The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

Crashy_Time wrote: »

People will see the Aberdeen slow down and just vote to stay in the safety of a larger union,..... as they did last time, with oil at bubble price levels. Can`t see people voting for an independent Scotland in WORSE economic times than the last time they didn`t vote for it?

Well I made this point earlier in this tread.

That for all the shouting that the SNP and its support does the statistics still show that it's support hasn't really risen since the last indy ref. It seems to hover around 45%. The EU ref result would need to shift 6% of the vote to be successful. And that is assuming that all the SNP voters agree with leaving the Union and re-applying to join the EU with that spectre of a veto hanging over them.

HornetSaver

As I've said before and will no doubt say again, the only way Scotland does not, at some stage, leave the EU, is if they win a referendum before Article 50 goes too far, Westminster accept the inevitability of Scotland's independence, and the two governments work together to get a mutually acceptable deal out of Article 50 (which requires only a qualified majority and can therefore avoid the Spanish veto). The EU can demonstrate that the UK is worse off as a result due to loss of territory, and therefore a good faith negotiation is an easier sell to the other 27 countries' voters.

Tromking

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I am the opposite of an ultra nationalist - but the UK is completely and utterly stuffed economically outside the EU and single market - so given the choice between staying in the UK or staying in the single market Scotland should choose the latter.

The economic shock for Scotland if it left the UK is far greater than they'd suffer if they stuck around in a non EU UK surely?

.string.

See this from another thread

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Tromking wrote: »

The economic shock for Scotland if it left the UK is far greater than they'd suffer if they stuck around in a non EU UK surely?

If the uk leaves the single market and Scotland finds a way to stay in it then exactly the opposite.

The economic shock for the uk leaving will exceed that of the 2008 recession - you're talking severe impact on GDP, mass unemployment, an exodus of companies into the EU, and a really material hit to govt revenue from the loss of city taxation if financial services lose their passporting rights.

It would be utter carnage - and Scotland could steal really significant trade, jobs and investment away from rUK and emerge in a much better place

baldelectrician

This


Mariano Rajoy comes from Galicia, and represents the city of A Coruña in the Spanish parliament, the Cortes. The mainstay of the local economy is the fishing industry, and big fishing interests are the main funders of Rajoy’s own local party. The Galician fishing fleet depends on its access to Scottish waters in order to feed Spain’s enormous appetite for seafood, and any attempt by Spain to veto Scottish membership of the EU would threaten that access. Rajoy would then find that his local party’s bank balance was as empty as the fish counter in a Spanish supermarket. He’s not going to let that happen.
So don’t believe anyone who tells you that Spain will veto Scotland’s membership of the EU. It’s an argument that’s as rank and rotten as two year old fish.




From here
https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2016/06/25/an-argument-as-rank-and-rotten-as-a-two-year-old-fish/


So, to sum up- Scotland not in EU = Scottish waters not covered by CFP = hit for Spanish fishing industry.


So I think Spain will be un likely to veto Scottish entry

Tromking

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

If the uk leaves the single market and Scotland finds a way to stay in it then exactly the opposite.

The economic shock for the uk leaving will exceed that of the 2008 recession - you're talking severe impact on GDP, mass unemployment, an exodus of companies into the EU, and a really material hit to govt revenue from the loss of city taxation if financial services lose their passporting rights.

It would be utter carnage - and Scotland could steal really significant trade, jobs and investment away from rUK and emerge in a much better place

I think your guilty of imagining the worst case Brexit scenario for the rUK and the best case for an iScotland still in the EU.
Why doesn`t the certain immediate fiscal blackhole and the malicious divorce from a country that Scotland does 90% of its trade with not trump what are your worst case assumptions in the event of Brexit?

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

If the uk leaves the single market and Scotland finds a way to stay in it then exactly the opposite.

The economic shock for the uk leaving will exceed that of the 2008 recession - you're talking severe impact on GDP, mass unemployment, an exodus of companies into the EU, and a really material hit to govt revenue from the loss of city taxation if financial services lose their passporting rights.

It would be utter carnage - and Scotland could steal really significant trade, jobs and investment away from rUK and emerge in a much better place

surely most of the English would go north and scotland would boom with all the new people and jobs that they will create; as a bonus they will start a new party called ..lets say.. tories and sweep Nicola from power
so not ll bad news then

elantan

Allegedly EasyJet have been in touch with the EU to start arrangements for moving their headquarters out of the UK ... if this is true ... the exodus begins....

Rinoa

Meanwhile, Michael Gove hints at axing the Barnett formula.

Still, as Shakey has always said, you didn't want it anyway.

http://www.cityam.com/244597/scottish-national-party-hits-out-suggestions-michael-gove