The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Svein_Forkbeard

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No deal Brexit or Scotland out of single market = Scotland goes to the polls on independence. Either via a referendum or a Scottish GE.

Well one or both of the above will happen.

Then I will accept your call for an independence vote as long as there is a clause in there saying that you can't have another vote for 30-50 years.

But I still don't understand the Nats keenness to replace the perceived yoke of British rule with EU rule. Bunch of deranged masochists that have time and time again been shown to be incapable of running a pith up in a brewery.

So your vote for independence will fail once again.

Shakethedisease

You'd think the BBC had some sort of agenda or something here.. there were some furious SNP MSP's yesterday it seems. With an alert reader who's noticed similarities for the last few years running on BBC reports regarding GERS.

Wheelhouse MSP
This is disgraceful @BBCNews - Your presenter clearly states that GERS says “...the Scottish Government last year spent nearly £13.5Bn more than it raised...”. This is a really serious factual error & I expect to see a equally prominent/high profile apology to@DerekMackaySNP.



The Scottish Government’s entire budget = just over half of the total amount of taxes raised in Scotland (£60Bn in 2017/18). The deficit figures are after UK Govt spend on pensions, welfare and cost of UK national debt service, Trident nukes et al are added in!

The headlines are the same every year. Here are Jackie Bird's opening lines from GERS day reporting Scotland in 2016 and 2017. I complained, they conceded they were wrong yet they persist.

So yes, definitely big shoulder so what shrugs all round. We've been fed exactly the same ( literally ) lines on GERS every year since about 2012. It's all CRAP anyway.

GERS really is CRAP

GERS is very poor accounting because it fails to use the same basis for accounting for revenue and expenditure, which builds in an automatic, and I think significant, bias to overstate the Scottish government deficit. ..


..And table B.2, published this morning, confirms this to be true. Look at the table of comparisons for revisions to Scottish and UK data and you will see that, as always happens, there are some revisions to UK data but the revisions to Scottish data are very much bigger in proportion, and the largest overall UK provision actually relates to a Scottish tax. In other words, GERS really is CRAP.

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2018/08/22/gers-really-is-crap/

Shakethedisease

Svein_Forkbeard wrote: »

Well one or both of the above will happen.

Then I will accept your call for an independence vote as long as there is a clause in there saying that you can't have another vote for 30-50 years.

But I still don't understand the Nats keenness to replace the perceived yoke of British rule with EU rule. Bunch of deranged masochists that have time and time again been shown to be incapable of running a pith up in a brewery.

So your vote for independence will fail once again.

But a vote there must be given the last two referendums ( Stay in UK and stay in EU ). Scotland must choose whether it's economic and political future lies within the UK or within the Single Market/EU/Efta. It can no longer have both.

It doesn't matter whether you understand it or not. The Scottish Govt is determined that Scottish citizens will have a real say on the matter. Only possible via the ballot box and there won't be any clauses re 50 years.

Tromking

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Also, and am genuinely interested here. But why do you think strongly pointing out just how s**t Westminster is at running the majority of Scotland's economy.... is actually a fantastic and persuasive reason for Westminster continuing to do so ? :rotfl:
.

I’m not sure Scotland’s penchant for extra public spending enabled by an outdated funding formula is an example of Westminster being s**t for Scots. I think England has more a gripe in that regard.
Independence still looks a borderline impossible sell to me.

Nasqueron

Shakethedisease wrote: »

But a vote there must be given the last two referendums ( Stay in UK and stay in EU ). Scotland must choose whether it's economic and political future lies within the UK or within the Single Market/EU/Efta. It can no longer have both.

It doesn't matter whether you understand it or not. The Scottish Govt is determined that Scottish citizens will have a real say on the matter. Only possible via the ballot box and there won't be any clauses re 50 years.

How many votes do the SNP anticipate having until they get the result they want? Will they accept another vote in case people decide leave isn't working and want to rejoin the UK given they don't accept the first vote that said remain?

Leave hasn't been ahead in the polls since March 2017 (a single poll from 4 that month) despite the EU referendum etc. Don't forget while Scotland did vote remain, 38% of the voters still said they wanted to leave which is a substantial amount.

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask#line

Shakethedisease

Just watching BBC News. The newreader (13.21pm ) has just had to read out an apology and correction for this nonsense they ran with as headlines all day yesterday.

Wheelhouse MSP
This is disgraceful @BBCNews - Your presenter clearly states that GERS says “...the Scottish Government last year spent nearly £13.5Bn more than it raised...”. This is a really serious factual error & I expect to see a equally prominent/high profile apology to@DerekMackaySNP.

Shakethedisease

Nasqueron wrote: »

How many votes do the SNP anticipate having until they get the result they want? Will they accept another vote in case people decide leave isn't working and want to rejoin the UK given they don't accept the first vote that said remain?

Leave hasn't been ahead in the polls since March 2017 (a single poll from 4 that month) despite the EU referendum etc. Don't forget while Scotland did vote remain, 38% of the voters still said they wanted to leave which is a substantial amount.

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask#line

I'm afraid as long as people in Scotland keep voting the SNP in on manifesto stances such as 'another referendum/material change/being taken out of the EU against our will' etc etc. Then as many votes as are in any future manifesto's on which they are then elected on. That the SNP push for Scottish independence can hardly be shocking news to people. :rotfl:

As for polls, they tend to change during campaigns. Snapshots of a moment in time not future predictions. They've been wrong a lot lately too haven't they ? Brexit and Labour's GE performance only the most recent indicators as to their reliability to predict results ( they got it wrong ). Scotland's EU support is going up so even that 38% is now reduced.

Either the UK stays in the Single Market or there's a vote for Scotland coming up really soon. Johnson challenging for PM would just put the icing on the cake.. and indeed the last time the polls indicated a massive surge in independence support was just after the Brexit vote and there was a distinct possibility of Johnson as PM.

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

I’m not sure Scotland’s penchant for extra public spending enabled by an outdated funding formula is an example of Westminster being s**t for Scots. I think England has more a gripe in that regard.
Independence still looks a borderline impossible sell to me.

I think Brexit is proving to be just as impossible to sell. A difficult choice of two uncertain futures. But only one with full economic control and no ( Scotland where's that ? ) Tories in charge... I can't imagine which one would appeal more.

Nasqueron

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I'm afraid as long as people in Scotland keep voting the SNP in on manifesto stances such as 'another referendum/material change/being taken out of the EU against our will' etc etc. Then as many votes as are in any future manifesto's on which they are then elected on. That the SNP push for Scottish independence can hardly be shocking news to people. :rotfl:

As for polls, they tend to change during campaigns. Snapshots of a moment in time not future predictions. They've been wrong a lot lately too haven't they ? Brexit and Labour's GE performance only the most recent indicators as to their reliability to predict results ( they got it wrong ). Scotland's EU support is going up so even that 38% is now reduced.

Either the UK stays in the Single Market or there's a vote for Scotland coming up really soon. Johnson challenging for PM would just put the icing on the cake.. and indeed the last time the polls indicated a massive surge in independence support was just after the Brexit vote and there was a distinct possibility of Johnson as PM.

The polls said Remain would win in Indy Ref, so it proved. There is a consistent trend of Remain being ahead and leave are not closing the gap. SNP will not dare actually have a vote they will lose as they'll never get a chance again

A poll last week from the Independent newspaper showed support for leave is still 34% in Scotland, 4% down is not really a massive change!

The SNP tried every trick in the book to try and win the vote including bending every rule they could:

1) A biased question towards leave that they were forced to change
2) Allowing 16/17 year old voters as they thought they would vote leave
3) Holding it in the year of the 400th anniversary of Bannockburn just after the Commonwealth games (where Scotland compete as independents)
4) Lying constantly about staying in the EU, keeping the pound, oil revenues, NATO etc

Svein_Forkbeard

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I think Brexit is proving to be just as impossible to sell.

Well we had a vote on that question and the country voted to leave so totally irrelevant.