The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Rinoa

CLAPTON wrote: »

seems odd to me to consider access to the EU single market so highly but to give up to free access to the rUK market in exchange

Something like 60% of Scottish 'exports' go to rUK.

So they lose £15Bn and endanger 60% of their exports. And Nicola Sturgeon thinks she has all the bargaining power.

Tromking

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

But she will need to find a solution that involves Scotland, Gibraltar and Northern Ireland retaining the key benefits - free movement for our people and unrestricted full membership of the Single Market - and the closer she makes the UK deal to that the less impetus there will be for the break up of Britain

It might be useful if you think through the ramifications of three regions of the UK staying in the EU and the rUK opting to leave. I'm thinking of the reaction of the rUK if the EU makes a decision be it economic or perhaps more pertinently foreign policy that may be contrary to the UK`s national interest. In our new relationship with the EU there will no room for the political dogs breakfast you suggest. If Scotland wants EU membership its going to have to leave the Union and it won't.

TrickyTree83

What hasn't materialised in any of the information you've put out Hamish is that the SNP loaded the EU referendum die before they were rolled by announcing that if Scotland was "pulled out of the EU against its will" that would trigger another independence referendum. So if you're an independence warrior there's a bias to vote to remain before the votes are even cast, given the last indy ref was so recent it quite literally would have been the only chance to have another crack at indepenedence in their lifetimes I would have thought. For me this situation flies in the face of "Scotland wants to remain in the EU" simply because of what Nicola Sturgeon said, for me she's called into question the validity of the Remain vote in Scotland and should be brought to heel for that.

Should Scotland go it alone and re-apply to join the EU, and lets be honest that's the most likely route back into the arms of the EU, there is no guarantee that these companies will move north of the border at all. I would expect them to move on to the continent since travelling through non-EU rUK to get to Scotland will be a chore which you'll need to be doing unless you take a boat or fly. Seems like a much more sensible choice to locate in France, Germany or the Netherlands - and that's even if they do choose to leave. There is also no guarantee that Scotland will be welcomed back into the EU if the Spanish PM is to be believed. Politics changes and attitudes soften, but the current status quo is that Scotland would be frozen out of the EU.

Then there's the status Scotland would have within the EU. A new member, a Eurozone member. On the hook for bailout monies, with a similar proportion of representation than that of Finland in the EU parliament. There would be a membership fee that would need to be paid and then the question of whether Scotland will be a net beneficiary or not. The share of UK debt that Scotland would need to take on would mean Scotland starts life independently with a handicap. The hard border that will be required with the rest of the UK and the need to comply with UK regulation and possibly tariffs. Scotland will be closer in economic terms to Romania than with the rest of the UK.

This picture looks to me like a diminished iScotland rather than a diminished rUK.

zagubov

Conrad wrote: »

One solution, England and Wales leave the UK now, and as such can leave the EU right away if we so choose

Therefore the UK won't have left the EU, no need for the Article 50 tap dance

Yeah but watch out, that Theresa May that nobody voted in just said she doesn't like independence referenda.

Of course I'm not accusing her of being a bigot but maybe you can find a reason she'd be more tolerant of an English indyref than a Scottish one.

Nah, only joking! :rotfl:

TrickyTree83

zagubov wrote: »

Yeah but watch out, that Theresa May that nobody voted in just said she doesn't like independence referenda.

Of course I'm not accusing her of being a bigot but maybe you can find a reason she'd be more tolerant of an English indyref than a Scottish one.

Nah, only joking! :rotfl:

As stupid as this Conrads statement sounds, it would be fair, if that's what you're after

England hasn't had an indy ref yet, Scotland had one 2 years ago in which both governments agreed to abide by the result regardless of the outcome and with full knowledge of an EU referendum in a Tory manifesto.

Conrad

Hamish, lots of countries export more into the EU than us, with no trade deal, you are just a cult member and incredibly narrow, your loss.

I couldn't care less if socialist Scotland tries it's luck sucking on a dead teat, be my guest. Leave us progressives to the future path

However in reality scots are canny and courageous and will vote to stay in the UK once they see what's were building. Ruth Davidson will win the day as she becomes a committed brexiteer

Do you know what the common man was first given the vote, the establishment framed it a jump into the unknown. Sounds familiar right?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Conrad wrote: »

Hamish, lots of countries export more into the EU than us, with no trade deal,

Once again you completely fail to understand the difference between trade deals and membership of the single market.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

What hasn't materialised in any of the information you've put out Hamish is that the SNP loaded the EU referendum die before they were rolled by announcing that if Scotland was "pulled out of the EU against its will" that would trigger another independence referendum. So if you're an independence warrior there's a bias to vote to remain before the votes are even cast, given the last indy ref was so recent it quite literally would have been the only chance to have another crack at indepenedence in their lifetimes I would have thought. For me this situation flies in the face of "Scotland wants to remain in the EU" simply because of what Nicola Sturgeon said, for me she's called into question the validity of the Remain vote in Scotland and should be brought to heel for that.

You're attempting to mind read an entire electorate and failing badly. Sturgeon laid her cards on the table as far as an EU vote was concerned as soon as she became leader in 2014. Everyone knew what they were voting for. Which is more than can be said for many other contributors to the EU debate in the run up to the vote.

Should Scotland go it alone and re-apply to join the EU

May said that Brexit meant Brexit... Sturgeon said Remain means Remain. There is no intention whatsoever to leave the EU and then re-apply.

There is also no guarantee that Scotland will be welcomed back into the EU if the Spanish PM is to be believed. Politics changes and attitudes soften, but the current status quo is that Scotland would be frozen out of the EU.

The Spanish PM only has a problem as long as Scotland is in the UK. An independent Scotland Spain will be absolutely fine with. They've welcomed many newly independent countries to the EU in recent years. No reason Scotland should be any different.

. The share of UK debt that Scotland would need to take on would mean Scotland starts life independently with a handicap. The hard border that will be required with the rest of the UK and the need to comply with UK regulation and possibly tariffs. Scotland will be closer in economic terms to Romania than with the rest of the UK.

Scotland doesn't have any debt. Westminster has already acknowledged this. Any debt share Scotland agrees to take on with independence will depend on negotiations. Legally and technically Scotland leaving the UK would have no debt. Morally of course is a different story, there's no denying that.

Shakethedisease

Conrad wrote: »

However in reality scots are canny and courageous and will vote to stay in the UK once they see what's were building. Ruth Davidson will win the day as she becomes a committed brexiteer

You've missed out all the EU nationals who aren't Scots who will vote Yes next time ( they had no vote in the EU ref ). As well as gawd knows how many traditional Labour voters who cannot stomach the thought of another 10 or 15 years of Conservative governments ( there's only so far they can be pushed to keep a union in which they can look forward only to Tories I'm afraid )... added also to those like Hamish who consider EU membership important, or who voted No in 2014 on the basis of staying in the EU.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Scotland doesn't have any debt. Westminster has already acknowledged this. Any debt share Scotland agrees to take on with independence will depend on negotiations. Legally and technically Scotland leaving the UK would have no debt. Morally of course is a different story, there's no denying that.

That is correct to a point.

An iScotland leaving the UK, and outwith the EU, that repudiated it's share of the debt would very much struggle to survive without a central bank and formal currency union.

However an iScotland that remains in the EU, that (with some short term budget cuts to get to the 3% deficit target) could choose to join the Euro and fall under the ECB remit as a backstop, well that is altogether a different story.

Scotland in those circumstances has a materially stronger negotiating hand with the UK - as the debt/currency negotiating position now swings much more towards Scotland than previously was the case.

rUK would be crucified by the markets if losing Scotland resulted in an instant 10% increase in the already dangerously high debt to GDP ratio - and that would demolish any ability of the UK Treasury to spend their way out of the looming DIY recession.

The UK govt's Brexit plans would be in tatters...

Scotland would of course have an £8bn a year fiscal black hole to fill - but with thousands of companies, and hundreds of thousands of their employees, flooding across the border to remain in the single market - that hole would be filled quickly enough.