The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shaka_Zulu

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

What's not right is that this GE is being construed as a binary question on independence.
It's not.

But, but, but.................the GE is not a binary questuion..........?!?!?

Of course it is!

Have some balls and go with it..........but you can't because your feart!

kabayiri

Some welcome news for the Nats.

Peston interpreted an answer from Corbyn as meaning he wouldn't rule out a 2nd Scottish indy ref.

The Nat view on here has so far been that it is the Tories destroying the Union, when in actual fact it might be Corbyn who facilitates this, with a government held together with promises made to the Nats.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kabayiri wrote: »

it might be Corbyn who facilitates this, with a government held together with promises made to the Nats.

Just the opposite.

As a coalition government would be highly likely to leave the EU but stay in the Single Market.

In those circumstances it's unlikely we'd see Indyref2 happen at all.

And if it did happen Sturgeon would almost certainly lose.

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Just the opposite.

As a coalition government would be highly likely to leave the EU but stay in the Single Market.

In those circumstances it's unlikely we'd see Indyref2 happen at all.

And if it did happen Sturgeon would almost certainly lose.

I agree. This second ref call and the urgency of it is all about staying in the Single Market rather than independence just for the sake of it. The SNP genuinely believe that leaving it would be catastrophic for Scottish interests ( as well as UK interests ).

IF Corbyn leads a minority govt - the SNP won't go into coalition - then Sturgeon is hardly going to be too upset that he intends implementing a lot of policies that they themselves have already implemented in Scotland. They'll be fully behind those and would likely use what leverage they have to gain more devolved powers which they are after. Also without the immediate threat of an indy ref to garner unionists in Scotland, Davidson's Tory party would revert to previous levels of support. She has no other policies and her popularity depends on an indy ref on the cards.

It all depends on what Corbyn goes for re the Single Market. While he's against an second ref, and independence.. he at least, for now has recognised that the Scottish Parliament has a mandate to hold a vote. Sturgeon would be quite happy to wait it out for a bit if the UK stays in the Single Market, then let demographics and the next Conservative govt looking like getting in do the work for her ( or whoever is leader at the time ).

All hypotheticals right now though. The polls are all over the place so who knows what's really going on.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Agreed - the polls are a rollercoaster at the moment - but we'll see in a week.

Based on current polling there appears little chance of a Corbyn government - Tories would either have a slim majority (embarrassing) or be the largest party in a hung parliament and likely remain as a minority government but forced into less extreme positions on a range of issues (better solution for the country I suspect).

However even in the unlikely event the Tories lose and Corbyn is next PM - again, it would have to be in coalition or with a supply and confidence deal issue by issue - which would make it impossible for him to go hard left on the nation. So this would also be a tolerable outcome.

Either way - if any party wants to preserve the Union just leave the EU but stay in the single market.... That takes Indyref 2 off the table for the foreseeable future.

IveSeenTheLight

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Just the opposite.

As a coalition government would be highly likely to leave the EU but stay in the Single Market.

In those circumstances it's unlikely we'd see Indyref2 happen at all.

And if it did happen Sturgeon would almost certainly lose.

Sturgeon made it very clear that if the negotiations resulted in remaining in the single market, they would take IndyRef2 off the table.

In 2015, the polls were indicating a Hung Parliament, recent polls suggest similar.
So will the Conservatives rally as a result of the recent polls to again secure a majority, else will we see the hung parliament expected in 2015.
What we do not seem to be seeing is the increased majority TM was hoping for.

IveSeenTheLight

Yah_Boo_Sux wrote: »

Aw, and we know you can't cope with binary questions.

I'm very easy with binary questions, when there is a binary question to be answered.

Yah_Boo_Sux wrote: »

Still, blame Nicola. She's the one made it binary in Scotland by putting in the SNP manifesto that if they win a majority of seats they want a second independence referendum.

You should stop living a blinkered life, there are far more issues in all manifestos.

Here's a nice summary of the key points in the SNP manifesto
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40091999

IveSeenTheLight

Shaka_Zulu wrote: »

But, but, but.................the GE is not a binary questuion..........?!?!?

Of course it is!

A binary question means there is only 2 options of answers.

We know going into the Polling booth next week there will be more than two options.

We know, from looking at the manifestos, there are multiple issues and policies which affect the electorates choice.

We accept that for some, there may be one key policy in certain manifestos which they weight more heavily than the other policies, but for most, they recognise that the weighting of all the policies helps determine their individual preference.

So no, the GE is not a binary question

Shaka_Zulu wrote: »

Have some balls and go with it..........but you can't because your feart!

Feart of what?
I will vote and make my preference recorded in the system.
No balls are lost / dropped from my position.

gfplux

I am English and you know where I live.
But on last nights debate I posted elsewhere the following.

The TV debate is over.
Amber Rudd did OK and frankly I suspect May would have struggled.
Corbyn hardly put a foot wrong and once again proving he is not the man described in the media.
Great performances by Tim Farron, Caroline Lucas of the Greens and Angus Robertson of the SNP.
Welsh lady faded as time went on and Paul Nuttal the racist was Paul Nuttal the racist.

I want to add for this Scottish audience that I was not aware of Angus Robertson but I was very impressed by him last night. He came across as solid, clever and knowing his subject. He represented Scotland very well.

IveSeenTheLight

gfplux wrote: »

I want to add for this Scottish audience that I was not aware of Angus Robertson but I was very impressed by him last night. He came across as solid, clever and knowing his subject. He represented Scotland very well.

Indeed, he often holds the government to account in Westminster.

Another reason why voting SNP next week will help to provide a strong opposition voice for Scotland in Westminster.