stockmarkets -are we nearing the bottom or is there further to go ??

Snow_Dog

So, for clarity, what you are all saying is...it could go up, but it may go down, and if it does neither then it will stay the same.


Sounds a bit like that thing called the stock market

Voyager2002

Snow_Dog wrote: »

So, for clarity, what you are all saying is...it could go up, but it may go down, and if it does neither then it will stay the same.


Sounds a bit like that thing called the stock market

And remember that different sectors, and the markets in different parts of the world, may perform very differently.

dont_use_vistaprint

Alexland wrote: »

But eventually we all know it can only really go one way. Unless it doesn't....

What it eventually does is completely irrelevant. What it does in my lifetime and the time frame of my goals is all that matters to me

Alexland

Audaxer wrote: »

That seems to be the way it's being going this year.

Yes both equities and bonds have been offering a 'return free risk' for a while now.

Oh well, as time passes it becomes more likely that things will pick up eventually.

But even then there might be some sterling devaluation to unwind back to normal.

dont_use_vistaprint wrote: »

What it eventually does is completely irrelevant. What it does in my lifetime and the time frame of my goals is all that matters to me

Sorry at that point I didn't realise we were still having a sensible up/down conversation!

Alex

short_butt_sweet

dont_use_vistaprint wrote: »

What it eventually does is completely irrelevant. What it does in my lifetime and the time frame of my goals is all that matters to me

"in the long term, we are all dead." -- keynes

sabretoothtigger

I would guess on a bear market medium term. Generally it relates to currency strength and perception on Federal interest rates.

More locally there is Brexit which for me is a reason to buy regularly over the next year or two but thats with the idea it will fall over that time with a long term gain especially as FT100 is not entirely reliant on UK as a market

BananaRepublic

We’ve had a long bull market, a crash is overdue and it looks like various factors are acting as the trigger for a decent correction. I’m glad if we get it over with and in a year or two get back to a more gradual growth. The question as always is when the low point occurs.

MaxiRobriguez

Most major indices have already had the crash. FTSE, DAX, CAC, EM, US are all down ~20% since their highs only a few months ago. I think all are trading around the levels of mid 2017 at the latest?

We're not in a recession yet, and interest rates whilst climbing will still probably be lower than the long term average. There's still every chance of markets declining further because half the battle is human emotion, but if now doesn't represent a buying opportunity when price/forward earnings are cheaper than the 20 year average then those waiting on the sidelines are effectively waiting for a major bear market which is only coming with a major recession. Likelihood of that in the next 2-3 years is probably less than a 5-10% rise in equities in that same time frame I'd guess.

Investing means risk and when to get in/out isn't about showing off your timing skills but it's about managing that risk. Now is a better time to enter the market than three months ago, but people were happier to enter three months ago because things looked calmer.

Alexland

I don't see the market as such a boolean 'are you in or out?' decision and just increase market exposure as the opportunity develops. As stock prices decline my long term expectations improve (as I am buying into a higher proportion of higher growth assets) so it all kinda averages out anyway.

Alex

MaxiRobriguez

Alexland wrote: »

I don't see the market as such a boolean 'are you in or out?' decision and just increase market exposure as the opportunity develops. As stock prices decline my long term expectations improve (as I am buying into a higher proportion of higher growth assets) so it all kinda averages out anyway.

Alex

Yes sorry, didn't mean all in or all out, I meant increasing equity exposure.

I had 85% in equities and 15% in cash on Tuesday having spent six months or so building up cash when markets seemed frothy. Now I'm at 95% equities and 5% cash, and I'll probably keep that split going unless equities recover their losses in the next few months at which point the cash proportion will increase again.