If we vote for Brexit what happens

System

I believe house prices will not increase by 7-12% each year forever. It is a fact that my generation is sat on a mortgage time bomb built from high house prices and low interest rates. My generation has never experienced a rate hike and most would be crippled by a rate increase of 2%.

If house prices continue to increase at the current rate, interest rates may have to be raised. Higher interest rates should lower house price inflation and also protect the pound at the same time. It could also save jobs in certain industries.

However Judgement day will come - eventually.

ukcarper

mrlegend123 wrote: »

I believe house prices will not increase by 7-12% each year forever. It is a fact that my generation is sat on a mortgage time bomb built from high house prices and low interest rates. My generation has never experienced a rate hike and most would be crippled by a rate increase of 2%.

If house prices continue to increase at the current rate, interest rates may have to be raised. Higher interest rates should lower house price inflation and also protect the pound at the same time. It could also save jobs in certain industries.

However Judgement day will come - eventually.

I think that is one thing you can be sure off they haven't over the last 50 years so I don't think they will over the next.

System

It is very different now. You can not compare now to the 1960/70s.

gfplux

setmefree2 wrote: »

http://theconversation.com/should-the-uk-remain-in-the-eu-customs-union-after-brexit-63179

Thank you for that. It is an interesting read. So many rules and regs built up over a long time. When we Brexit I am sure that the law of unintended consequences will damage some products exportability (not really a word but I hope you know what I mean)
It also highlighted another complexity of the Irish border. Problems here have been dismissed by Brexiteers but there will be issues that we will have to get to grips with.

gfplux

Rinoa wrote: »

Juncker looks to be accepting a limit to Swiss immigration after Switzerland voted for quotas in a referendum.

Talks between EU and the Swiss were put on hold until after UK referendum but now Juncker appears to be allowing talks on limiting Swiss immigration to continue.

So, free movement not compulsory after all.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3712505/Swiss-EU-immigration-curb-talks-creep-despite-Brexit-vote.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

I am well aware of this ongoing situation but can't find any reference elsewhere to this "update" in the Daily Mail.
The discussions have been ongoing very slowly and I am not sure this is new news.
It will be very interesting to read the statement that will be issued on September 19th.

gfplux

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It would be doing a dis-service to the UK residents in the EU by not working to secure their rights in the EU while unilaterally guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens in the UK.

It appears both parties in the negotiations want this to happen, so it's more than likely going to. Crying about it isn't going to help you, them or make the PM or the EU guarantee the rights of these people unilaterally. It'll need to take place as part of the article 50 negotiations. Because up until that point - nothing is changing.

I don't want a big debate about this but I do want to offer my view. I want to point out that those of us who are British Citizens living in another EU country are not totally helpless. We obviously had some get up and go about us to have "searched for our fortune or retired" outside the UK.
In this Post Brexit world we are/will be taking steps to protect ourselves and our family's. This will take many forms with some family's already planning a move home. There are many ways to skin a cat. Even some European Countrys anxious to hold on to skilled UK workers are thinking how to help.
You may if you wish worry on our behalf but remember we do have that grit running through our veins that made some Brexiteers to vote to "make Britain great again"

This same situation is also playing out in the homes of EU nationals who have moved to the UK. Some will return home. If you have saleable skills it can be quite easy I to move to another EU Country. Brexiteers be careful what you wish for.

setmefree2

gfplux wrote: »

Thank you for that. It is an interesting read. So many rules and regs built up over a long time. When we Brexit I am sure that the law of unintended consequences will damage some products exportability (not really a word but I hope you know what I mean)
It also highlighted another complexity of the Irish border. Problems here have been dismissed by Brexiteers but there will be issues that we will have to get to grips with.

BBC Reality Check
What is a customs union?

Norway, on the other hand, is part of the European Economic Area (EEA), which gives it access to the single market, but is not in the EU's customs union.
In practice, this means that while most goods that originate in Norway can still be traded tariff-free to the rest of the European single market, products coming through Norway into the single market are subject to further checks.
There are some customs checks on the border between Norway and Sweden even though they are both part of the single market, to check for products originating outside Norway.
A good example of this was the attempts to smuggle garlic into Sweden.

Trade in services is arguably more important to the UK than trade in goods, as services make up almost 80% of the UK economy.
A customs union would have limited impact on trade in services.

Supporters of the customs union point out that if the UK were to leave it, there would be much more paperwork for UK businesses to fill out, and it could make the border issues involving Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic more complicated.
On the other hand, those wanting to leave the customs union say it would make it easier to negotiate trade deals with countries outside the union.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36906796

setmefree2

Six Brexit deals that Theresa May must strike

Britain’s exit from the EU will be far more complicated than most British politicians realise



http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/theresa-may-difficult-brexit-deals-fta-wto

ukcarper

mrlegend123 wrote: »

It is very different now. You can not compare now to the 1960/70s.

Why? .

setmefree2

Much has been made, too, of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, which measures hard data such as sales and orders and which this month fell to 49.1. Anything below 50 indicates a contracting economy. But the fall was less than many had predicted, and the index has falsely suggested slowdowns in the past. It spent most of 2012 below 50, yet a recession did not follow. Nor is the index wholly negative — it suggests a sharp rise in exports over the past month, which must be the early fruits of the drop in sterling.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/business-confidence-returning-brexit-britain/