If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

buglawton wrote: »

Eurocratic meddling and temptation to tax the milch cow to death will put paid to any such centre being a competitive success.

Several Eurozone nations have potential referendums on the horizon, so those making business decisions may conclude the UK as a safer option given our referendum is done and dusted (unless Hesseltine gets his way)

Britains fundamentals remain strong and investment will flow in as we are a safe beacon in a world of risk

Conrad

The US Dollar is looking ever more risky what with thier vast debt and very tumultuous political times ahead, with potentialy a very protectionist Govt

Eurozone is the last place any smart investor would be considering just now, there are so many huge risks

The pound is back to where is was in Febuary. Was the sky falling in then?

mwpt

Conrad wrote: »

I see GILT prices are rock solid, this tells you what markets really think

In a choppy world we remain a damned safe bet, people need to stop being hysterical and calm down

Conrad, bond prices around most of the world stopped reflecting fundamentals long ago when the central banks became the buyer of last resort. Surely you are aware of this?

Or do you think Spain is a less risky prospect than Australia, or New Zealand and only slightly more risky than the UK or US? And Italy is apparently a safer investment than the UK and the US. France, is a lot safer than the UK, US, New Zealand, Australia, Canada. And Japan is sooooo safe, you have to pay them money to lend them money :doh:

Generali

buglawton wrote: »

It fell hard due to the overconfident currency speculation that artificially boosted the £ in the prior weeks. Serves the speculators right, affects the public little, except for making the UK sharply more competitive at the right moment.

An overconfidence of an extent that has never been seen before.

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

However, I would be interested in your take on the longer term significance of the fall.

My take is reasonably simple. Although the absolute exchange rate affects prices and business viability that will work it's way out in the wash.

What is more significant is the entirely self inflicted additional volatility. We all know, like the English weather, exchange rates are variable but volatility will delay, postpone or cancel investment and additional volatility will mean more delays and/ or cancellations.

Interestingly you sold up your investments so you're not entirely unaware of this and the butter wouldn't melt act does look a tad forced.

kabayiri

Back to the question of what happens.

I think there will be a lot of tactical politics in the next few months.

You'd expect some gesture politics from the EU and Leave to defend their positions, but detail negotiations will then move towards pragmatics.

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

Conrad, bond prices around most of the world stopped reflecting fundamentals long ago when the central banks became the buyer of last resort. Surely you are aware of this?

Or do you think Spain is a less risky prospect than Australia, or New Zealand and only slightly more risky than the UK or US? And Italy is apparently a safer investment than the UK and the US. France, is a lot safer than the UK, US, New Zealand, Australia, Canada. And Japan is sooooo safe, you have to pay them money to lend them money :doh:

difficult question, but clearly NZ and Aus are isolated countries without the strength and solidarity of the EU around them

Rinoa

Has Osborne delivered his emergency budget yet?

mwpt

Rinoa wrote: »

Has Osborne delivered his emergency budget yet?

I think only stupid people expected him to issue an emergency budget a couple of days after a result. If you really want more information, read on. But if you are just trying to score stupid points, don't bother and carry on posting.

There will have be action to deal with the impact on the public finances, but of course it is perfectly sensible to wait until we have a new prime minister. Of course the economy is going to adjust, and there will be an impact on the public finances, that’s what I said before the referendum, I don’t resile from anything I said before the referendum. And I said there would have to be action, actually as it happens in the autumn, to address that. I think it is perfectly sensible to wait until we have new prime minister before we address that.

By the way, I actually haven't seen the text of what George Osborne said about this emergency budget. Did he say it was guaranteed or just a possibility if there was a downturn?

Could you help me find the full text so we can read it in context?

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

My take is reasonably simple. Although the absolute exchange rate affects prices and business viability that will work it's way out in the wash.

What is more significant is the entirely self inflicted additional volatility. We all know, like the English weather, exchange rates are variable but volatility will delay, postpone or cancel investment and additional volatility will mean more delays and/ or cancellations.

Interestingly you sold up your investments so you're not entirely unaware of this and the butter wouldn't melt act does look a tad forced.

To the extend that 'democracy' is self inflicted I guess we have some level of agreement.
The specific instance of the sharpest fall ever, is precisely zero in the medium / long term. If it had been less or more your view would have been unchanged.