If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

Filo25 wrote: »

Canada doesn't have full access to the single market.

It has quite a good deal, but we are a far more important local customer so will get a better deal.


French, Spanish and Italian youth unemployment are at frightening levels, it is absolutely bonkers to think they would wish to create trade waves with their biggest consumer market, the UK.


The EU is on an economic knife edge, as soon as we vote leave the EU will want to reach an amicable settlement so as not to add to it's economic uncertainty. Putting up its prices via tariffs would add to it's woes and be totally self destructive.


This debate all comes down to your confidence in Britain to cut her way in the world


The economic case for leaving is vast.


IN ANY EVENT THE SM 'BONUS' IS ONLY 3/4% OF TRADE DONE WITH EU, AND NOT NEEDED AT ALL - JAPAN, KOREA AND MANY OTHER PROSEPRING NATIONS SELL TO EU WITHOUT SM MEMBERSHIP. We will get a decent trade deal anyway and be free to deal with the world as we see fit - a massive boon

Conrad

Filo25 wrote: »

If the UK votes for Brexit, it would clearly be in the interests of both parties to come to a deal, but that doesn't always mean one can be done quickly,

It does.


EU is on a economic tight wire. Italian Banks have lost 50% of share value this year, some have gone bust, 19% of their loans in default, and this is JUST ONE of the EU's economic time bombs.


Thus the EU absolutely has a critical need to reduce and waves caused by Brexit and will want trade to be unmolested.


You've seen French workers out on strike last week - imagine what would happen if the EU tries to put up French wine and car prices, which would mean we would by wine from Australia and Chile and cars from Japan, UK and Korea.............


VW's are made in Brazil, if the Saxony made versions go up in price.............

Conrad

Some of those wanting an independent Britain;

• 
  
• Anne McElvoy – senior editor The Economist
• Former Chancellor – Lord Lamont
• Former Chancellor – Nigel Lawson
• Angela Leadsom
• James Dellingpole
• Steve Hilton – Camerons former adviser
• Mark Littlewood
• Frank Field
• Theresa Villiers
• Jacob Reese-Mogg
• Crispin Blunt – Foreign Affairs Committee head
• Armed Forces Minister – Penny Mordaunt
• Justice Minister – Dominic Raub
• Lord Owen
• Clair Fox – The Institute Of ideas
• Boris
• Dr Liam Fox
• Toby Young
• Pritti Patel
• Professor Patrick Minford
• Owner of Wetherspoons
• Gerard Lyons, former chief economist at Standard Chartered
• Daniel Hannan – leader of Conservatives in EU
• Giesla Stewart
• Kate Hoey
• Luke Johnson (head of Risk Capital)
• David Davis
• Peter Lilly
• Isabel Oakshott
• Former Bundesbank boss Axel Weber "The UK would get a very favourable deal with the EU”

Filo25

Conrad wrote: »

It does.


EU is on a economic tight wire. Italian Banks have lost 50% of share value this year, some have gone bust, 19% of their loans in default, and this is JUST ONE of the EU's economic time bombs.


Thus the EU absolutely has a critical need to reduce and waves caused by Brexit and will want trade to be unmolested.


You've seen French workers out on strike last week - imagine what would happen if the EU tries to put up French wine and car prices, which would mean we would by wine from Australia and Chile and cars from Japan, UK and Korea.............

I agree that the EU certainly wants a deal with the UK, but the UK also wants one with the EU, lets not make out that only one side needs this!

The economy has grown reasonably well in recent years but we still have a very significant deficit to fund and reduce, in a weakening global economy, at a time when judging by recent U-turns most of the politically "easy" savings have already been found.

Don't get me wrong I would rather have the UK's economy than that of the Mediterranean disaster zones, but its not all roses here either, and trade with the EU obviously makes up a much larger proportion of UK GDP than trade with the UK does of the EU's GDP.

I'm not trying to belittle the UK here, just saying that it would be optimistic that the EU will be desperate to do a deal with us that we will get offered amazing terms, there is certainly leverage on both sides of this one, and the EU won't want to undermine its deals with the EEA states with whatever they agree with us.

Its all speculation at this point, as for all the public utterances, we have no idea what the real red lines are on either side.

TrickyTree83

Professor Patrick Minford

That guy for me is a deal-breaker. He's been correct about a number of things and has generally gone against the grain and been proved right to do so.

With regards to the negotiations that would ensue after brexit it's refreshing to see that it's acknowledged that we're in a strong bargaining position. For me there is a vested interest in keeping our existing trade terms in place between ourselves and the EU. It benefits them and it benefits us. The EEA nations may not like this arrangement, and the political elite of the EU may not like it either but with the hand we would be dealt after brexit with the EU in the situation it is in and our economy being the size and state it is in (much larger than current EEA members and comparatively healthy compared to much of the EU) we should be able to achieve a deal not to different to what we have now I believe.

Free and open trade and mutual co-operation, but we govern ourselves.

Conrad

Filo25 wrote: »

Don't get me wrong I would rather have the UK's economy than that of the Mediterranean disaster zones, but its not all roses here either, and trade with the EU obviously makes up a much larger proportion of UK GDP than trade with the UK does of the EU's GDP.


That's another Bremain misnomer. The point is we buy a huge amount from CERTAIN EU nations, such as France and Germany, so spreading the whole EU export trade over 27 nations is misleading.


No way will France and Spain, Italy and Portugal want higher unemployment that will result if they increase their prices and we buy Chilean tomatoes and wine, Japanese cars.


I'm not trying to belittle the UK here, just saying that it would be optimistic that the EU will be desperate to do a deal with us that we will get offered amazing terms, there is certainly leverage on both sides of this one, and the EU won't want to undermine its deals with the EEA states with whatever they agree with us.


No one has said the UK holds the whip hand.
We are saying both sides have a mutual interest in reaching a good deal all round. The last thing the EU needs is more waves and uncertainty, it will want things sorted in a grown-up manner that does not increase their unemployment and fragility.


As to 'the EU wont want to undermine its deals with EEA states', well firstly maybe it will have no choice and secondly I must keep reminding people YOU DONT NEED A TRADE DEAL TO TRADE and the supposed benefits are tiny anyway and easily offset.


Many many examples, but just consider the US/UK biggest mutual investors relationship - no trade deal needed. Look in your knickers draw - China has no trade deal with EU, who cares


Only 11/12% of UK GDP is traded in EU and of this, we get a 3/4% tariff reduction but have to pay high customs union prices and a membership fee not to mention less democratic control and less ability to trade globally as we see fit





.

Me in blue

happylucky

So, in past 24 hours, gbp devaluations of about 1.6% average versus major currencies. I spy 2.7% peak to trough devaluation versus the Aussie dollar at one point.

And that's what the non-vested interests who put their money where their mouth is think about a small increase in the chance of Brexit.

Not looking great

Conrad

happylucky wrote: »

So, in past 24 hours, gbp devaluations of about 1.6% average versus major currencies. I spy 2.7% peak to trough devaluation versus the Aussie dollar at one point.

And that's what the non-vested interests who put their money where their mouth is think about a small increase in the chance of Brexit.

Not looking great

Follow the money - Germans still want to buy Stock Exchange, Nissan / Renault investing heavily regardless, UBS opened a massive new office in London.


A bit of noise on currency markets is nothing.

TrickyTree83

happylucky wrote: »

So, in past 24 hours, gbp devaluations of about 1.6% average versus major currencies. I spy 2.7% peak to trough devaluation versus the Aussie dollar at one point.

And that's what the non-vested interests who put their money where their mouth is think about a small increase in the chance of Brexit.

Not looking great

I don't think anyone seriously looking into the brexit argument will say that there won't be an initial shock, investors hate uncertainty, rightly so I would too if I was parting with my money. I'd say that up to the vote there will be volatility in the markets. If the result is a brexit vote then there may be some continued volatility during the negotiation. I would not use market movements to indicate whether investors want you to leave or remain, it's the uncertainty they hate.

Filo25

Conrad wrote: »

Me in blue

You see my concern here is on the one hand you say nobody is assuming the UK holds the whip hand in the negotiation.

Followed by shortly afterwards basically saying that the EU have no choice but to give us the deal which we want with no concessions from our side.

There is a contradiction here.

Not saying it won't happen, but I don't think its the most likely scenario in the world, and if we have the attitude that its that deal or nothing (and I'm not saying that will be our attitude) with no compromise on our side then it may well end up being nothing.

Agree that trade can continue in the absence of a deal, as I have said many times before, but tariff and non-tariff barriers clearly would have a negative impact.