If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

Rinoa wrote: »

He he.

So we may have a chance of free trade with NAFTA, (bigger than what the EU will be without the UK) not pay an £8Bn annual membership fee, not be compelled to have free movement, not have to abide by ridiculous EU legislation and have all our fishing rights back.

Or we can plead to have trade with the EU on their terms.

Hmmm. It's a tough choice.

I do not get the doom heads gloomy outlook. It's just completely obvious we are going to thrive like never before

Conrad

gfplux wrote: »

My German branded car was made in the USA

Yes as many VWs are made in Brazil. We can import them if the EU adds tariffs to those made in lower Saxony

cells

Rinoa wrote: »

He he.

So we may have a chance of free trade with NAFTA, (bigger than what the EU will be without the UK) not pay an £8Bn annual membership fee, not be compelled to have free movement, not have to abide by ridiculous EU legislation and have all our fishing rights back.

Or we can plead to have trade with the EU on their terms.

Hmmm. It's a tough choice.

the Americans are a good deal more efficient than the french in almost any metric you wish to consider they also tend to have lower taxes and a big advantage in a lot of sectors (like much lower energy costs and a larger more competitive internal market). Personally I feel confident competing with the Italians and Spanish etc but am less confident we would come out on top against the Americans. The distance is another factor and London is/was the EUs finance centre it wont be the USAs. There are also other things that make it different eg the eletricity grid where the EU is 230 volts 50HZ the Americans are 120 volts 60HZ so if there are British businesses making electrical bits for the EU its not going to be a straight forward swap to making them for Americans.

Plus the EU might get TTIP so we would have had that access anyway so its still a loss in that sense

gfplux

Conrad wrote: »

General is a super clever chap, but do not confuse such wisdom with crystal ball gazing. Please read the book Futurebabble. It shows how almost all of the big ticket predictions ended up wrong and how we're addicted to the talking heads giving us more predictio s despite the woeful record

Do you not trust us British to overcome and prosper? Why on earth is this?

Generali is totally wrong about investment, it will soon take off. We are the new nimble dynamic kid on the block. investment has been leaching out of the lumbering EU for years, and the future there is not looking good

The US looks very risk. The U.K. is a safe haven, and will be even safer now

What is it about small every day decisions don't you understand.

Conrad

cells wrote: »

the Americans are a good deal more efficient than the french in almost any metric you wish to consider they also tend to have lower taxes and a big advantage in a lot of sectors (like much lower energy costs and a larger more competitive internal market). Personally I feel confident competing with the Italians and Spanish etc but am less confident we would come out on top against the Americans. The distance is another factor and London is/was the EUs finance centre it wont be the USAs. There are also other things that make it different eg the eletricity grid where the EU is 230 volts 50HZ the Americans are 120 volts 60HZ so if there are British businesses making electrical bits for the EU its not going to be a straight forward swap to making them for Americans.

Plus the EU might get TTIP so we would have had that access anyway so its still a loss in that sense

We are Americas biggest investment partner and they ours, all without a trade deal.

We will make a very potent trade deal with the US very soon,mane both sides will benefit. This power imbalance argument is not backed by evidence

Conrad

cells wrote: »

the Americans are a good deal more efficient than the french in almost any metric you wish to consider they also tend to have lower taxes and a big advantage in a lot of sectors (like much lower energy costs and a larger more competitive internal market). Personally I feel confident competing with the Italians and Spanish etc but am less confident we would come out on top against the Americans. The distance is another factor and London is/was the EUs finance centre it wont be the USAs. There are also other things that make it different eg the eletricity grid where the EU is 230 volts 50HZ the Americans are 120 volts 60HZ so if there are British businesses making electrical bits for the EU its not going to be a straight forward swap to making them for Americans.

Plus the EU might get TTIP so we would have had that access anyway so its still a loss in that sense

We are Americas biggest investment partner and they ours, all without a trade deal.

We will make a very potent trade deal with the US very soon, and both sides will benefit. This power imbalance argument is not backed by evidence

cells

Conrad wrote: »

Whilst I'd like to see an EU trade deal and think we will almost certainly get an acceptable outcome, it is worth baring in mind that the three largest exporters into the EU have no trade deal at all.

I see VW picked up an $11 bn fine yesterday. Even more reason those Germans need trade with the U.K. not to be hampered. We're Germany's third biggest export market.

My guess is that the outcome is going to be 5 years of what we have today ie limbo (which even if it costs 1% of GDP is going to be a £90Billion loss over the 5 years!) and then a deal with the EU whereby the UK gets all the market access for the full membership fee (ie no rebate). Effectively we trade not having to take ~180,000 young working EU members each year in return for paying ~£5 billion more and having no say whatsoever in the EU while having to follow all the rules bar free movement.

That seems a rotten deal compared to what we had a week ago

Conrad

cells wrote: »

My guess is that the outcome is going to be 5 years of what we have today ie limbo (which even if it costs 1% of GDP is going to be a £90Billion loss over the 5 years!) and then a deal with the EU whereby the UK gets all the market access for the full membership fee (ie no rebate). Effectively we trade not having to take ~180,000 young working EU members each year in return for paying ~£5 billion more and having no say whatsoever in the EU while having to follow all the rules bar free movement.

That seems a rotten deal compared to what we had a week ago

Total codswallop with respect cells. You're a smart chap, get your mojo back in gear!

The EU is massively precarious, the last thing it or its lenders want is ANY hampering of trade. We're already fully alighned, a deal will come very fast and not the one you suggest, we're not muppets

As for having no say so, so what, loads of countries trade without having a say so on one another's rules, I couldn't care less

cells

Conrad wrote: »

We are Americas biggest investment partner and they ours, all without a trade deal.

in what way do you think that is?

Do you feel the Americans have come over an invested in building £500 billion worth of factories and ports and railways or do you think Americans and american companies have purchased £500 billion worth of stocks shares and bonds and vice versa with the uk people and companies purchasing a similar amount of USA stocks shares and bonds.

We will make a very potent trade deal with the US very soon, and both sides will benefit. This power imbalance argument is not backed by evidence

maybe, maybe not
the TTIP articles had UK GDP going up by £10B so that might be a good indicator of the UK/USA FTA. £10B gained in USA trade is welcome but not if its at a loss of the EU trade

cells

Conrad wrote: »

Total codswallop with respect cells. You're a smart chap, get your mojo back in gear!

The EU is massively precarious, the last thing it or its lenders want is ANY hampering of trade. We're already fully alighned, a deal will come very fast and not the one you suggest, we're not muppets

As for having no say so, so what, loads of countries trade without having a say so on one another's rules, I couldn't care less

I hope you are right

Personally I dont think the EU is going to allow full market access with no movement of people and no contribution to the budget.

I think its going to be a lot slower than you imagine with maybe 5-10 years of what we currently have today limbo.

The EU will also want its own financial centre. That was london until a week ago. You can argue that the germans will want to keep selling us cars but If I were German I would rather have a global financial centre in the EU (possibly paris). The additional jobs and money will create internal wealth and they can sell more expensive German cars to the now big financial centre in Paris rather than London.