If we vote for Brexit what happens

cashbackproblems

I think its inevitable that prices will come down due to the uncertainty of the markets, jobs e.g. Vodafone today announced plans to move abroad, Virgin/Ryanair just to name a few are scaling down. We still don't know whether we will get free trade with the EU and the Bank of England are printing money like anything it is guaranteed to lead to inflation and thus interest rate rises. The UK and households are in such large debt that even a 0.5% increase is said to destroy a lot of household finances, and the BoE know this.

How much they come down no one knows at this stage, its barely been a week since we left and the effects will take months to feed into market sentiment, a big factor will be how competitive our city of London can remain as this effects the rest of the UK. "experts" seem to think there will be a 20% correction, it could be more could be less, but I think we will see large falls as we have already since the stamp duty rise, this will take the stuffing out the market

smile88egc

It seems the economic consequences of leaving the EU are going to be defered, perhaps until a new PM starts to negotiate out exit with Brussels.

I have a feeling this is only the beginning. We may not see house prices drop further until unemployment starts to rise or wages stall as investors actually do pull out of the UK in favour of more stable markets.

buglawton

WTO terms would be an obvious UK get-out. Held to ransom however is the Financial Services passport. I think the UK should call EU's bluff and be very willing to walk away from a bad trade deal. Once they see we're serious the offer from them will magically improve.

ciderboy2009

cashbackproblems wrote: »

Vodafone today announced plans to move abroad

It's misquotes like this which are causing problems though.

Vodaphone actually stated that it was too early to draw any firm conclusions regarding the long-term location for their headquarters.

As for Ryanair - O'Leary has stated that said the airline's overall growth targets remained unchanged.

brit1234

smile88egc wrote: »

We may not see house prices drop further until unemployment starts to rise or wages stall as investors actually do pull out of the UK in favour of more stable markets.

Prices have already been falling, in many areas for nearly a year (central London). This was all before brexit, we had a bigger housing bubble than 2007 and the stamp duty changes (both of them) and buy to let changes were having an effect in lowering prices. I think brexit will accelerate this as sentiment continues to turn negative. It was positive sentiment that was blinding people to the housing bubble before this,

HouseBuyer77

We may not see house prices drop further until unemployment starts to rise or wages stall as investors actually do pull out of the UK in favour of more stable markets.

Markets all over the world are unstable right now. Indeed the FTSE is showing a strong rally today from the brexit drops where other indices are not (this could easily go the other way tomorrow of course!).

It's too early to know the effect of brexit on house prices. Certainly you can point to people to pulling out of sales, dropping asking prices etc but it's only been a few days since the leave vote. Uncertainty is scaring people (hence the FTSE drops). Perhaps in a month it'll be business as usual in property sales, perhaps it won't.

Until we have some decent data on actual sold prices following the brexit vote you can't say for sure what's happening. The land registry publishes these with a month or so lag. Banks also have actual sold price data from mortgages. Perhaps one or more of them will do a special brexit report.

Though remember house prices aren't stocks, there is no second by second (or indeed day be day) index telling you what's going on. Time is required to get an idea.

sheff6107

cashbackproblems wrote: »

the Bank of England are printing money like anything it is guaranteed to lead to inflation and thus interest rate rises.

It's actually the reverse - the liquidity is to prevent deflation rather than a scramble to prevent inflation.

cells

Rinoa wrote: »

Now isn't the time to negotiate with the EU. For obvious reasons we won't get a good deal anytime soon.

Trading on WTO terms will cost our exporters, (according to the head of the WTO) £5.6Bn. We save £7Bn on our EU contribution and of course we will receive around £8Bn from the EU on exports to the UK.

So we're circa £10Bn up on that deal which we could easily use to compensate exporters with tax breaks, research grants, generous export finance etc. And we don't have to make a single concession to the EU.

Of course, if the pound stays at current levels, our exports to the EU will be cheaper after Brexit than they were this time last week. Our exports would be booming.

factories and businesses naturally decay and go bankrupt and others spring up all the time. The problem is if you are a business that sells a lot into the EU when it comes to renew your investments do you renew them in the UK and pay a fee to sell into 27 other countries or do you renew your investment into say France/Germany/Poland/Etc and pay a fee to sell into 1 UK?

Even pure British businesses that were started and run in the UK will have to make a decision on investments. Put it in the UK and pay taxes to sell to 27 other nations or put it in one of those 27 and pay to sell into the 1 uk


Also your claimed £8 billion in taxes on europe exporting to the UK is not fiscal neural. That £8 billion will result in more or less £8 billion increase in the cost of those products plus the currency move. So if the UK imports £100 billion of European manufactured cars the Europeans are going to still charge us £100B for them and hand the government over a £10B tarriff. They are going to charge us £110B plus more for the currency movements. So the £10B is akin to the government putting up taxes it isnt a free lunch

cells

Rinoa wrote: »

Now isn't the time to negotiate with the EU. For obvious reasons we won't get a good deal anytime soon.

Trading on WTO terms will cost our exporters, (according to the head of the WTO) £5.6Bn. We save £7Bn on our EU contribution and of course we will receive around £8Bn from the EU on exports to the UK.

So we're circa £10Bn up on that deal which we could easily use to compensate exporters with tax breaks, research grants, generous export finance etc. And we don't have to make a single concession to the EU.

Of course, if the pound stays at current levels, our exports to the EU will be cheaper after Brexit than they were this time last week. Our exports would be booming.

the tax system cant favor one type of company over another nor can we subsidies our exports the other WTO countries wont have it

If this brexit is happening The UK needs some state intervention to reduce imports where possible

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

Also your claimed £8 billion in taxes on europe exporting to the UK is not fiscal neural. That £8 billion will result in more or less £8 billion increase in the cost of those products plus the currency move. So if the UK imports £100 billion of European manufactured cars the Europeans are going to still charge us £100B for them and hand the government over a £10B tarriff. They are going to charge us £110B plus more for the currency movements. So the £10B is akin to the government putting up taxes it isnt a free lunch

of course previously you have given very detail and lucid arguments why this doesn't actually happen

firstly there is no requirement for the UK to impose any tariff barriers
however if the pound falls (which is probable due to our huge trade deficit, then overall imported products will become more expensive

this will mean that home produced products will be substituted for imports and our exports will be cheaper overseas or the EU exporters will need to reduce prices to maintain sales.