If we vote for Brexit what happens

indianabones

Just returned from holiday and it's been an interesting read the last few pages of this thread.

There was a comment by AFF8878 2 pages back who said houses were very affordable in the UK and that actually we're not in a crisis. Are people serious when they type this kind of stuff?

saverbuyer

MobileSaver wrote: »

They did have a choice; they can either rent or buy.



Someone who decides to rent will literally spend the rest of their working lives paying for their home.

Someone who decides to buy has an end game... a point at which their home becomes their's, fully paid up and despite whatever else might happen they will always have a roof, their roof, over their heads. It's not rocket science.

I decide to rent for 5 years from 2007. Best decision I ever made. The NI market crashed 60% and I was able to get a better house in the best part of the city I live in. The only end game for my friends who bought while I rented, is paying the negative equity for the next 25 years.


They will literally spend the next 25 years paying off negative equity.


Interestingly, it would still be cheaper for me to rent my house than buy it. I would save £500 a month renting compared to an interest only mortgage. Would be a nice wad of cash in retirement. The OH wanted to buy, so we bought.

Ozzuk

saverbuyer wrote: »

I decide to rent for 5 years from 2007. Best decision I ever made. The NI market crashed 60% and I was able to get a better house in the best part of the city I live in. The only end game for my friends who bought while I rented, is paying the negative equity for the next 25 years.


They will literally spend the next 25 years paying off negative equity.


Interestingly, it would still be cheaper for me to rent my house than buy it. I would save £500 a month renting compared to an interest only mortgage. Would be a nice wad of cash in retirement. The OH wanted to buy, so we bought.

I see where you are coming from but after 25 years they will own that asset completely and could sell then rent. Interest only mortgages make no sense to me as in that situation I'd agree renting would be more sensible. If you rent though, you'll only end up with a big cash pot if you are sensible and save the additional free cash, if there really is any as the vast majority of people pay interest+capital which normally pretty close to rental price (or the landlord wouldn't do it!).

You'll never convince me renting is better than buying but that is because I've always viewed bricks and mortar as not only a good investment, but psychologically as my home that I can pretty much do whatever I want in, and I have 3 dogs which discounts a lot of options. But thats me, if you want the freedom to move then sure renting is a great choice.

But financially, no, you are lining someone elses pockets.

cells

Conrad wrote: »

1.4 million unemployed, they need to do those jobs rather than suffer the indignity of state benefits,

Wages will rise which will help and as to those firms that complain they won't have enough migrants, tough, time to start making relationships with schools and planning for training British youth.....like we used to

Unemployment is NOT 1.4 million. That figure includes short term unemployed too. The actual unemployed figure (for 1 year or more) is closer to 300,000

Most the 1.4 million find jibs within 6 months. They are not available to pick the strawberries or wipe the bums. The working class 'kids' will have to do that once the migrants stop coming.

Businesses won't complain. The labour force will readjust itself by getting rid of the sane number if higher paid skilled jobs. Shelf stackers and bum wipers will still be paid £7.20 an hour just that they will be local working class kids rather than the migrants.

saverbuyer

Ozzuk wrote: »

I see where you are coming from but after 25 years they will own that asset completely and could sell then rent. Interest only mortgages make no sense to me as in that situation I'd agree renting would be more sensible. If you rent though, you'll only end up with a big cash pot if you are sensible and save the additional free cash, if there really is any as the vast majority of people pay interest+capital which normally pretty close to rental price (or the landlord wouldn't do it!).

You'll never convince me renting is better than buying but that is because I've always viewed bricks and mortar as not only a good investment, but psychologically as my home that I can pretty much do whatever I want in, and I have 3 dogs which discounts a lot of options. But thats me, if you want the freedom to move then sure renting is a great choice.

But financially, no, you are lining someone elses pockets.

Depends on where you are. For me, renting is significantly cheaper, but I choose to buy. In N.I. big houses in expensive areas are 9 times out of 10, cheaper to rent. Plus the LL always pays the council tax here.


If you're financially disciplined, then it's an option.


I agree on interest only mortgages, but I was using it as an example of house it can work out cheaper to rent. The majority of landlords here who bought from 2003-2012 are making a loss every month. I took a step back for a few years, paid maybe 40k in rent, but saved 500k in negative equity and mortgage interest.

cells

mrginge wrote: »

Your simplistic logic assumes that the number of low paid jobs is consistent.

Increasing population, low wage inflation and consistent unemployment would suggest otherwise.

Dare I suggest that rather than working class kids moving up skill and pay bands (where did they suddenly get all these new skills from?) they are instead trapped in an increasing number of low-paid jobs?

How many minimum wage baristas are employed today?
How many were there ten years ago?

The UK has 1% long term unemployment and will have 1% long term unemployment in twenty years.

If we import 10million low skilled migrants that creates approximately 6.5 million jobs (depending in the age profile) all across the spectrum from doctors to teachers to solicitors to shelf stackers to everything you can imagine.

The economy thus needs to rearrange its workforce. 6.5 million jobs have been created. But the migrants can only fill the lower quarter of the skill/pay bands. Its then a simple equation. Its not even economics its Mathematics. The locals in the bottom quarter are pushed up the skill and pay bands as they are displaced by the migrants who can only take up those lower jobs


If you are still finding it hard to visualise simply think of it this way. Imagine there are no migrants at all and the UK population grows by 10 million adults in twenty years time. Imagine all those 10 million British adults have speach problems and can't speak very good English. They are capable workers but they have limited language skills. The UK will still have 1% unemployment with or without these Brits who were born with speech problems. They will have to take the lower quarter or Jobs in the economy which means that the non speach problem born Brits will be pushed up bands and grades compared to what would have happened had these speach problem Brits not been born. Of course instead of fovonf birth to ten million speach imared children we are importong ten million not so English language skilled migrants but the outcome is the same.

cells

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The UK is becoming a less skilled workforce. We make far less than we ever did. With some industries non existant.

Nonsense
Nonsense

Conrad

BobQ wrote: »

In theory this should happen but in practice will it? These firms will increasingly turn to automation rather than pay the wages.

In which case society will reap a chill wind - Brexit was in part a warning shot.


We cant just give up on people, we as a community need to ensure fair incomes for all.


Personally I wont use UBER as this is yet another example of global capitalism intruding on what was a decent living opportunity for working class folk, but now a good proportion of London cab fares ends up in the wallets of a handful of elite capitalists in California. I hate the way us unthinking consumers go along with such transfers - this is exactly why capitalism is failing people


The mse impulse is far from a moral impulse, it essentially means whittling away at the jobs and incomes of other citizens so that you / we can get win out.


I do wish we'd all put our money where our mouths are - vain compassion signalling and abstract political rants are no match for personal action - support workers, don't shop around for the cheapest all the time

Conrad

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/breast-cancer-patients-denied-life-saving-43p-treatment-due-to-nhs-funding-dispute-a7321116.html

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

Unemployment is NOT 1.4 million. That figure includes short term unemployed too. The actual unemployed figure (for 1 year or more) is closer to 300,000

Most the 1.4 million find jibs within 6 months. They are not available to pick the strawberries or wipe the bums. The working class 'kids' will have to do that once the migrants stop coming.

Businesses won't complain. The labour force will readjust itself by getting rid of the sane number if higher paid skilled jobs. Shelf stackers and bum wipers will still be paid £7.20 an hour just that they will be local working class kids rather than the migrants.

There is neither theoretical justification nor pragmatic evidence to support this nonsense. You simply have a religious faith that higher population means higher incomes irrespective of any facts of figures.

The market will adjust to a real shortage of labour in many ways:
-Some jobs will increase in price
-some will disappear as not worthwhile (not profitable)
-some will be automated and so increase the overall level of goods and services produced i.e. making us permanently richer per capita
-some part time workers will become full time
-some people not working will decide to work where previously they those not to.

In the case of supporting people who need personal care, it is likely that demand will increase their wages and that a number of coffee shops will close.

In the case of picking strawberries we may need to invent a strawing picking machine, eat fewer strawberries, pick your own, grow your own or import more.

And of course the huge costs of building new infrastructure and the deaths due to delays in the NHS etc will be avoided/mitigated.