If we vote for Brexit what happens

Crashy_Time

glasgowdan wrote: »

That's just lovely crash legend. Sitting up late at night swigging a bottle of red wine on the daily mail site looking for oh so credible articles that anyone cares about other than you? What an image.

Quarter past midnight, late at night? You do come out with some strange observations. It was whisky and coke actually, and certainly not the whole bottle :money:but of course you miss the main point of the post as usual.

mrginge

Moto2 wrote: »

I've already said, I wouldn't favour a further referendum, parliament is elected to make decisions, they've been given a referendum decision, they need to work it out.

It's not for me to see or do anything until the next General Election

I notice you failed to address the first four lines of clapton's post.

Crashy_Time

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-19/two-of-fed-s-own-primary-dealers-warn-shock-hike-awaits-markets

Moto2

mrginge wrote: »

I notice you failed to address the first four lines of clapton's post.

Oh sorry, I don't envisage anything, he seemed to presuming I favoured another referendum so I thought I covered that by repeating that I didn't.
Once they've figured out the scope and terms of the negotiations and if they publish them, I may then have a view of how I think the detail should be debated etc.

setmefree2

Juncker Eyes Swiss-Specific Immigration Deal Despite Brexit

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-19/juncker-eyes-swiss-specific-immigration-deal-despite-brexit

Ozzuk

Crashy_Time wrote: »

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-19/two-of-fed-s-own-primary-dealers-warn-shock-hike-awaits-markets

What is your point? Doesn't necessarily follow UK will raise rates - and even if UK did, it's not necessarily a bad thing. Mortgage offers aren't that good considering the low rates but what you can get on savings is appalling because of it.

Are you also not-buying in America?

Conrad

The EU has 104 trade deals, 53 (depending how you count them) of which many are free trade deals with mainly small states, including plenty the size of San Marino. The Single Market membership deal we have now adds an insignificant value to GDP. The new deal will give very slightly lessor access, but our new autonomy globally, tailor made local democracy and decisions, with no EU fees to pay and cheaper currency means all round we will be far better off. 2012 EU stats show Japan exports almost the same value of services into the EU as we, with NO TRADE DEAL.


http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Trade_in_services,_2008_and_2013_(1)_(billion_EUR)_YB15.png


The pessimists assert the UK is impotent and thus will be handed down an immovable and poor deal from the mighty EU. A begging dog, rather than a powerful influence in the world* with much the EU needs.

(*Canadian Trade Agency is opening an office in London, and the press release says "The agency is confident the UK will remain a global gateway for international business despite the short term difficulties.
Plans for an EDC UK office were unveiled in early 2015 with the goal to take advantage of the UK’s links to Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
In his interview, Dunlope said that the agency took a “long-term” view on the strength of the UK economy and that it was able to see past the destabilising effect of the negotiations surrounding UK’s exit from the EU').


The relentless Bremoaner gloom is predicated on this bizarre notion the EU wants nothing from Britain, indeed Zoe Williams on The DP said British people will accept paying more for German goods, but Germans need nothing from us and so have no need to pay more for our goods, thus tariffs would harm only us!!

We hold many aces in the negotiation such as access to our rich fishing grounds and our considerable military projection**, and in addition the critical point the Chicken Lickens miss is that any hampering of trade will badly affect the core exporting nations with knock-on effects to unemployment and borrowing rates.

We would collect double the value of tariffs as we buy twice that we sell, and could plough this revenue into British enterprise.
If UK exports are harmed, this provides the UK with less revenue to buy German and French goods, who wins?

Banks will not re-locate into the EU en-mass, here are some of the reasons;

1) Moody’s yesterday said Banks will cope perfectly well
2) Banks can establish a brass plate on a desk in Dublin, simple
3) The City relies on each players own personal social network, face to face socialising over many years, and information harvested gives one the edge. You just cannot up-sticks to windy Frankfurt and talk to a lamp post. Furthermore the City is a hive of synergy with all the specialists in one place.

4) Equivalence will apply to the likes of Japan, and will obviously apply to British FS institutions, already aligned with the EU
5) Many institutions such as Aviva are already present in the EU, and will easily manage the transition and wont be leaving the dynamic, light touch profitable UK
6) Japan sells a similar value of services into the EU, with no trade deal at all!
7) FS firms would be very reluctant to leave ‘light-touch’, less intrusive UK Government


**
NEWSNIGHT – THE UK’S MILITARY ACE;
22 MINUTES IN – MILITARY ANGLE


http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07w4z4y/newsnight-14092016

Conrad

CLAPTON wrote: »

So you would envisage us negotiating a detailed position with the EU, the EU ratifying the deal with all 27 countries whilst they were fully aware that the UK parliament / new referendum might reject the deal.
It would seem to put our negotiating team in an extremely weak position.
Would you see both parliament voting and then a referendum?
If they disagreed who would have precedence.

If you haven't watched yesterdays Lib Dem conference on the Brexit debate (morning session), it's a right wheeze.


Most of them want a referendum on the terms. Can you imagine it, the terms would involve things such as migration, trade, rules, environment etc, thus there are so many reasons for people not be happy with the package and vote it down.


And then what, we go back for more debate, more negotiation with the EU and then back for another referendum?


This shows the profound naivety of Lib Dem types, thinking the world of business and EU Politics can just sit around whilst these sandal wearers leisurely debate the terms over and again.

cogito

Conrad wrote: »

SERVICES EXPORTS INTO THE EU, 2012, Bn Euros;
USA 346 bn – NO trade deal
Japan 137.6 bn – NO trade deal
UK 141.6 bn
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Trade_in_services,_2008_and_2013_(1)_(billion_EUR)_YB15.png

But both the USA and Japan had to agree free movement of people in order to trade with the EU, didn't they?

Oh, hang on a minute.......

Conrad

setmefree2 wrote: »

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-19/juncker-eyes-swiss-specific-immigration-deal-despite-brexit

No doubt gloomy Swiss Europhiles will throw toys out the pram and declare they are off to new shores in a hissy fit