The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

robin61

zagubov wrote: »

You should give up worrying about Scotland- you've got so many they're starting to cancel each other out and a lot of them are imaginary. Worrying about how we in the rest of the UK are going to cope with an unplanned Brexit’s the real issue.

I am sure that my life will carry on pretty much as usual whatever happens in Scotland. But I do feel very sorry for the significant number of Scots who do not support the SNP potentially having their lives turned upside down. That isn' t the same thing as being worried about Scotland.

Brexit is small beer compared to what Scotland would be taking on and the chances are that they will be out of the EU no matter which way they jump. Talk about a wing and a prayer ? I am very pleased that my hard earned is not invested in Scotland.

Good luck to them all. I think they will need it if they go down this route.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I'll wait and see what happens with NI likely setting a precedent for Scotland/Westminster to follow re borders and trade.

NI is completely different. You know that, so does everyone else. If there's a free trade agreement between non-EU UK and the EU then none of this will come to pass.

If there is no deal and Scotland votes for independence, you know what awaits you, it's been explained, Scotland will follow EU rules and regulations. That's what you'll be voting for.

How can Scotland, a sovereign EU member trade with the UK freely but France not? Germany not? Ireland not? I think these countries have a bit more clout in the EU than Scotland will. Cloud cuckoo land.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You're making and incredible amount of assumptions based on absolutely nothing. Article 50 hasn't even been invoked yet ( if it ever is ) and already you've got hard border controls set up between Scotland/England and NI. You have no idea what's going to happen. Strugeon, who represents Scotland in a global capacity ( she IS the First Minister of Scotland after all ).. has set out her stall. I have no idea and am happy to say so, that I don't know what's going to happen next, which is why I'm always careful to say IF Scotland gets taken out of the EU.

But at least she's set out her parameters. I have no idea how the PM is possibly going to keep Leavers, remainers, Scotland, NI, Gibraltar and Spain all happy. A Brexit so light we don't even notice the difference ?

The situation in which you will get an independence vote - as laid out by Sturgeon - is if there is no single market membership. And in that situation an independent Scotland in the EU will have free trade with the EU but not with the rest of the UK.

I wouldn't presume to think that Nicola Sturgeon represents all Scots. I'm sure she'd like to think she does based on 25% of the Scottish electorate. Wasn't that less than the Conservatives, yet all and sundry was having a go at them for not representing the people of the UK. I guess percentages work differently in Scotland, a bit like this 64% of trade not being a problem.

zagubov

I suppose as this is a thread which incorporates Scotland's autonomy into its very being, it's inevitable that we end up focussing on independence, but there's many a slip between cup and lip.

Let's look at this step by step. The (somewhat disorganised) Brexit campaign takes the free market's attitude to planning to a somewhat worrying level where we're undergoing a major realignment of our global positioning in what may have been largely a fit of pique.

The UK now has to negotiate an exit deal which I have heard described on the media today by a Brexiter as being an attempt to separate freedom of trade from freedom of movement which sounds about as plausible as saying we want to take goods from a shop without there being a corresponding system for money to change hands between us. Good luck with that, let us know how that magic happens.

However if a more sensible and modest compromise does happen maybe it'll allow enough market access with an acceptable level of movement of people to keep the UK solvent.

Maybe the UK will be worth staying in. I expect the SNP to be all over this like a rash, and it's likely no indyref will happen.

Or a system of constitutional reform allows a looser union to be partly in and partly out. Still no indeyref.

And finally if there is no way of Scotland enjoying the benefit of the wider market, opinion polls may not show a consistent 60% majority for yes. Still no indyref.

So no reason for everybody to get their undergarments in a twist.

As usual it all depends on how badly the unionist side present their case. If it sounds as anti-Scottish as the pre-2014 campaign, then anything could happen. But surely the unionist side won'd be daft enough this time to reanimate all that toxic "too wee, too poor too stupid" guff. Surely?

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

NI is completely different. You know that, so does everyone else. If there's a free trade agreement between non-EU UK and the EU then none of this will come to pass.

It's not. It's a part of the UK which voted to Remain. NI can call a re-unification referendum any time they want as per terms of the Good Friday agreement. ( ie leave the UK in order to Remain in the EU ).

Theresa May has been laying the red carpet out stating that there will be no borders between Ireland and NI even if the UK leaves the EU. Either May is about to fudge Brexit and do a deal whereby freedom of movement is still an option in order to retain Single Market Access. Or she's living in la-la land talking about no borders ever. She knows like Scotland, triggering Article 50 without FOM/Single Market Access that she's going to have to deal with NI, as well as Scotland leaving the UK. *

If there is no deal and Scotland votes for independence, you know what awaits you, it's been explained, Scotland will follow EU rules and regulations. That's what you'll be voting for.

I think we get that. We've been doing so for the last 4 decades.

How can Scotland, a sovereign EU member trade with the UK freely but France not? Germany not? Ireland not? I think these countries have a bit more clout in the EU than Scotland will. Cloud cuckoo land.

As much clout as anyone else. Slovakia can veto any UK leaving deal. All members are equal aren't they ? As for trade within the UK if Scotland goes independent, Scotland buys more than it sells to the rUK. It'll cost you too. Scotland can always go elsewhere to buy tariff free within the Single market, England and Wales on the other hand...You'll still need oil and gas too I presume. Somewhere to site Trident etc. You don't hold ALL the cards. Admittedly, you have a few, but so in turn does Scotland.

The situation in which you will get an independence vote - as laid out by Sturgeon - is if there is no single market membership. And in that situation an independent Scotland in the EU will have free trade with the EU but not with the rest of the UK.

No one knows what's going to happen.

I wouldn't presume to think that Nicola Sturgeon represents all Scots. I'm sure she'd like to think she does based on 25% of the Scottish electorate. Wasn't that less than the Conservatives, yet all and sundry was having a go at them for not representing the people of the UK. I guess percentages work differently in Scotland, a bit like this 64% of trade not being a problem.

She's the First Minister of Scotland, and speaks on Scottish interests the same as the PM speaks on UK matters. So she absolutely does represent all Scots ( whether they like it or no to be frank ).

* I suspect that May will come to an impasse on the FOM/Single Market issue. So she'll try and revoke the Fixed Term Parliament Act and go for an General Election next year based on whatever she feels has the best chance of keeping the Tories in power. If there is to be FOM, and still paying into the EU even on a reduced basis... expect a very large rise in the UKIP vote in Conservative and a fair few Labour leaning areas. Scottish voters won't like that either tbh. England being pulled even further right and the constant threat of FOM restrictions, further EU aggro over rules/regs etc.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

On a not entirely unrelated topic, given the potential of another GE sooner than 2020 - did anyone else watch Owen Smith on TV tonight?

He came across much better than I expected....

It actually occurred to me that there was someone that had a chance of beating the Tories in a near term GE in a way that Corby just doesn't.

Shakethedisease

zagubov wrote: »

I suppose as this is a thread which incorporates Scotland's autonomy into its very being, it's inevitable that we end up focussing on independence, but there's many a slip between cup and lip.

Let's look at this step by step. The (somewhat disorganised) Brexit campaign takes the free market's attitude to planning to a somewhat worrying level where we're undergoing a major realignment of our global positioning in what may have been largely a fit of pique.

The UK now has to negotiate an exit deal which I have heard described on the media today by a Brexiter as being an attempt to separate freedom of trade from freedom of movement which sounds about as plausible as saying we want to take goods from a shop without there being a corresponding system for money to change hands between us. Good luck with that, let us know how that magic happens.

However if a more sensible and modest compromise does happen maybe it'll allow enough market access with an acceptable level of movement of people to keep the UK solvent.

Maybe the UK will be worth staying in. I expect the SNP to be all over this like a rash, and it's likely no indyref will happen.

Or a system of constitutional reform allows a looser union to be partly in and partly out. Still no indeyref.

And finally if there is no way of Scotland enjoying the benefit of the wider market, opinion polls may not show a consistent 60% majority for yes. Still no indyref.

So no reason for everybody to get their undergarments in a twist.

As usual it all depends on how badly the unionist side present their case. If it sounds as anti-Scottish as the pre-2014 campaign, then anything could happen. But surely the unionist side won'd be daft enough this time to reanimate all that toxic "too wee, too poor too stupid" guff. Surely?

They are and they will. The Scottish Tories are already going in great guns on Tricky's arguments re trade Scotland/UK/losing largest trading partner etc. I think it's the only thing that's left.

It's far too soon for another independence referendum in Scotland. But then no one expected a Brexit vote. Needs must if it means just having to 'go along with' leaving the EU in order to keep folks like string and Tricky happy so that in a few years time, Scots can be even bigger scrounging jocks than they are now as another round of austerity bites.

Theresa May has got some big and unpleasant choices ahead. She's not going to get FOM controls AND access to the Single market. Imo she'll go for the Single Market ( when it's Conservatives it usually comes down to money and big business interests ). Sturgeon won't go for a ref until she's sure she can win it so she's played things pretty cool so far. Rightly so imo. Like you say, step by step.

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

On a not entirely unrelated topic, given the potential of another GE sooner than 2020 - did anyone else watch Owen Smith on TV tonight?

He came across much better than I expected....

It actually occurred to me that there was someone that had a chance of beating the Tories in a near term GE in a way that Corby just doesn't.

I didn't see the programme, but I did see a lot of what you said above on Twitter re his performance. Came across a lot better than expected etc. Corbyn still miles ahead in Labour member polling though I believe. Maybe tonight will bump Smith up a bit. He's Welsh though, EVEL means as a potential PM he won't be able to take a full part in voting in HOC on certain issues. Right wing press would go to absolute town on that.

cells

Shakethedisease wrote: »

They are and they will. The Scottish Tories are already going in great guns on Tricky's arguments re trade Scotland/UK/losing largest trading partner etc. I think it's the only thing that's left.

It's far too soon for another independence referendum in Scotland. But then no one expected a Brexit vote. Needs must if it means just having to 'go along with' leaving the EU in order to keep folks like string and Tricky happy so that in a few years time, Scots can be even bigger scrounging jocks than they are now as another round of austerity bites.

Theresa May has got some big and unpleasant choices ahead. She's not going to get FOM controls AND access to the Single market. Imo she'll go for the Single Market ( when it's Conservatives it usually comes down to money and big business interests ). Sturgeon won't go for a ref until she's sure she can win it so she's played things pretty cool so far. Rightly so imo. Like you say, step by step.

I voted stay but I think the UK will have a good chance at economic success no matter what the road we take. Big brother USA will give us a hand as it can't afford the UK to become a country in continuous recession or worse yet a depression and collapse. The same will surely apply to the EU would they want a weak poor UK or do they need a strong rich UK to keep up its >2% of GDP to military expenses and build a trident fleet and carriers which not only protect england but most of Europe.

I think a deal can be reached to get rid of free movement and keep full market access for potentially as low as £1B a year. If that is what happens I'd regret voting stay as it would be an overall good deal.

More than £2B a year for access and I think it might be better to just walk out completely. A free trade deal with China India USA and other countries might be a bigger prize than free trade with the EU27.


I'm fairly sure the Tories wont accept any free movement. If the EU doesnt compromise there it might be a full divorce

Shakethedisease

cells wrote: »

I voted stay but I think the UK will have a good chance at economic success no matter what the road we take. Big brother USA will give us a hand as it can't afford the UK to become a country in continuous recession or worse yet a depression and collapse. The same will surely apply to the EU would they want a weak poor UK or do they need a strong rich UK to keep up its >2% of GDP to military expenses and build a trident fleet and carriers which not only protect england but most of Europe.

I think a deal can be reached to get rid of free movement and keep full market access for potentially as low as £1B a year. If that is what happens I'd regret voting stay as it would be an overall good deal.

Half the EU would be stampeding to the door if such a favourable deal to the UK was made. Marie Le Pen at the forefront in France. Hollande, Merkel and Juncker know this.

More than £2B a year for access and I think it might be better to just walk out completely. A free trade deal with China India USA and other countries might be a bigger prize than free trade with the EU27.

I guess we'll see.

I'm fairly sure the Tories wont accept any free movement. If the EU doesnt compromise there it might be a full divorce

Imo I don't think the EU will compromise. There's been enough signalling so far to say that they won't. Everyone has trotted out the same story in the EU across the board since the vote ( no negotiations before Article 50, no Single Market access without FOM ). As for the Tories, I think it will depend on London and what kind of hit will be taken there in financial services. If there's one thing to be said about the Tories, is that they always, always follow the money. They won't countenance a disaster for the City if they can avoid it at all. Not so bothered about upsetting Labour leaning voters in Sunderland et al however.

Who knows really, is all uncertain until May presses the button.

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

It's not. It's a part of the UK which voted to Remain. NI can call a re-unification referendum any time they want as per terms of the Good Friday agreement. ( ie leave the UK in order to Remain in the EU ).

Theresa May has been laying the red carpet out stating that there will be no borders between Ireland and NI even if the UK leaves the EU. Either May is about to fudge Brexit and do a deal whereby freedom of movement is still an option in order to retain Single Market Access. Or she's living in la-la land talking about no borders ever. She knows like Scotland, triggering Article 50 without FOM/Single Market Access that she's going to have to deal with NI, as well as Scotland leaving the UK. *

I think we get that. We've been doing so for the last 4 decades.

As much clout as anyone else. Slovakia can veto any UK leaving deal. All members are equal aren't they ? As for trade within the UK if Scotland goes independent, Scotland buys more than it sells to the rUK. It'll cost you too. Scotland can always go elsewhere to buy tariff free within the Single market, England and Wales on the other hand...You'll still need oil and gas too I presume. Somewhere to site Trident etc. You don't hold ALL the cards. Admittedly, you have a few, but so in turn does Scotland.

No one knows what's going to happen.



She's the First Minister of Scotland, and speaks on Scottish interests the same as the PM speaks on UK matters. So she absolutely does represent all Scots ( whether they like it or no to be frank ).

* I suspect that May will come to an impasse on the FOM/Single Market issue. So she'll try and revoke the Fixed Term Parliament Act and go for an General Election next year based on whatever she feels has the best chance of keeping the Tories in power. If there is to be FOM, and still paying into the EU even on a reduced basis... expect a very large rise in the UKIP vote in Conservative and a fair few Labour leaning areas. Scottish voters won't like that either tbh. England being pulled even further right and the constant threat of FOM restrictions, further EU aggro over rules/regs etc.

you misunderstand about the Irish border issue

The UK can choose to have no firm border between North and South just as it has had for the last 95 years (except for the partial borders during the troubles). We have allowed the free movement of the Irish for the last 300 years without any problems.

If the Irish choose to build and man a fence that that would be their problem. If they choose to put tariffs on goods then again that's their problem. With brexit we get to choose what we do.