stockmarkets -are we nearing the bottom or is there further to go ??

ryannnking

Audaxer wrote: »

Good luck, but I think market timing with individual stocks is very risky.

I am not timing the market whatsoever.

I have a list of stocks that I understand and like, and would purchase if they hit a certain price, and if they do that is when I will buy them. Whether that happens in a bull or bear market does not concern me.

Currently, I own some stocks in a few companies than I am long on and will be holding.

It is impossible to time the market. But I am not going to be stupid and buy Stock XYZ for £100, and gamble on making a gain, when I have calculated Stock XYZ to be, say £75. I will wait for it to drop to that price point and then go in and buy. If it never falls to that level? Oh well, theres thousands of other opportunities, and thats why its good to always be researching!

Sorry if I came across like I was implying I am timing the market. I imagine I have a similar view to you and that is that it is impossible!

Voyager2002

ryannnking wrote: »

I have a list of stocks that I understand and like, and would purchase if they hit a certain price, and if they do that is when I will buy them. Whether that happens in a bull or bear market does not concern me.

Surely the overall state of the economy will affect how much money each of these companies is making (or losing) and hence the price at which you are willing to buy the share.

ryannnking

Voyager2002 wrote: »

Surely the overall state of the economy will affect how much money each of these companies is making (or losing) and hence the price at which you are willing to buy the share.

Thats is true, and a good point.

I guess that is why when there is recessions, and stock prices fall, you have to invest in companies you believe in and believe will bounce back from the recession.

Ryan

Audaxer

Alexland wrote: »

Unless they are stocks in diversified investment trusts in which case buying after a big fall could see the leverage (and possibly discount) really working in your favour as the NAV recovers.

I was thinking more of individual company shares, but I agree some ITs at low values with increasing yields are tempting, especially those that have managed to increase actual dividends year on year for decades.

BananaRepublic

Alexland wrote: »

Unless they are stocks in diversified investment trusts in which case buying after a big fall could see the leverage (and possibly discount) really working in your favour as the NAV recovers.

Alex

I think you missed the point made by the other poster. Generally timing the market does not work because you have no idea which way the market will go. We've seen big falls over the last month or two, but who knows if the markets will continue to fall, or recover. However, in the long run (many years) you are (statistically) correct.

For what it's worth, which is nothing, I see the markets having further to fall, but I have no idea if that will happen over the next month, or if there will be a recovery followed by large falls in a year or two. I'm hoping for further falls over the next months, I like crashes.

coastline

markj113 wrote: »

A boost in temp christmas employment is nothing to get excited about.


Lets see how it looks for January.

January just in...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-gains-304000-jobs-at-start-of-2019-as-firms-continue-to-hire-at-blistering-pace-2019-02-01?

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/nonfarm-payrolls-january-2019.html

Market itself has recovered well over 50% of its recent falls. Could well cool off after the recent rally ?

Thrugelmir

coastline wrote: »

January just in...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-gains-304000-jobs-at-start-of-2019-as-firms-continue-to-hire-at-blistering-pace-2019-02-01?

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/nonfarm-payrolls-january-2019.html

Market itself has recovered well over 50% of its recent falls. Could well cool off after the recent rally ?

Recruitment provides no indication as to profitability.

Alexland

coastline wrote: »

Market itself has recovered well over 50% of its recent falls.

Yes very pleased I increased my equity units as it started sinking lower towards the end of December.

It will soon be time to get completely back to my normal asset allocation.

Alex

coastline

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Recruitment provides no indication as to profitability.

There's certainly a link between job creation and an improving stock market which is what investors want to see.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8bxtu8VP3dY/VXDEyVL8wPI/AAAAAAAACJo/FCe-qLqwZQE/s1600/Stocks%2B%2526%2BJobs.png

https://bullmarkets.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/ic-vs-spx.png

Earnings may have been revised down slightly but that doesn't mean a recession. ? Its nothing new and as we know you can't really judge markets on P/E values alone . All I can see is P/E 10 is cheap and over 20 dear but does that determine the direction of the market ?

https://bullmarkets.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/net.png

Earnings are forecast steady. A decent link to bookmark below.

https://twitter.com/FactSet

Who knows what in store but the recent 20% fall in December might just be the base line for the future.?

poppy10_2

ryannnking wrote: »

I want to also invest in individual stocks, but stocks in my circle of competence, with a competitive advantage and a good management, that are currently on my watchlist, are not at a margin of safety that I am happy with. Hence why I am holding cash for when stock prices come down, at an eventual point.

Are you still holding the cash?