Remember what I was saying about rebalancing Scottish trade -

Sturgeon to announce 'open for business' Scots trade plans - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37661319

She's years too late, now going off half cocked in indy2 with a plethora of holes in her argument.

Could these moves be taken as an admission that trade with Europe needs to increase dramatically to make independence work from the number 1 nationalist? Looks like it to me.

Looking at that link, and others recently reporting the SNP line, it's clear that the SNP is ratcheting up their hate propaganda. It's very insulting I find.

The effort that is now being put into boondoggles to Germany etc is, as you say, late in coming and in principle would be welcome, but we know full well that the real intent us to give the impression of a cosy relationship with Europe to persuade the gullible that inheriting the UK EU Membership is just round the corner and not the poor pipe dream it really is.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

This was in the Scottish Daily Mail today and then on Medium. Chris Deerin is very much a unionist commentator and sums things up rather well from his point of view regarding today's Conservative govt.

https://medium.com/@chrisdeerin/when-youre-ready-to-talk-nicola-we-re-ready-to-listen-3cfad2ed76b#.kd1sxtftu

Full article at link.

Again, a political commentators opinion that'll change once they get a whiff of what independence really means for Scotland. He's probably still smarting from being on the remain side of the EU vote. He'll come to his senses soon. Can't be much of a unionist if he thinks the EU vote was split into regions, because it wasn't. Nicola asked for that, and didn't get it yet north of the border there are so many of you that believe that fantasy.

This whole thing smacks of the liberal left stamping their feet and throwing a tantrum because they're not getting their own way. Regardless of the consequences of having said tantrum. The facts and figures against independence stand on their own two feet. The contradictions of independence and EU membership are glaring.

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

but we know full well that the real intent us to give the impression of a cosy relationship with Europe to persuade the gullible that inheriting the UK EU Membership is just round the corner and not the poor pipe dream it really is.

I rather think you're just hoping that to be the case. What if it's not an impression ?
No one from the EU has said anything otherwise. But anyway it's become clear that the SNP are simply bypassing Westminster altogether these days in terms of foreign policy making.

She just did a barnstorming speech to close the conference. Seemed to go down quite well and the only i word mentioned was inclusion. A real contrast to the Conservative conference indeed.