If we vote for Brexit what happens

cells

chaostheory wrote: »

Really?

Still can't see it?

House prices correlate much more to regional GDP than they do to migration

We have had the biggest boom in migration ever over the last 10 years and house prices have responded to this wave of migration as follows

-18% in NI
-2% in the North East
+6% in Wales
+7% in the North West
+9% in the Y&H
+13% in the West Midlands
+17% in the East Midlands
+19% in Scotland
+24% in the South West

All those regions grew in price less than the growth in nominal wages of 24.25% over the decade so all of those areas are cheaper v wages plus a mortgage now costs 2% instead of 5%

+43% in the East of England
+47% in the SE

The South East and East cost about 17% more vs wages but on the other hand you will be paying 2% interest rater than 5% which will more than make up the difference


So it does not look like positive population growth has had much of a factor in pushing prices up. Those regions are home to about 87% of the country and housing stock.

Of course London is a different story but its only ~13% of the population and the reason London boomed is its regional London GVA growth has boomed

cells

enthusiasticsaver wrote: »

The correlation between the increase in house prices and the increase in migration (from both EU and outside) is due to the performance of the economy on which both of these factors rely. When we have a good economy with higher gdp and employment then house prices tend to rise due to confidence and higher wage growth and migrants also come to the UK for jobs. In a recession then house prices fall and migrants don't come for the simple reason there are no jobs so it is tenuous at best to suggest the reason for high house prices is high migration.

The Migration Advisory Service and LSE did a report on this prior to Brexit and concluded that migration played a limited part in rising house prices and most Tier 2 immigrants were in private rented sector. https://fullfact.org/economy/are-immigrants-pushing-house-prices/

Averages distort the picture.

The following regions are all cheaper v wages. That is to say wages have gone up more than prices

-18% in NI
-2% in the North East
+6% in Wales
+7% in the North West
+9% in the Y&H
+13% in the West Midlands
+17% in the East Midlands
+19% in Scotland
+24% in the South West

The following regions are up very slightly ~17% vs wages. But anyone buying today at the ~17% higher v wages prices will be paying substantially lower interest on their 2% instead of 5% mortgage so they too are still better off


It is only London which is the outlier but since the government and the media is based in London and not just average London but inner London which has boomed even more than outter London people think its a national problem when its only a london 'problem' and even this 'problem' is one of a successful city that grew more than the rUK over the last two decades

posh*spice

mayonnaise wrote: »

UK economy contracts at steepest pace since early-2009[/B

Seems like a luxury problem compared to the terrorist attacks in France and now in Germany/ Munich.

Yes I'll take that. The rest of you can dream of cheap ice cream.

mystic_trev

posh*spice wrote: »

The rest of you can dream of cheap ice cream.

http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/deals/deals-hunter/2016/07/20/heatwave-where-to-pick-up-a-cool-bargain-on-ice-cream/

System

posh*spice wrote: »

Seems like a luxury problem compared to the terrorist attacks in France and now in Germany/ Munich.

How is that related?

buglawton

cells wrote: »

why do these rules only apply to England?

Why do the French builders or the Irish or the Spanish or the German builders build a sufficient amount?

It's called "joined up government policy" that results in banks, local authorities, companies, apprenticeship schemes, all working together. Might only exist in countries with PR and genuinely regionally devolved power.
Not invented in UK anyways.

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

House prices correlate much more to regional GDP than they do to migration

We have had the biggest boom in migration ever over the last 10 years and house prices have responded to this wave of migration as follows

-18% in NI
-2% in the North East
+6% in Wales
+7% in the North West
+9% in the Y&H
+13% in the West Midlands
+17% in the East Midlands
+19% in Scotland
+24% in the South West

All those regions grew in price less than the growth in nominal wages of 24.25% over the decade so all of those areas are cheaper v wages plus a mortgage now costs 2% instead of 5%

+43% in the East of England
+47% in the SE

The South East and East cost about 17% more vs wages but on the other hand you will be paying 2% interest rater than 5% which will more than make up the difference


So it does not look like positive population growth has had much of a factor in pushing prices up. Those regions are home to about 87% of the country and housing stock.

Of course London is a different story but its only ~13% of the population and the reason London boomed is its regional London GVA growth has boomed

the population of London is about 45% foreign born
this suggests that the difficulty of UK young people being able to live in a family sized house is related to the level of immigration.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

chaostheory wrote: »

Still can't see it?

Still can't see it?



The solution to a shortage of housing is to build more houses.

Simples.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Still can't see it?



The solution to a shortage of housing is to build more houses.

Simples.

conveniently there is plenty of space in scotland to build more houses
can't understand why this doesn't solve the 'simples' issue

Samsonite1

CLAPTON wrote: »

the population of London is about 45% foreign born
this suggests that the difficulty of UK young people being able to live in a family sized house is related to the level of immigration.

Potentially, but this includes pre-war immigrants. Historically we are probably all immigrants, but anyway - in terms of EU only 13% of the 45% are from Europe (including non-EU members) and as it is including immigrants from a long time ago, it is certainly not a problem caused by the EU specifically.

More importantly though is that 70% of houses in London are bought by investors, not immigrants - they are not the same thing as foreign investors often do not live in the UK.