If we vote for Brexit what happens

Generali

antrobus wrote: »

Nobody knows what the result of any Brexit negotitations would be. And since we would be the one that was wanting to change things, there's a good chance that we will be the one paying the price.

Just as with Scotland leaving the UK there is zero chance that the EU will let the UK walk away with a sweetheart deal.

Shakethedisease

Hmmmm... I'm not sure any sweetheart deal will be enough myself.

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 28 mins28 minutes ago EU referendum poll: Remain: 38% (-2) Leave: 42% (-) (via Survation / 15 - 16 Jan)
91 retweets 44 likes

zagubov

antrobus wrote: »

Norway certainly does not get a free ride, although I certainly think it pays less per capita. (At the moment at least; the EC wants Norway to pay more.) The Norwegian Minister for EU Affairs thinks that Norway pays or less what it would be paying if it was an EU member.

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/global-europe/vidar-helgesen-our-eea-contribution-costs-almost-much-eu-membership-314369

I believe we looked at this before and, despite being 48% richer than us, they pay 10% less and as a proportion, 40% less as contributions than we do.

Generali

zagubov wrote: »

I believe we looked at this before and, despite being 48% richer than us, they pay 10% less and as a proportion, 40% less as contributions than we do.

It doesn't sound like a great deal to me. Paying 90% of the price not to be a member of the club.

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Hmmmm... I'm not sure any sweetheart deal will be enough myself.

22% don't know.

It's probably worth noting that nobody even knows what they are going to be voting on yet and that according to the Indie the majority seem to support the direction that Mr Cameron is taking the UK in negotiations with the EU:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/ios-poll-camerons-eu-campaign-boosted-as-his-negotiation-wins-84-support-a6816736.html

i.e. people should be able to work across the EU but should expect to support themselves in doing so rather than resorting to welfare at their destination country. Let's face it, this EU stuff is mostly a vote on immigration.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

22% don't know.

It's probably worth noting that nobody even knows what they are going to be voting on yet and that according to the Indie the majority seem to support the direction that Mr Cameron is taking the UK in negotiations with the EU:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/ios-poll-camerons-eu-campaign-boosted-as-his-negotiation-wins-84-support-a6816736.html

i.e. people should be able to work across the EU but should expect to support themselves in doing so rather than resorting to welfare at their destination country. Let's face it, this EU stuff is mostly a vote on immigration.

Is still bad news for the IN camp at this early stage in the game, that polls are even hinting at these sorts of figures for leaving. I doubt that claiming welfare is even a factor in a lot of people's reasoning. Its immigration figures as a whole imo. So I agree with that.

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Is still bad news for the IN camp at this early stage in the game, that polls are even hinting at these sorts of figures for leaving. I doubt that claiming welfare is even a factor in a lot of people's reasoning. Its immigration figures as a whole imo. So I agree with that.

The figures of the poll for immigrants claiming welfare are pretty compelling:



The message I would take from these numbers is tepid support for immigration and basically no support for giving welfare to recent migrants.

The secret politics of the UK is basically that people are massively right wing on crime & punishment, welfare and immigration. People are massively left wing on nationalisation and the economy more generally.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

The figures of the poll for immigrants claiming welfare are pretty compelling:



The message I would take from these numbers is tepid support for immigration and basically no support for giving welfare to recent migrants.

The secret politics of the UK is basically that people are massively right wing on crime & punishment, welfare and immigration. People are massively left wing on nationalisation and the economy more generally.

I guess they may well be. But a four million UKIP votes just last May, can't just be discounted. And certainly not just re welfare claims. Half the Conservative cabinet feel the same way and am guessing a fair proportion of Conservative voters also.

It's looking tight to me. What the media will do and say may well swing it. Cameron saying he's not going for a third term was possibly a mistake. Because now people are discounting him as a factor and looking to Boris and George instead. Boris leading the Leave side, may swing a lot of the media to the leave side. And am afraid, the media do still have quite a bit of influence in terms of messages to the general public.

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I guess they may well be. But a four million UKIP votes just last May, can't just be discounted. And certainly not just re welfare claims. Half the Conservative cabinet feel the same way and am guessing a fair proportion of Conservative voters also.

It's looking tight to me. What the media will do and say may well swing it. Cameron saying he's not going for a third term was possibly a mistake. Because now people are discounting him as a factor and looking to Boris and George instead. Boris leading the Leave side, may swing a lot of the media to the leave side. And am afraid, the media do still have quite a bit of influence in terms of messages to the general public.

The poll shows why UKIP gained so much support: British people don't want to give welfare to immigrants.

HornetSaver

Generali wrote: »

The poll shows why UKIP gained so much support: British people don't want to give welfare to immigrants.

That's probably why they've gotten so much from Labour in recent times.

But whilst mentioning in passing before swiftly moving on from the "fruitcakes, loonies..." characterizations (undoubtedly true in some cases, but the same can be said for all parties in differing numbers and ways), the biggest driver behind any independence movement, or party, is desire for control. And the biggest obstacle is invariably what those in the middle of the opinion scale are willing to give up in the process.

The EU is a somewhat special case, in that its reason for existing is to create rules for the benefit of its most integrated members, but the principles of stay vs leave remain the same. We're not driving those rules, but with the single - large - exception of correcting out the housing market by effectively pausing immigration, ripping up those rules will unquestionably hurt Britain for a period of time, the only questions being how long and what's the endgame.

The difference between the Scottish referendum and this one is that rEU could not afford to allow the UK to be seen as benefitting from the decision even after a leave vote - it would have an active interest in dissuading others from following suit. Whereas despite Westminster and Holyrood having wildly differing views about the case for the union, that is a pre-independence position. If Scotland actually left, they would not have a subsequent interest in policies which might harm the other (the union would never be reinstated, besides which, high proportions of each country's trade is with the other).

I've gone a bit off topic there. One final on-topic comment though. The irony of the EU referendum is that it would have the biggest effects on house prices and lower paid employment, yet the two biggest established blocks of Out voters are 45+ homeowners, and former voters for whites-only parties (who are typically lower paid).