If we vote for Brexit what happens

gadgetmind

CLAPTON wrote: »

why will uncertainty about trade arrangement affect trade

If you don't know what the future holds regards trade barriers, then the best way to derisk the decision is to make sure that it won't adversely affect you either way.

if their business is entirely within the UK then their costs will be unaffected by the value of the pound

So these widgets don't contain any electronic components, metals, plastics, or anything else that has to be imported and that's probably priced in dollars?

Aberdeenangarse

Tromking wrote: »

There will be widespread panic in the EU and another referendum within 6 months with a much better deal on the table.

Really? Can you tell us when?

setmefree2

gadgetmind wrote: »

You'd expect retail sales measured in sterling to increase given the drop in the value of sterling

No idea what you mean ????

However, since consumption is two thirds of GDP - retail is important - and the fact that retail is growing is good news.

setmefree2

gadgetmind wrote: »

Correct. It will take time for anything close to the full 10% to feed through,

A 10% fall against the dollar is good news. We have a trade surplus with the USA.

A 10% fall against the Dollar and Euro is good news as we have seen a massive boost to tourism and tourism is 10% of GDP.

A 10% fall against the Dollar and Euro may see firms sourcing goods from the UK - also good news.

The Yuan has fallen by 6% during Brexit - so some of the impact of sterling depreciation will be mitigated by this. So we won't see too much price rises on Chinese goods.

Note that price rises very much have already hit buying prices for businesses but customer-facing operations tend to hedge more.

Many business are hedged for a year.

CLAPTON

gadgetmind wrote: »

If you don't know what the future holds regards trade barriers, then the best way to derisk the decision is to make sure that it won't adversely affect you either way.

so you agree that the massive uncertainty about TTIP is damaging the EU (and UK) trade now and the best way to derisk this is for overseas countries to avoid the EU.

So these widgets don't contain any electronic components, metals, plastics, or anything else that has to be imported and that's probably priced in dollars?

clearly then their trade wouldn't be solely within the UK.

However the general points are

1. reduction in the value of the pound increases the price of imports and allows for a reduction in the price of exports.

2. given our need to import foods, fuels, electronics etc the value of these will be lower with a lower population and fewer immigrants.

3. a large trade deficit will inevitably lead to a lower value in the pound in the long run : in the short term the value may be held up by selling off all UK assets but eventually the pound must fall unless the deficit vanishes.

4. the lower value of the pound encourages people to substitue UK goods and services for foreign ones, so boosting jobs and UK businesses and potentially producing new businesses with export potential

so with tight controls on immigration we will look forward to a better future and a stronger pound (if that is important to you)

setmefree2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Ah...

So the BOE and the firms they survey are now just "surmising from various claptrap reports" eh?

In 2012 the surveys were all pointing to a recession that never happened.....

....just saying.....

setmefree2

Almost a third of London homes currently on the market have had their prices slashed since the “For Sale” boards went up, according to new figures.
The proportion of sellers who have reduced their asking prices has jumped 4.29 per cent to 30.66 per cent since April, in the latest sign of the seismic impact of the Brexit referendum on the market. Many buyers have pulled out of deals or demanded reductions in prices following the shock “Leave” vote on June 23, particularly in the more exclusive areas of central London.
The average cut across the capital has been 7.8 per cent, with the biggest reductions seen in London’s priciest borough of Kensington & Chelsea, where sellers have slashed 9.2 per cent, or almost £157,000, off their prices.
It was followed by Westminster where the average reduction is 8.4 per cent, or £137,999.
However, the borough with the most discounted homes on the market is Kingston-upon-Thames where 35.4 per cent have had their prices lowered, according to property website Zoopla.

Land prices also seem to have taken a big tumble in central London this year with year-on-year falls of 9.4 per cent, according to agent Knight Frank. Prices fell by 6.9 per cent in the three months to the end of June

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-house-prices-brexit-vote-takes-toll-as-prices-slashed-for-one-in-three-homes-a3316746.html

setmefree2

London's property prices are beginning to slide because the dampening effect of Brexit is beating the stimulus of low interest rates.
The UK's vote to leave the European Union helped slice just over £30,000 ($39,194) off the average London property price in July , according to a report from estate agent Haart cited in the Guardian.

The average price fell from £558,760 to £527,349 in London, the largest month-on-month decline recorded by the company. Nationally prices shrank by 0.9%.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-effect-on-uk-house-and-land-prices-2016-8

Crashy_Time

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-house-prices-brexit-vote-takes-toll-as-prices-slashed-for-one-in-three-homes-a3316746.html




http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-effect-on-uk-house-and-land-prices-2016-8

setmefree2

Brexit will hit German economy harder than rest of eurozone

http://www.politico.eu/article/study-brexit-will-hit-german-economy-harder-than-rest-of-eurozone/