Nice People Thread No. 15, a Cyber Summer

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Some people who avoided the group think that it just couldn't happen maust have made a lot of money.

I can't speak for other asset managers but our house view was that Remain was the more likely event rather than the only game in town.

Our team's funds, over which I have a tiny bit more influence, were positioned more conservatively so that we made money for our clients from a Brexit.

I called the Brexit win in the office as soon as the Broxbourne and Swindon results came in and we went a bit more defensive after that (don't think my call had anything to do with it). We lost a bit on the defensive position due to some possible changes to betting taxes being announced but we did okay. We also won a new big mandate today too which was the cherry on top!

Other teams were positioned for a Remain win or at least weren't neutral. Some of them will have lost a few bob.

Generali

PasturesNew wrote: »

Market movement's more about gambling and bets though ... normal people wouldn't notice anything happening. Lidl still opened this morning .....

If the pound remained 10% lower than today then you would notice it in the end as imported goods became perhaps 5-7% more expensive. You might not realise why they went up but you would see the increase in price most certainly.

michaels

Generali wrote: »

I can't speak for other asset managers but our house view was that Remain was the more likely event rather than the only game in town.

Our team's funds, over which I have a tiny bit more influence, were positioned more conservatively so that we made money for our clients from a Brexit.

I called the Brexit win in the office as soon as the Broxbourne and Swindon results came in and we went a bit more defensive after that (don't think my call had anything to do with it). We lost a bit on the defensive position due to some possible changes to betting taxes being announced but we did okay. We also won a new big mandate today too which was the cherry on top!

Other teams were positioned for a Remain win or at least weren't neutral. Some of them will have lost a few bob.

Surely the big market moves show that the majority were not pricing in any significant possibility of brexit?

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Surely the big market moves show that the majority were not pricing in any significant possibility of brexit?

I can't speak for any other house but the implication of what happened in that 3/4-5am period is that plenty of money was moving on to a different horse.

Outside the FX market, which dances to its own tune at the best of times, I guess there's an argument that big moves in the FTSE were merely showing a lack of liquidity. After all, how many Japanese or Chinese people will have a really core part of their holdings in the UK? Probably somewhere between few and none.

The collapse in the Quid was really interesting to watch. It's hard to say because almost no FX trades on an exchange but I suspect at times there was no bid for sterling beyond brokers making a market for corporate clients. It really is hard to explain just how mad it was to see a currency fall that far that fast. When I was on the ferry at 8am the pound was up about 1.35% against the dollar. By lunchtime it was down 12%. This is the currency pair, the currency pair from which all others are priced.

bugslet

Jazee wrote: »

Thanks for all your thoughts re OldDog, it was a stroke which took her at the grand old age of 16 but it was still a shock, I still have LittleyDog although she is also looking a bit lost this week.

I lost a schnauzer 4 weeks ago, having another dog is always a good idea. I have four left, though one is the half sister of the other and definitely went into a bit of a trough for a few days.

silvercar wrote: »

Biggest loser I've heard is a guy who phoned lbc radio months ago to say he'd bet £200k on remain to win just £68k. Wiped out all his savings on a "sure bet" he reckoned.

There are rarely times I want to comment that someone is stupid, but, well, muppet!

In a European day, I feel the Italians are not happy, why else would I have a blow out on a truck just north of Genoa? The drivers are definitley not going to get back, they can't drive after today until Sunday evening. Joys of International trucking.

Jazee

bugslet wrote: »

I lost a schnauzer 4 weeks ago, having another dog is always a good idea. I have four left, though one is the half sister of the other and definitely went into a bit of a trough for a few days.



.

Aw sorry to hear that. Our little one didn't eat for two days but is eating again today, still quiet though. We think we may need to get another dog as she's never been alone, gone from three dogs to just the one in just over 2 years.

ivyleaf

What effect do you think Brexit will have on your business, bugslet?

ukmaggie45

GBD, so glad you had good news from the nurse, even if it did take forever!

Good to see you Nikkster - do feel free to come and moan if you want to - it's nice to stay in touch even if there's nothing much to say other than to moan. How's your garden growing? Any further house plans or renovations?

Sad to hear of deaths of furries. Always difficult times - I know some people say "it's only a dog" (or cat or bird) but they really are part of our families. So hugs to you both.

We had another funeral yesterday. The wife of OH's cousin. She was only 61. Cousin and their children devastated. Been treated for Ca for 8 months, but I think it may have been a re-occurrence. The Church Service was really nice, enjoyed it very much (as much as you can enjoy this kind of thing!) so was very happy I could shake the Vicar's hand on the way out and tell him so. He seemed somewhat surprised! Lots of people at the church - over 100 at a guess. In a really fabulous Church.

We didn't manage the Wake, as it was upstairs in a place without a lift, and I simply was past getting up stairs by then.

So that's a cremation (no service, just close family), a Wake and a funeral in 2 weeks. I hope this isn't going to be the new norm for us! :eek:

Spirit_2

Was up in the night to watch the resuts come in but did not have the stamina to see it through. When I heard about the drop in sterling I felt sick, hoped it was just a blip and went to bed.

Awoke this morning apppalled that a campaign based on a race to the bottom and the political ambitions of its frontman had brought about emotionally incontinent voting. The democratic process requires a well informed electorate. A huge disservice to the younger generations by boomers, bigots and Boris.

Spirit_2

Jazee wrote: »

Thanks for all your thoughts re OldDog, it was a stroke which took her at the grand old age of 16 but it was still a shock, I still have LittleyDog although she is also looking a bit lost this week.

Sad times.