The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

Shake. Saying it'll happen to us too is not an argument promoting your position.

Time and time again you deflect and ignore the issues which smash the argument for independence to pieces and you continue as if oblivious. If you are successful what will you say to your countrymen and women when they are struggling to feed their kids?

Make absolutely no mistake this is a real consequence of a yes vote. Except in la-la land.

robin61

cells wrote: »

I voted stay but I think the UK will have a good chance at economic success no matter what the road we take. Big brother USA will give us a hand as it can't afford the UK to become a country in continuous recession or worse yet a depression and collapse. The same will surely apply to the EU would they want a weak poor UK or do they need a strong rich UK to keep up its >2% of GDP to military expenses and build a trident fleet and carriers which not only protect england but most of Europe.

I think a deal can be reached to get rid of free movement and keep full market access for potentially as low as £1B a year. If that is what happens I'd regret voting stay as it would be an overall good deal.

More than £2B a year for access and I think it might be better to just walk out completely. A free trade deal with China India USA and other countries might be a bigger prize than free trade with the EU27.


I'm fairly sure the Tories wont accept any free movement. If the EU doesnt compromise there it might be a full divorce

I am pretty optimistic about our future outside of the EU. There will be challenges and uncertainty but of all the EU countries i think the UK is the one best placed to make a success of leaving. We are one of the largest economies in the world and have our own currency.
The other 27 EU member states will have trouble agreeing amongst themselves what relationship they want with the UK. France will no doubt be leading the awkward squad but then on the other extreme you have Ireland who rely on the UK for a huge proportion of their exports. They will certainly be pushing for a favourable trade deal.
Interesting times.

Shakethedisease

CLAPTON wrote: »

you misunderstand about the Irish border issue

The UK can choose to have no firm border between North and South just as it has had for the last 95 years (except for the partial borders during the troubles). We have allowed the free movement of the Irish for the last 300 years without any problems.

If the Irish choose to build and man a fence that that would be their problem. If they choose to put tariffs on goods then again that's their problem. With brexit we get to choose what we do.

This is a debate around borders now however, between a UK out of the EU and those still within it. Should NI ( out of EU ) and Eire ( in EU ) still end up with no hard border after Brexit, am pretty sure the Scottish Govt will be taking notes since after any potential independence vote rUK ( out of EU ), Scotland ( in EU ).

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Shake. Saying it'll happen to us too is not an argument promoting your position.

Time and time again you deflect and ignore the issues which smash the argument for independence to pieces and you continue as if oblivious. If you are successful what will you say to your countrymen and women when they are struggling to feed their kids?

Make absolutely no mistake this is a real consequence of a yes vote. Except in la-la land.

I'm not ignoring the issues. I think it's a position Scotland has been put in which isn't of our own making and I think you're being a bit unrealistic with your predictions. rUK can't afford to lose 60bn worth of trade overnight any more than Scotland can, you must see that. So yes massive problems ahead there for any independent Scotland. Sturgeon has alluded to these challenges many times. Scottish Tories are already harping on about them 24/7 as I indicated a post or two back.

Does it destroy any notion that Scotland can or would go independent based on the recent EU vote ( + the 45% of Scots who wished independence before that ). Nope. Then there's also how much of this 'lost trade' with rUK would be down to the simple facts of hard borders and tariffs. And how much would be down to spite and some desire for 'revenge' as one recent poster put it ?

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

This is a debate around borders now however, between a UK out of the EU and those still within it. Should NI ( out of EU ) and Eire ( in EU ) still end up with no hard border after Brexit, am pretty sure the Scottish Govt will be taking notes since after any potential independence vote rUK ( out of EU ), Scotland ( in EU ).

obviously we can't say for sure what the Uk or EU might do.
But it seems to me that its almost inconceivable for a fence or permanent checkpoints between Eire and NI. Maybe some random stop and search but not much else.

I would image the same between england and scotland assuming scotland wasn't deliberately obstructive.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I'm not ignoring the issues. I think it's a position Scotland has been put in which isn't of our own making and I think you're being a bit unrealistic with your predictions. rUK can't afford to lose 60bn worth of trade overnight any more than Scotland can, you must see that. So yes massive problems ahead there for any independent Scotland. Sturgeon has alluded to these challenges many times. Scottish Tories are already harping on about them 24/7 as I indicated a post or two back.

Does it destroy any notion that Scotland can or would go independent based on the recent EU vote ( + the 45% of Scots who wished independence before that ). Nope. Then there's also how much of this 'lost trade' with rUK would be down to the simple facts of hard borders and tariffs. And how much would be down to spite and some desire for 'revenge' as one recent poster put it ?

The trade the rUK would lose in an iScotland scenario is irrelevant in this discussion since the decision to become iScotland isn't in the hands of the people in the rest of the UK.

Scotland is in this position because in 2014 you voted to remain a member of the UK. You didn't vote to remain a member of the UK - but only if you remain in the EU. That caveat was not on the ballot paper. Therefore you were involved in the decision making process and the ramifications of a UK wide vote on EU membership.

If Brexit results in no single market membership, Scotland will seek independence according to Sturgeon.

No single market membership means no free trade, at least until a free trade deal Canada style can be thrashed out, if at all.

An iScotland leaving the UK and joining the EU, whilst the rUK leaves the EU will result in trade barriers and tariffs.

It's unlikely the people of the rUK will simply sit idly by and allow their exports to be subjected to tariffs and not levy similar tariffs on EU imports. That would be charity of no benefit to the people of the rUK.

So iScotland will have a £9bn deficit, if you include all North Sea oil and gas revenues, although I suspect there will be some negotiation around how that is split up. But lets assume Scotland gets all of it (best case). Then there's the reduction in trade with your largest trading partner, that will result in loss of jobs and tax revenue.

To maintain public spending taxes would need to rise.

For taxes not to rise to eye watering levels iScotland would need to cut services dramatically. Possibly losing the NHS?

It's likely that iScotland would as part of negotiations of breaking up the UK have to take on its share of UK debt. So you'll need to finance that too.

The majority of Scottish industry is made up of small traders. They won't be able to pop across the border to ply their trade in the UK without paying for the privilege. So they would need to re-orient to the continent. In such circumstances these small traders will need to arrange transport to the continent and Ireland. By sea or by air because over land you'll probably need to pay for the privilege too. Increasing costs to these small traders will see some go out of business (job losses) and will see prices increase when wages are stagnating, but falling in real terms due to tax increases.

It's a recipe for economic disaster. Neither am I saying full-fat Brexit wouldn't be painful for the UK as a whole, I'd prefer EEA/EFTA membership myself.

You've never given a plausible answer to the economic argument and have consistently said I'm making massive assumptions. I would counter that with whilst some of these are assumptions, they are at least reasonable assumptions compared with the assumptions you have put forward.

Such as having a common travel area between iScotland and the rUK if Scotland were in the EU and the UK not having single market membership.

Such as the assumption that the SNP speaks for the entire Scottish populace but not even getting near 50% of the Scottish electorate to vote for them in the Scottish parliament elections.

Such as the assumption that Scottish voters wanted to remain in the UK in 2014 only because the UK was within the EU, because that fits your narrative. There are plenty on here who disagree with you on this.

Such as the assumption that the Remain vote in Scotland was entirely due to 1.6m Scottish people wanting to remain in the EU rather than wanting a 2nd stab at independence when there is evidence of manipulating the vote which I have provided.

Mistermeaner

CLAPTON wrote: »

obviously we can't say for sure what the Uk or EU might do.
But it seems to me that its almost inconceivable for a fence or permanent checkpoints between Eire and NI. Maybe some random stop and search but not much else.

I would image the same between england and scotland assuming scotland wasn't deliberately obstructive.

This is much how the swiss border works with its EU neighbours,

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

The trade the rUK would lose in an iScotland scenario is irrelevant in this discussion since the decision to become iScotland isn't in the hands of the people in the rest of the UK.

Scotland is in this position because in 2014 you voted to remain a member of the UK. You didn't vote to remain a member of the UK - but only if you remain in the EU. That caveat was not on the ballot paper. Therefore you were involved in the decision making process and the ramifications of a UK wide vote on EU membership.

If Brexit results in no single market membership, Scotland will seek independence according to Sturgeon.

No single market membership means no free trade, at least until a free trade deal Canada style can be thrashed out, if at all.

An iScotland leaving the UK and joining the EU, whilst the rUK leaves the EU will result in trade barriers and tariffs.

It's unlikely the people of the rUK will simply sit idly by and allow their exports to be subjected to tariffs and not levy similar tariffs on EU imports. That would be charity of no benefit to the people of the rUK.

So iScotland will have a £9bn deficit, if you include all North Sea oil and gas revenues, although I suspect there will be some negotiation around how that is split up. But lets assume Scotland gets all of it (best case). Then there's the reduction in trade with your largest trading partner, that will result in loss of jobs and tax revenue.

To maintain public spending taxes would need to rise.

For taxes not to rise to eye watering levels iScotland would need to cut services dramatically. Possibly losing the NHS?

It's likely that iScotland would as part of negotiations of breaking up the UK have to take on its share of UK debt. So you'll need to finance that too.

The majority of Scottish industry is made up of small traders. They won't be able to pop across the border to ply their trade in the UK without paying for the privilege. So they would need to re-orient to the continent. In such circumstances these small traders will need to arrange transport to the continent and Ireland. By sea or by air because over land you'll probably need to pay for the privilege too. Increasing costs to these small traders will see some go out of business (job losses) and will see prices increase when wages are stagnating, but falling in real terms due to tax increases.

It's a recipe for economic disaster. Neither am I saying full-fat Brexit wouldn't be painful for the UK as a whole, I'd prefer EEA/EFTA membership myself.

You've never given a plausible answer to the economic argument and have consistently said I'm making massive assumptions. I would counter that with whilst some of these are assumptions, they are at least reasonable assumptions compared with the assumptions you have put forward.

Such as having a common travel area between iScotland and the rUK if Scotland were in the EU and the UK not having single market membership.

Such as the assumption that the SNP speaks for the entire Scottish populace but not even getting near 50% of the Scottish electorate to vote for them in the Scottish parliament elections.

Such as the assumption that Scottish voters wanted to remain in the UK in 2014 only because the UK was within the EU, because that fits your narrative. There are plenty on here who disagree with you on this.

Such as the assumption that the Remain vote in Scotland was entirely due to 1.6m Scottish people wanting to remain in the EU rather than wanting a 2nd stab at independence when there is evidence of manipulating the vote which I have provided.

You were making massive assumptions in what any future borders and trade would be in the future between an independent Scotland in the EU, and a UK outwith, especially when it's uncertain what kind of Brexit will happen.

I on the other hand, am talking about the realities about what is looking likely to happen politically if the UK goes for a hard Brexit. We're talking at cross purposes.

A hard Brexit would mean the UK would most likely find itself economically( and with trading ) at a huge disadvantage at least for a while. There is a view that for Scotland, Scottish business interests and the Scottish economy that remaining in a UK which is outwith the EU completely, or leaving the UK and remaining in the EU.. is a case of simply choosing which is the best of two very potentially bad and very challenging options.

Politically, it's been clear that Scotland and the rUK have been drifting in very different directions for some time now. Nicola Sturgeon certainly does speak for Scotland, she was elected a few months ago to do just that. On the EU question she is speaking for 62% of the electorate, regardless of any party affiliations those voters have. Scotland does indeed wish to remain in the EU and while you may wish to believe that the vote in 2014 negates that completely. The reality in Scotland is very different and quite the opposite. In fact, there's been a definite swing towards the view of the 2014 vote being negated completely by the Brexit vote. Especially since EU membership was a cornerstone of the No campaign and many ( including EU nationals living in Scotland ) voted No to keep Scotland in the EU.

Again, you might not want to recognise the reality of what I've posted above regarding 2014. But it's a predominant position up here.

We'll all just have to wait and see how Mrs May handles this, and how much she is willing to upset those leave voters who voted on the basis of immigration constraints and 'taking back control'. The EU is saying no FOM, no single market access, no favourable deals. Mrs May's delaying is telling in itself, as is her flip flopping over NI and borders ( a few days before the ref she was in the papers saying Brexit meant inevitable borders between NI and Eire ). I don't ( personally ) think she has a clue what to do next.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You were making massive assumptions in what any future borders and trade would be in the future between an independent Scotland in the EU, and a UK outwith, especially when it's uncertain what kind of Brexit will happen.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

The EU is saying no FOM, no single market access, no favourable deals.

Which is it? Make your mind up.

One fits in with the situation I've described to you many, many times.

The other is where I'm apparently making massive assumptions.

I know you're aware that iScotland won't come to pass if there is single market membership. So given we're discussing the merits of the arguments for/against iScotland we must assume that you're going to get the vote.

I'm still saying as I've always said, iScotland is lunacy in the parameters that have been set down by the EU and Sturgeon.

ash28

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

No single market membership means no free trade, at least until a free trade deal Canada style can be thrashed out, if at all.

An iScotland leaving the UK and joining the EU, whilst the rUK leaves the EU will result in trade barriers and tariffs.

It's unlikely the people of the rUK will simply sit idly by and allow their exports to be subjected to tariffs and not levy similar tariffs on EU imports. That would be charity of no benefit to the people of the rUK.

If the UK leaves the EU without a deal it will definitely result in tariffs.

If we leave without a deal we aquire "most favoured nation" status with the WTO, and can't impose tariffs or barriers on EU countries without imposing those same tariffs and barriers on every other nation we trade with.

Most favoured nation isn't some special status, it is about discrimination.

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm

Most-favoured-nation (MFN): treating other people equally Under the WTO agreements, countries cannot normally discriminate between their trading partners. Grant someone a special favour (such as a lower customs duty rate for one of their products) and you have to do the same for all other WTO members.

The EU, however is a recognised RTA (Regional Trade Agreement) and is able to discriminate on trade access to what are termed "third countries", which the UK will become if it has no deal on exit. And the tariffs are applied automatically.

https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/region_e.htm

And

Third country duty”, customs duty applicable to all imports originating in a non-EU country, as defined in the Combined Nomenclature;

http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/customs/customs_duties/tariff_aspects/customs_tariff/index_en.htm

So in essence, according to WTO regulation we won't be able to apply tariffs to EU imports without applying those same tariffs to all other imports, so it would seem EU imports could continue as before and with out a deal our exports to the EU would carry a tariff.