If we vote for Brexit what happens

Filo25

mrginge wrote: »

And you are happy to remain linked to a political organisation that ignores the democratic wishes of its members?

I think Bob's concern is more that some of the members might be the problem, given the eventual deal would need to be agreed by all of them.

TrickyTree83

mrginge wrote: »

And you are happy to remain linked to a political organisation that ignores the democratic wishes of its members?

Anyone seen this?

Link

gfplux

Conrad wrote: »

It has quite a good deal, but we are a far more important local customer so will get a better deal.


French, Spanish and Italian youth unemployment are at frightening levels, it is absolutely bonkers to think they would wish to create trade waves with their biggest consumer market, the UK.


The EU is on an economic knife edge, as soon as we vote leave the EU will want to reach an amicable settlement so as not to add to it's economic uncertainty. Putting up its prices via tariffs would add to it's woes and be totally self destructive.


This debate all comes down to your confidence in Britain to cut her way in the world


The economic case for leaving is vast.


IN ANY EVENT THE SM 'BONUS' IS ONLY 3/4% OF TRADE DONE WITH EU, AND NOT NEEDED AT ALL - JAPAN, KOREA AND MANY OTHER PROSEPRING NATIONS SELL TO EU WITHOUT SM MEMBERSHIP. We will get a decent trade deal anyway and be free to deal with the world as we see fit - a massive boon

Your understanding of French, Spanish and Italian Politiciens is interesting. Perhaps you could tell us more.

gfplux

Conrad wrote: »

It does.


EU is on a economic tight wire. Italian Banks have lost 50% of share value this year, some have gone bust, 19% of their loans in default, and this is JUST ONE of the EU's economic time bombs.


Thus the EU absolutely has a critical need to reduce and waves caused by Brexit and will want trade to be unmolested.


You've seen French workers out on strike last week - imagine what would happen if the EU tries to put up French wine and car prices, which would mean we would by wine from Australia and Chile and cars from Japan, UK and Korea.............


VW's are made in Brazil, if the Saxony made versions go up in price.............

On the other side of the scales will be the EU's need to show other potential leavers that there would be a chill wind blowing at Britain.
I hope you can except that as a possibility.

gfplux

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Professor Patrick Minford

That guy for me is a deal-breaker. He's been correct about a number of things and has generally gone against the grain and been proved right to do so.

With regards to the negotiations that would ensue after brexit it's refreshing to see that it's acknowledged that we're in a strong bargaining position. For me there is a vested interest in keeping our existing trade terms in place between ourselves and the EU. It benefits them and it benefits us. The EEA nations may not like this arrangement, and the political elite of the EU may not like it either but with the hand we would be dealt after brexit with the EU in the situation it is in and our economy being the size and state it is in (much larger than current EEA members and comparatively healthy compared to much of the EU) we should be able to achieve a deal not to different to what we have now I believe.

Free and open trade and mutual co-operation, but we govern ourselves.

Where on Earth do you get the idea that "its acknowledged we're in a strong bargaining position"

BobQ

Conrad wrote: »

Well done, weapons grade evidence, found.

So an opinion expressed by a member of Lawyers for Britain is presented as an unbiased legal opinion. That Lawyers for Britain is a campaigning organisation supporting Brexit is of course irrelevant.

The treaty itself states it is between the " European Union and its Member States, of the one part, and the Republic of Korea, of the other part"

Now I am not a lawyer, and the Express does not give the original source, but surely this means it is an agreement with EU members and not ex-EU members?

Edit:
The opinion expressed by LFB is somewhat less definitive than that reported is the Express.

The EU has existing free trade agreements which currently apply to the UK as an EU member. ....... Both the EU and the member states (including the UK) are parties to these agreements. The UK could simply continue to apply the substantive terms of these agreements on a reciprocal basis after exit unless the counterparty State were actively to object. We can see no rational reason why the counterparty States would object ..........

That is a fair comment. In the same way that we can continue to have free trade with the EU without contributing to its governance and without Freedom of Movement, We can do this as long as the EU does not object.

gfplux

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I don't think anyone seriously looking into the brexit argument will say that there won't be an initial shock, investors hate uncertainty, rightly so I would too if I was parting with my money. I'd say that up to the vote there will be volatility in the markets. If the result is a brexit vote then there may be some continued volatility during the negotiation. I would not use market movements to indicate whether investors want you to leave or remain, it's the uncertainty they hate.

If after a Brexit the pound loses some value (almost a given even with Brexiteres) there will be an opportunity for those with Dollars, Renminbi and Euros to pick up Property and Company's on the cheap in London.
So not all bad news.

gfplux

Conrad wrote: »

No offence Tricky but what you say here I've heard many times, but it's a little bit unrealistic to expect.


More or less every point is contested, and as such no one is going to be able to deliver a 'facts based debate' because each side will not agree with the others facts.

Bremain imply Brits will have to leave Spain as 'Leave cant guarantee anything' but this would completely ruin the Spanish economy, so it is a fact to say of course Spain and the UK will act in an adult manner and do nothing to cause pointless hardship either side. 1% of all Norwegians live in Spain, no EU membership needed. So who has the facts here?


Another example if Brexit says China and others trade quite happily with the EU without having 'a say on the rules', this is a fact, but Cleggy types will just filter this out and so debate is rendered almost pointless.


Or if we say Norway and Switzerland are in top 5 happiest and most prosperous nations, this is a fact, but instead of recognising this the Bremains will say 'ah but they suffer regulation by fax' and so it goes.


In the end surely it comes down to you either having trust in your nation to stand tall and make her way in the world, or you fear change and just don't want to chance it.

You are quite right Conrad when you say every "fact" is contested but please tell the full story.
The large numbers, proportionally, of Norwegians who live in Spain I imagine have to have Private Health Insurance, pay Spanish Social Service or pay as they go for medical treatment as they DO NOT have a E111 or EHIC card.
Brits living in Spain with Britain in the EU have the EHIC cover. With Brexit Spain would need a special deal to continue to fund Brits healthcare. In the negotiations who will speak for them?

TrickyTree83

gfplux wrote: »

Where on Earth do you get the idea that "its acknowledged we're in a strong bargaining position"

Comments on this forum.

gfplux

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

They would risk the economies of Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece for a dig at the UK?

I think they are threatening to do so to try and convince us to vote Remain. If they carried through on the threat to "rap us on the knuckles" then the shock will be bad for the UK but also bad for the EU. You have to consider the bond prices of all these struggling Euro economies will rise above what they can deal with and they're end up with another crisis, like Greece, probably another in Greece, it'll be a disaster for them as much as us.

There's a mutual interest to keep things stable.

I completely agree TrckyTree everyone wants stability. Stability is good.
However we and you have to except Politiciens are what they are and not what we would wish them to be.
As you must know the balance of power (MEP's) in the EU does not reflect the politics of all individual country's.
So hypothetically, while a Socialist Government in France would want to secure higher employment for young French people. However the "centrist" grouping in the EU might want higher youth unemployment to destabilise the French Government.
Remember this is Politics.
How often have you heard the Phrase "Mr X the Prime minister of Country Y is talking to his Party back home" when he is making a statement on the steps of the EU in Brussels.

I don't say any of the above to be contentious, this is life as it is. So don't count on common sense prevailing during any negotiations after a Brexit.
I mean a lack of common sense on both sides, the EU AND Britain