The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

elantan

Why wouldn't we be better off ?

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I'm not so sure, have a read of this portion of a discussion I was reading today. There are some interesting breakdowns there to digest in respect of Ireland.

What does any of that have to do with being better off/richer outside of the UK and the EU, or outside of the UK and in the EU?

The 64% is a massive amount of trade, almost two thirds of your entire trade.

If Scotland went alone and didn't join the EU, then probably that trade could continue if the UK is also not in the EU since both will have control over their affairs.

That's not the option 'on the table' now, a vote to be independent would come with the caveat of joining the EU since that would be the trigger for the vote under current circumstances.

So Scotland will not have control over its trade affairs. If there's a bad deal between the UK and the EU then that 64% is in danger, even if it only dropped 25% that's a bigger drop in trade as cutting off ALL of your current EU trade.

Currency is the least of the problems.

TrickyTree83

elantan wrote: »

Why wouldn't we be better off ?

That's not an answer or argument.

I've politely asked numerous times for you to tell me why you will be better off. Your reply, quite a few times is to get me to tell you why you won't be.

If you've done your research into the question then you'll know why you think you'll be better off and you should be able to tell me.

I don't believe you'll be better off being 'independent' and in the EU, since the scenario in which a vote to leave the UK would come about now would be in one where there is no single market membership according to Nicola Sturgeon. And it will adversely affect your trade with the rUK - which quite frankly you cannot afford to lose, alongside Barnett and trying to maintain the level of living you currently enjoy.

You're quite right in that 10 years it may get better, but in 10 years so much can change that it's equally as likely that it won't, and that it could get even worse than at the moment you break away from the rUK. Everyone can indulge in theory and fantasy in that way.

So please, tell me how you will be better off or richer or increase the living standards of Scottish people by becoming independent?

Is this going back to Salmond's 'everyone will be £xxx richer' statements? I don't recall the exact figure.

elantan

I've done my research I know we're better off independent ... I have no desire to convince others of the same, you seem to want me to think we will not be better off I asked you why you have yet to give me a reason that I can believe ... so this will just go round and round ... difference is I will have a say and a vote but you won't ... maybe you need to work harder on trying to talk me into wanting to remain

Personally speaking as I've said countless time I gave up campaigning on 18th sept 2014, all I need to do now is put my cross on a box or not ... and sit and eat popcorn whilst enjoying the view of the UK political elite tear itself apart

elantan

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/unitedkingdombalanceofpaymentsthepinkbook/2016#current-account-overview



Have a wee read at this before you start talking about being better off ... this is before Brexit are you really trying to tell me were better off being part of it ?


Makes Gers figures look awesome in comparison

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

What does any of that have to do with being better off/richer outside of the UK and the EU, or outside of the UK and in the EU?

The 64% is a massive amount of trade, almost two thirds of your entire trade.

If Scotland went alone and didn't join the EU, then probably that trade could continue if the UK is also not in the EU since both will have control over their affairs.

That's not the option 'on the table' now, a vote to be independent would come with the caveat of joining the EU since that would be the trigger for the vote under current circumstances.

So Scotland will not have control over its trade affairs. If there's a bad deal between the UK and the EU then that 64% is in danger, even if it only dropped 25% that's a bigger drop in trade as cutting off ALL of your current EU trade.

Currency is the least of the problems.

Don't be daft. rUK - Scotland trade and vice versa isn't going to stop altogether or even by 25%. That's just convenient hyperbole, and it also means that rUK trade with the EU would drop in a similar manner. Do you think EU trade is going to drop by 25% or more with the UK after Brexit ? Genuine question. Whatever applies to Scotland and rUK if Scotland is still in the EU, applies to rUK in a similar fashion almost exactly.

I makes a good yarn for Ruth Davidson to spin 24/7 for the next year or so but in practice is unlikely.

Looking like May hasn't ruled out pushing the nuclear out of the Single Market button after all though. No EU via the back door and all that.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Don't be daft. rUK - Scotland trade and vice versa isn't going to stop altogether or even by 25%. That's just convenient hyperbole, and it also means that rUK trade with the EU would drop in a similar manner. Do you think EU trade is going to drop by 25% or more with the UK after Brexit ? Genuine question. Whatever applies to Scotland and rUK if Scotland is still in the EU, applies to rUK in a similar fashion almost exactly.

I makes a good yarn for Ruth Davidson to spin 24/7 for the next year or so but in practice is unlikely.

Looking like May hasn't ruled out pushing the nuclear out of the Single Market button after all though. No EU via the back door and all that.

Hold up, I fully accept that UK trade with the single market could drop significantly, the difference being that we (rUK) would have control over our trade affairs in order to offset and/or improve upon that.

Scotland in the EU will not have that flexibility. So whilst the numbers are complete fantasy, I couldn't possibly tell you what the real impact would be as a percentage, the theory is sound in that any impact Scottish trade has as a result of barriers to trade between Scotland (EU) and rUK would need to be solved. Will the EU be able to take up the slack, will Scottish business be competitive enough to sell into the EU market to make up the shortfall? Will they even bother? They might say move south with the majority of their market. Remember only 11% of Scottish trade is with the EU, so the EU really isn't that important to Scotland or Scottish business.

TrickyTree83

elantan wrote: »

I've done my research I know we're better off independent ... I have no desire to convince others of the same, you seem to want me to think we will not be better off I asked you why you have yet to give me a reason that I can believe ... so this will just go round and round ... difference is I will have a say and a vote but you won't ... maybe you need to work harder on trying to talk me into wanting to remain

Personally speaking as I've said countless time I gave up campaigning on 18th sept 2014, all I need to do now is put my cross on a box or not ... and sit and eat popcorn whilst enjoying the view of the UK political elite tear itself apart

Not at all, there are Scottish people on here who are looking at you dodging this question thinking the nationalist stance is a house built on sand because you cannot answer such a simple question.

Either you'll be better off, worse off, or the same. You seem to think better off but cannot say why short of "well over 10 years it should get better". That wouldn't convince me to vote for independence. The lack of argument would, if I were undecided, probably tip me towards voting to remain.

As an outspoken nationalist the onus is very much on you and yours to convince the rest of Scotland that your way is the best way. If it genuinely is the best way then really you ought to be able to convince someone like myself too. I'm quite happy to listen to and read empirical evidence. Thoughts and feelings are not quite so interesting. So if you're unable to convince those of us who like facts and figures (I'm a programmer who codes for statistical analysis) then the argument isn't sound.

I struggle to reconcile how you've come to such a cast iron conclusion that independence is the way forward without having cast iron reasoning behind it.

TrickyTree83

elantan wrote: »

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/unitedkingdombalanceofpaymentsthepinkbook/2016#current-account-overview



Have a wee read at this before you start talking about being better off ... this is before Brexit are you really trying to tell me were better off being part of it ?


Makes Gers figures look awesome in comparison

I've always agreed that we'll take a hit if we have full fat brexit.

But we'll have the ability to change that for ourselves.

An independent Scotland in the EU will suffer a loss of trade with rUK in a full fat brexit scenario and will be forced to comply with EU trade regulation. Whereas the UK can quite happily go around the world striking deals as it pleases to mitigate any problems. I'm not saying that would be easy, but it's in our locker. It won't be in an independent Scotland's locker, since you'll be in the EU.

The current account deficit isn't necessarily a bad thing.

http://www.economicshelp.org/macroeconomics/bop/probs-balance-payments-deficit/

In the explanation you'll note it talks about foreign investment, which we've been attracting for growth for many years.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-29/u-k-foreign-investment-sets-record-boosted-by-emerging-markets

So with record foreign investment and increased borrowing (left wing political ideology... funny that isn't that what you want Scotland to be??) combines to create the situation you see with the UK's current account deficit.

Edit: It certainly doesn't make GERS figures look awesome. You managed to make me smile there. You do know that the deficit Scotland runs is bigger per capita than that of rUK? So if you're independent you'll have a larger budget deficit if you maintain current spending habits.

Conrad

I respect Scots that would like to be fully self governing to follow thier own path, but the Scots aren't daft and as they start to see the Tiger UK really asserting herself with self confidence and determination, making new global alliances and of course trade with the EU continuing as it will, they won't vote for independence, no way.

Indeed I sense the SNP juggernaut losing momentum and Tory Ruth perhaps becoming leader