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If we vote for Brexit what happens

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Comments

  • CLAPTON
    CLAPTON Posts: 41,865 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Generali wrote: »
    Find an occasion when a major currency has dropped 10% in two days. This simply does not happen. The pound didn't even fall this fast on Black/White Wednesday and on that occasion it was being propped up at unrealistic levels with hundreds of millions of FX reserves.

    I realise that you have a position that you are seeking to justify but that shouldn't extend to pretending that what is going on is normal as it isn't.

    The next thing to consider is how you're going to replace c. £50 billion of FDI each year. That's the best part of 3% of GDP that you can wave goodbye to, at the very least until you can sort out what happens next.

    like the English weather, there is always a record to be noted.
  • setmefree2
    setmefree2 Posts: 9,072 Forumite
    Mortgage-free Glee!
    Rinoa wrote: »
    A very quick election would help right now. Nothing can happen until it's over, which just adds to the uncertainty.

    Liam Fox seems to be "in the know" - he reckons November for leadership election - the trigger will be pulled 1st Jan so that full out is 1st January 2019.
  • buglawton
    buglawton Posts: 9,246 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper
    Kohoutek wrote: »
    They are making their intentions pretty clear:

    City of London could be cut off from Europe, says ECB official



    [URL="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-finance-idUSKCN0ZC152
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-finance-idUSKCN0ZC152"]EU plans moving bank regulator from London as euro zone eyes City business
    [/URL]
    With the current and prospective state of the other EU economies, not having access to their capital markets might be a good thing.
  • buglawton
    buglawton Posts: 9,246 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper
    cells wrote: »
    This is the thing no one knows what the details of the out vote are going to be

    We may find in a few months time that out looks a lot like in with the exception of the UK making its own laws and regulations.

    I still feel the EU will covet its own global financial centre. An economy of size and scale of about $15 trillion a year without its own global financial centre? Some people might like the siubd if the UK diminished role in finance but it really does pay a lot of the countries bills both internal and external.
    Eurocratic meddling and temptation to tax the milch cow to death will put paid to any such centre being a competitive success.
  • wotsthat
    wotsthat Posts: 11,325 Forumite
    CLAPTON wrote: »
    like the English weather, there is always a record to be noted.

    Another one with a position to justify.

    Keep playing it down.
  • buglawton
    buglawton Posts: 9,246 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper
    Generali wrote: »
    Find an occasion when a major currency has dropped 10% in two days. This simply does not happen. The pound didn't even fall this fast on Black/White Wednesday and on that occasion it was being propped up at unrealistic levels with hundreds of millions of FX reserves.

    I realise that you have a position that you are seeking to justify but that shouldn't extend to pretending that what is going on is normal as it isn't.

    The next thing to consider is how you're going to replace c. £50 billion of FDI each year. That's the best part of 3% of GDP that you can wave goodbye to, at the very least until you can sort out what happens next.
    It fell hard due to the overconfident currency speculation that artificially boosted the £ in the prior weeks. Serves the speculators right, affects the public little, except for making the UK sharply more competitive at the right moment.
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    buglawton wrote: »
    It fell hard due to the overconfident currency speculation that artificially boosted the £ in the prior weeks. Serves the speculators right, affects the public little, except for making the UK sharply more competitive at the right moment.

    Apart from the importers of course, it makes imports more expensive.

    As the UK is a net importer that isn't a trivial matter.
  • CLAPTON
    CLAPTON Posts: 41,865 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    wotsthat wrote: »
    Another one with a position to justify.

    Keep playing it down.

    as you know the pound has previously been much lower.
    why was the rate of all over such a short time of greater significance that the absolute value ?
    if it rises by the fastest rise ever sometime shortly will you be saying the crisis is over?
    what do the text books tell us?

    Although I'm mainly out of the stock market, I note the value of my residual shares are higher now than in January:

    Wide fluctuating over short periods, tell us very little of value except except that the masters of the universe got it all badly wrong.

    However, I would be interested in your take on the longer term significance of the fall.
  • buglawton
    buglawton Posts: 9,246 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper
    Generali wrote: »
    Apart from the importers of course, it makes imports more expensive.

    As the UK is a net importer that isn't a trivial matter.
    The BOE's been scratching it's head trying to get UK inflation to rise to the target of 2% for ages, looks like the answer's been provided on a plate. And remember, a huge part of ones monthly expenditure goes on services, UK labour cost, UK mortgage/rent, and UK profit margins. The £ is really nothing to worry about... yet.
  • CLAPTON
    CLAPTON Posts: 41,865 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Generali wrote: »
    Apart from the importers of course, it makes imports more expensive.

    As the UK is a net importer that isn't a trivial matter.

    What is you take on the benefits/drawbacks of a fllling pound.

    I have frequently mentioned my concerns about our balance of trade deficit and the possible impact of a falling pound. In general on here it was deemed to be unimportant but then I was suggesting that was a negative of being part of the EU.
    Time change rather quickly. Indeed maybe an unprecedented rate of change in sentiment?
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