The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

CLAPTON

elantan wrote: »

Because we will have all the levers required to steer our own boat ... why wouldn't we be better off ?

all sovereign countries have all the levers they require to steer their own boat; are they all 'better off' and if so, who are they better off than

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Hold up, I fully accept that UK trade with the single market could drop significantly, the difference being that we (rUK) would have control over our trade affairs in order to offset and/or improve upon that.

You make that sound all very easy but I expect a fair bit of it is wishful thinking. It could be decades before the hit from leaving the EU is resolved through 'improvement'. Is Scotland just expected to take a triple whammy of reduced trade via the single market if she stays in the UK, a hypothetical deficit worsening to crisis levels, and having to put up with a right wing Tory govt calling the shots over terms of leaving the EU and UK policy setting for the forseeable future ? While sitting twiddling thumbs and accepting all of the above as the best the Union has to offer even though we voted for none of it ? Hold up..

Scotland in the EU will not have that flexibility. So whilst the numbers are complete fantasy, I couldn't possibly tell you what the real impact would be as a percentage, the theory is sound in that any impact Scottish trade has as a result of barriers to trade between Scotland (EU) and rUK would need to be solved. Will the EU be able to take up the slack, will Scottish business be competitive enough to sell into the EU market to make up the shortfall? Will they even bother? They might say move south with the majority of their market. Remember only 11% of Scottish trade is with the EU, so the EU really isn't that important to Scotland or Scottish business.

We'll be watching Ireland and NI closely in terms of borders and trade regarding a Brexit. I know you think you can take just ONE challenging issue ( trade between an iScotland and rUK ) and present it as a complete argument in a nutshell against Scottish independence ever - like many do with the yearly GERS. But in reality reasons for independence are far more complex and encompass wide ranging issues from both the economic AND political sphere. It's politics that's the driving force behind independence at the moment and the chance at getting what we collectively vote for as a country once in a while.

The Tories claim that Brexit offers the UK the opportunity to become one of the world’s great trading nations – by leaving the world’s largest trading bloc. That would be the same party that systematically destroyed the UK’s manufacturing industries.

The future they have in store for us is a low wage low rights economy presided over by an authoritarian Conservative party which will be able to introduce undemocratic measures like May’s Snooper’s Charter without having to worry about being kept in check by Europe. What employment and personal rights we still enjoy will be whittled away in the name of making the UK more attractive to global corporations.

Austerity will become a way of life, an ideological tool for the Tories to destroy what’s left of our public services and sacrifice them on the altar of privatisation. Our future will come with a G4S logo.

https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2016/08/31/lets-face-a-future-that-we-determine-for-ourselves/

Shakethedisease

Conrad wrote: »

Indeed I sense the SNP juggernaut losing momentum and Tory Ruth perhaps becoming leader

Is very unlikely unless the Tories and Labour in Scotland join up and form an overall Unionist party. Even then that probably wouldn't be enough as the last remaining traditional Labour voters still left would desert to the SNP or forgo voting at all.

The more rural areas and posher city enclaves in Scotland are Conservative/LibDem/SNP marginals in many cases. However, the vast majority of voters live in the Central belt. Where the SNP have taken over from a Labour party that gained 40+ MPs in every election for several decades until 2015. As long as the SNP remain dominant in those areas, then the SNP will remain dominant in Scotland.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You make that sound all very easy but I expect a fair bit of it is wishful thinking. It could be decades before the hit from leaving the EU is resolved through 'improvement'. Is Scotland just expected to take a triple whammy of reduced trade via the single market if she stays in the UK, a hypothetical deficit worsening to crisis levels, and having to put up with a right wing Tory govt calling the shots over terms of leaving the EU and UK policy setting for the forseeable future ? While sitting twiddling thumbs and accepting all of the above as the best the Union has to offer even though we voted for none of it ? Hold up..



We'll be watching Ireland and NI closely in terms of borders and trade regarding a Brexit. I know you think you can take just ONE challenging issue ( trade between an iScotland and rUK ) and present it as a complete argument in a nutshell against Scottish independence ever - like many do with the yearly GERS. But in reality reasons for independence are far more complex and encompass wide ranging issues from both the economic AND political sphere. It's politics that's the driving force behind independence at the moment and the chance at getting what we collectively vote for as a country once in a while.

https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2016/08/31/lets-face-a-future-that-we-determine-for-ourselves/

There's two reasons that come to my mind as to why we would be facing a Conservative government over the next few parliaments.

1. SNP disposing of Labour in Scotland.
2. Jeremy Corbyn.

So you're right about that for sure.

You seem to like Corbyn so you must be in favour of the current political climate?

Decades for the UK, in control of its trade affairs, to resolve the hit taken from losing single market access. That's 44% of trade to a bigger nation, the UK as a whole. Lets assume you're right...

Does Scotland have the capability to resolve taking the hit to 64% of its trade in the same time frame or less without being in control of its own trade affairs?

Hmmm, that 64%. It's the massive elephant in the nationalist staff room.

If 11% of Scottish trade is with the EU that leaves 89%, of that 89% there's the 64% which we know is rUK, so that leaves 25% with the rest of the world.

So as part of the UK Scotland stands to struggle with only 11% of its trade, plus keep Barnett and increased powers compared to the situation in 2014.

Outside of the UK and in the EU Scotland stands to struggle with 64% of its trade. It's entirely possible that large swathes of Scottish business will migrate south if it no longer has access to this large market with which it trades. That means jobs.

So loss of jobs linked to 11% while remaining in the UK.

Or loss of jobs linked to 64% while remaining in the EU.

Tough choice.......... not really.

Political ideology or no, the choice is stark, and easy to make when you've got kids that need clothes and food and your job is linked to the UK and not the EU. This is not the same question as before in 2014 if what May says is true brexit means brexit, even including SM membership. Only outside the EU would Scotland be able to continue amicable trade with the rUK, and that's not what Nicola is offering now is it.

It couldn't possibly be, otherwise there's no mandate for a new referendum.

You're being given a choice between two unions, not independence. Not anymore. That was 2014.

elantan

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Not at all, there are Scottish people on here who are looking at you dodging this question thinking the nationalist stance is a house built on sand because you cannot answer such a simple question.

Either you'll be better off, worse off, or the same. You seem to think better off but cannot say why short of "well over 10 years it should get better". That wouldn't convince me to vote for independence. The lack of argument would, if I were undecided, probably tip me towards voting to remain.

As an outspoken nationalist the onus is very much on you and yours to convince the rest of Scotland that your way is the best way. If it genuinely is the best way then really you ought to be able to convince someone like myself too. I'm quite happy to listen to and read empirical evidence. Thoughts and feelings are not quite so interesting. So if you're unable to convince those of us who like facts and figures (I'm a programmer who codes for statistical analysis) then the argument isn't sound.

I struggle to reconcile how you've come to such a cast iron conclusion that independence is the way forward without having cast iron reasoning behind it.

I ain't trying to convince you, I ain't interested in convincing anyone, been there did that got the t-shirt. .. I have nothing left to prove and no one I want to prove that to ... All I have to do is vote Yes next time ... nothing more

however, if you want us to stay part of this union you have to convince myself and others like me that we would be better off staying as part of the union

good luck with that one

Leanne1812

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

There's two reasons that come to my mind as to why we would be facing a Conservative government over the next few parliaments.

1. SNP disposing of Labour in Scotland.
2. Jeremy Corbyn.

So you're right about that for sure.

You seem to like Corbyn so you must be in favour of the current political climate?

Decades for the UK, in control of its trade affairs, to resolve the hit taken from losing single market access. That's 44% of trade to a bigger nation, the UK as a whole. Lets assume you're right...

Does Scotland have the capability to resolve taking the hit to 64% of its trade in the same time frame or less without being in control of its own trade affairs?

Hmmm, that 64%. It's the massive elephant in the nationalist staff room.

If 11% of Scottish trade is with the EU that leaves 89%, of that 89% there's the 64% which we know is rUK, so that leaves 25% with the rest of the world.

So as part of the UK Scotland stands to struggle with only 11% of its trade, plus keep Barnett and increased powers compared to the situation in 2014.

Outside of the UK and in the EU Scotland stands to struggle with 64% of its trade. It's entirely possible that large swathes of Scottish business will migrate south if it no longer has access to this large market with which it trades. That means jobs.

So loss of jobs linked to 11% while remaining in the UK.

Or loss of jobs linked to 64% while remaining in the EU.

Tough choice.......... not really.

Political ideology or no, the choice is stark, and easy to make when you've got kids that need clothes and food and your job is linked to the UK and not the EU. This is not the same question as before in 2014 if what May says is true brexit means brexit, even including SM membership. Only outside the EU would Scotland be able to continue amicable trade with the rUK, and that's not what Nicola is offering now is it.

It couldn't possibly be, otherwise there's no mandate for a new referendum.

You're being given a choice between two unions, not independence. Not anymore. That was 2014.

To hear you talk it would seem you think the uk will cut all or most trade with Scotland? This Is not at all logical to me. Is it based on tariffs if an IScotland remains in the EU? Our products we supply to you, what is the plan to source them from elsewhere?

You never did watch the video I posted about GERS did you? If you did there was no feedback. It explains, for me anyway, why its nigh on impossible to really get transparency with Scotland's finances. We can go round & round with this 15b deficit and I'm not disputing there is a deficit but for it to be so much greater than the rest of the U.K. does not ring true. There are no definitive black & white figures of where the money goes. So many grey areas and we all just have to suck it up and accept we are dependent. I'm not prepared to do that unless we get transparent accounting. Scotland is a resource rich nation so why on earth are we in this predicament? Why are we repeatedly told we only have all the benefits we have because of the generosity of our neighbours in the uk. Why are we so special to warrant this special treatment? It does not add up nor will the subsidy last forever as the resentment building from the rUK & political forces will see to that.

It all boils down to the economics for you & I can understand and accept that view but there are many, many reasons to want to live in a small, peaceful independent nation. Some of which have been pointed out to you but you don't get it, I don't think you ever will. It's not that we wish for a poorer nation, we believe that being in control of our finances & decaion making will enable us to make individual decisions which will lead us prosper eventually. Much like you feel the uk will do outside the EU

It still strikes me as somewhat surreal to be described as a nationalist in such a derogatory way. There is nothing sinister or superior about my desire for an independent Scotland.

AnotherJoe

elantan wrote: »

Because we will have all the levers required to steer our own boat

So does Venezuela.

TrickyTree83

Leanne1812 wrote: »

To hear you talk it would seem you think the uk will cut all or most trade with Scotland? This Is not at all logical to me. Is it based on tariffs if an IScotland remains in the EU? Our products we supply to you, what is the plan to source them from elsewhere?

Scotland wouldn't get a say if it's in the EU will it.

You will have to abide by EU trade deals.

So if there is no single market membership for the UK and tariff barriers go up it logically follows that trade between the UK and Scotland suffers doesn't it.

I didn't get chance to watch the video, can you post the link again please? If not I'll go back and look for it when I get chance.

I'm more than happy to ignore the deficit for the moment, so in an iScotland scenario in the EU where the rUK had full fat brexit. Which looks the most likely scenario in which Scotland would have a new referendum. The nationalist movement must address the impact on 64% of trade, the revenue loss, the job losses, the business relocation.

As I said previously (and again ignoring the deficit and GERS), it's a case of choosing between:

A) Scotland in the UK sacrificing a proportion of the 11% of trade with the EU and keeping the remaining 89% intact.
Scotland becoming independent from the UK and sacrificing a proportion of the 64% of trade between the rUK and keeping the 46% intact.

Even if we include the 25% rest of the world figures as tied in with the EU via EU trade deals at the moment it only brings the 'EU' trade up to 33%.

Like I keep saying it's a stark choice, and not one you can ignore. One of them will hurt your tax revenues and employment figures much worse than the other.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Scotland wouldn't get a say if it's in the EU will it.

More of a say than we do know.

You will have to abide by the EU trade.

As we do now.

So if there is no single market membership for the UK and tariff barriers go up it logically follows that trade between the UK and Scotland suffers doesn't it.

Not as much as rUK does.

2 Months After ‘Brexit’ Vote, Britain’s Push to Leave E.U. Is a Muddle

British officials currently have neither the expertise nor the staff for the tortuous exit negotiations, which are likely to last at least three years and possibly much longer. Some analysts have even said they might take a decade.
But perhaps what they lack most of all is a game plan.
“At the moment, they haven’t got a clue,” said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, a London-based research institute...

Because Britain’s trade deals are currently negotiated by European Union officials, the British government is chronically short on expertise and has had to call in expensive external consultants while starting to recruit its own specialists.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/01/world/europe/britain-brexit-eu.html

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

More of a say than we do know.As we do now.Not as much as rUK does.

What?

You won't have more of a say than you do now.

You'll be a small voice in the EU parliament.

And yes you do abide by EU trade deals now, so does the UK. But if we get the full fat brexit from May and you get a referendum BECAUSE of that, then the dynamics of the vote change. That's indisputable.

You're then faced with the stark choice I've put before you in recent posts.

Keep 11% of trade with the EU intact.

Or

Keep 64% of trade with the rUK intact.

You won't be able to protect both.

The rUK won't suffer as much as iScotland in the EU where tariffs are in force. Telling yourself that as a justification for voting Yes is particularly dangerous.