stockmarkets -are we nearing the bottom or is there further to go ??

aroominyork

MaxiRobriguez wrote: »

Bull markets don't die of old age.

Yield curve, declining earnings, Brexit, trade war, interest rake highs, global debt amongst other things are what we know about, and are now priced in.

The only thing not priced in is a severe recession.

Place your bets on when/if you think it occurs.

No, the only thing not priced in is psychology, which is what drives the markets more than anything and which can rear its ugly - or beautiful - head at any time it chooses.

ryannnking

No one knows where and when the bottom will be. But the fact is we are in the longest bull market in history (I believe). And bull markets don't last forever.

I believe it's a good time right now to have some cash, just incase the market does crash, or significantly correct. I am continuing to Dollar Cost Average in each month, but am increasingly wary of investing in single stocks. Not only are stocks seemingly overvalued, offering little Margin of Safety, but the volatility over the last month has been crazy!

If a lot of the 'global issues' go the wrong way - no US/China trade deal, no-deal Brexit and so on, then maybe we will see a bigger drop that what we have seen recently.

Just my two cents on the current market.

Ryan

msallen

YKNA wrote: »

No we have not reached the bottom in my opinion we still have a long way to go and hence I have taken half of my stocks out and gamble on higher stakes with buying crypto currency. Not sure anyone else is but all to their own risk.

So you turned your paper losses into real losses and then piled into crypto?

I won't say no-one else at all has done likewise, but I doubt you'll find many others.

Malthusian

ryannnking wrote: »

But the fact is we are in the longest bull market in history (I believe).

Nope. 1987-2000 was 13 years long, four years longer than this one's current run.

And bear in mind that for 6 of those 13 years, people would have been saying "this is the longest bull market in history" (accurately) "so we should all dump our investments and hold cash", which would have cost them a very large amount of money.

I believe it's a good time right now to have some cash, just incase the market does crash, or significantly correct.

Depends on what you're going to spend it on.

TBC15

YKNA wrote: »

No we have not reached the bottom in my opinion we still have a long way to go and hence I have taken half of my stocks out and gamble on higher stakes with buying crypto currency. Not sure anyone else is but all to their own risk.

If oblivion is your destination stepping out slightly early for the No 7 Bus will make a slightly quicker job of it.

Alexland

Its the classic 'sell low-ish, buy rubbish' technique.

quirkydeptless

Everybody will be fine as long as nobody panics :money:

ryannnking

I didn't realise that bull market lasted 13 years, thanks for informing me.

Regardless, I am still investing every single month into a Global Index Fund. However, I want to also invest in individual stocks, but stocks in my circle of competence, with a competitive advantage and a good management, that are currently on my watchlist, are not at a margin of safety that I am happy with. Hence why I am holding cash for when stock prices come down, at an eventual point.

Really it comes down to the individual and how you calculate a stock's value. DCAing into a fund means you won't miss out on any gains, if they do continue for the next X amount of years. Then when an eventual bear market does happen, that is when I can use my cash to buy individual stocks priced more fairly.

Ryan

Audaxer

ryannnking wrote: »

Then when an eventual bear market does happen, that is when I can use my cash to buy individual stocks priced more fairly.

Good luck, but I think market timing with individual stocks is very risky.

Alexland

Audaxer wrote: »

Good luck, but I think market timing with individual stocks is very risky.

Unless they are stocks in diversified investment trusts in which case buying after a big fall could see the leverage (and possibly discount) really working in your favour as the NAV recovers.

Alex