If we vote for Brexit what happens

setmefree2

gadgetmind wrote: »

Correct. It will take time for anything close to the full 10% to feed through, but we're already seeing it for imported food and only the oil glut has protected us from that.

Note that price rises very much have already hit buying prices for businesses but customer-facing operations tend to hedge more.

Alan Clarke, an economist at Scotiabank Europe Plc, said it was “unusual” for companies to blame the Brexit referendum for cost increases they passed along so quickly. Typically there’s a six- to nine-month lag between big moves in exchange rates and shifts in consumer prices, he said.
‘Opportunistic Companies’

“I think you’ll have some opportunistic companies,” he said. “Whether people actually buy those products or they get discounted at sale time, we’ll have to wait and see.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-10/brexit-bites-back-as-peugeot-joins-dell-in-lifting-prices

setmefree2

Adecco, the world's biggest staffing group, has not been hit so far by Britons' vote in June to leave the European Union, Chief Executive Alain Dehaze told Reuters.
"We don't see any material impact of Brexit, either in the UK or in the neighbouring countries and the UK's trading partners," he said in a telephone interview after the company posted in-line results for the second quarter.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-adecco-group-idUKKCN10L0LY

mwpt

setmefree2 wrote: »

A 10% fall against the dollar is good news. We have a trade surplus with the USA.

A 10% fall against the Dollar and Euro is good news as we have seen a massive boost to tourism and tourism is 10% of GDP.

A 10% fall against the Dollar and Euro may see firms sourcing goods from the UK - also good news.

I can recommend many countries with very weak currencies. We should emulate them, because apparently a falling currency is great news.

gadgetmind

setmefree2 wrote: »

A 10% fall against the Dollar and Euro is good news as we have seen a massive boost to tourism.

Have we?

A 10% fall against the Dollar and Euro may see firms sourcing goods from the UK - also good news.

Yes, that may happen, but there are no signs of it so far.

The Yuan has fallen by 6% during Brexit - so some of the impact of sterling depreciation will be mitigated by this. So we won't see too much price rises on Chinese goods.

Most trade with China is priced in dollars.

Many business are hedged for a year.

Many larger ones are hedged but many SMEs can't afford it and either take the risk or hedge with short term contracts.

Out of interest, how many of those here taking a relaxed/positive attitude to Brexit actually do manufacture widgets in the UK?

CLAPTON

gadgetmind wrote: »

Have we?



Yes, that may happen, but there are no signs of it so far.



Most trade with China is priced in dollars.



Many larger ones are hedged but many SMEs can't afford it and either take the risk or hedge with short term contracts.

Out of interest, how many of those here taking a relaxed/positive attitude to Brexit actually do manufacture widgets in the UK?

its pretty standard economics that say that lower prices lead to more sales : why do you think that may not apply after brexit?


if trade with china is priced in dollars, then UK suppliers can either enjoy higher profits or reduce prices or does this simple bit of maths not apply after brexit?

gadgetmind

CLAPTON wrote: »

if trade with china is priced in dollars, then UK suppliers can either enjoy higher profits or reduce prices or does this simple bit of maths not apply after brexit?

You said "So we won't see too much price rises on Chinese goods" so you may like to check your maths.

BTW, another question. How much business (in either direction) to the Brexit fans already do *themselves* with China? How do you expect this to change in future and why?

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Just about to order a pizza, that is a feed up.


This is fed up (if you are a frustrated seller that is)


http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/698494/house-sellers-cut-asking-price-discount-sales-push-figures

True I just wondered why you lot are still going on nobody else is taking any notice of your ramblings, perhaps it's a self help group.

Thrugelmir

gadgetmind wrote: »

You said "So we won't see too much price rises on Chinese goods" so you may like to check your maths.

You are overlooking a very large elephant in the room.

China has abandoned a solemn pledge to keep its exchange rate stable and is carrying out a systematic devaluation of the yuan, sending a powerful deflationary impulse through a global economy already caught in a 1930s trap.

The country’s currency basket has been sliding at an annual pace of 12pc since the start of the year. This has picked up sharply since the Brexit vote, suggesting that the People’s Bank (PBOC) may be taking advantage of the distraction to push through a sharper devaluation.

“This makes a mockery of the PBOC’s suggestion that its policy is to keep the currency’s value stable,” said Mark Williams, chief China economist at Capital Economics. “Markets will not take PBOC policy statements at face value in the future.”

buglawton

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Really?

What is it about Britain that makes us almost uniquely incapable amongst developed economies to manage growth?

Do you have that little faith in our people?

Seems a real counsel of despair to me.... :cool:

I'm not expecting, I'm looking at the actual fact track record.
Right here right now look at the commuter rail experience, A&E and availability of housing.
Where's the plan that worked to fix any of these?
An extra 4% of economic overheating by staying in the single EU market ain't gonna help, and it's tied to allowing free migration. Same old, same old!

buglawton

Carper, aren't YOU fed up with specially coming and visiting this thread to make comments about how pointless it is?