If we vote for Brexit what happens

Rinoa

Generali wrote: »

Interesting piece on the attitudes in Europe to a Brexit:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/31/tusk-blames-utopian-eu-elites-for-eurosceptic-revolt-and-brexit/

TL;DR version? There is a desire to punish the UK if she votes Brexit but not enough to stop Brits buying Beemers.

European Union?

Maybe a re-brand to European Disunion would be more appropriate.

mrginge

Well I read that article in two ways.

1. The EU is so financially screwed that they can't afford to shut us out and have no desire to anyway.
2. Many other countries are sick of the push to integration.

Sounds very much like the threat of isolation trawled out by remain is, as most sensible people know, a load of bobbins.

TrickyTree83

mrginge wrote: »

Well I read that article in two ways.

1. The EU is so financially screwed that they can't afford to shut us out and have no desire to anyway.
2. Many other countries are sick of the push to integration.

Sounds very much like the threat of isolation trawled out by remain is, as most sensible people know, a load of bobbins.

Also sounds like Tusk and others around the EU share the sentiment that the EU institutions are out of touch with the people.

The UK has always been a prickly member of the EU so it comes as no surprise to me that we're the first to have a vote to leave. Having said that I would have also thought that after the Greek crisis that they would have left if they were given the option to do so, they didn't give them the option probably because they knew the result would be against the wishes of the political class, a similar story to some of those portrayed in the article in other less 'basket-case' countries. Which as the article also states should be worrying to the EU politicos.

michaels

OECD says GDP might be 5% lower in 14 years if we vote for BREXIT:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36423859

However given population is also likely to be 2-3% lower the actual impact on GDP per head is marginal.

I wonder what the counterfactual of UK leaves and EU breaks up into a free trade zone with multiple currencies - I suspect overall European GDP would be higher.

Filo25

mrginge wrote: »

Well I read that article in two ways.

1. The EU is so financially screwed that they can't afford to shut us out and have no desire to anyway.
2. Many other countries are sick of the push to integration.

Sounds very much like the threat of isolation trawled out by remain is, as most sensible people know, a load of bobbins.

Reading it with my "Remain" hat on, on the other hand, I would say that it shows that as many of us have been saying for a while, there is significant opposition to further integration in many EU nations, so if the UK wishes to oppose that in future they will not find themselves alone in doing so.

If the EU does continue its seemingly most likely evolution to Core and Periphery nations, there will be a lot more countries joining us in the periphery than many Brexiters seem to think.

In terms of post Brexit negotiation, I think the EU's position will obviously be that full access to the singe market requires EEA access with all that entails.

If that is a price we aren't willing to pay then I imagine it will turn into a reasonably long negotiation to reach a mutually acceptable deal

mrginge

Filo25 wrote: »

In terms of post Brexit negotiation, I think the EU's position will obviously be that full access to the singe market requires EEA access with all that entails.

If that is a price we aren't willing to pay then I imagine it will turn into a reasonably long negotiation to reach a mutually acceptable deal

Yawn. Aside from the fact that it isn't 'obvious', if that is the EU's position then there will be no negotiation and we will carry on without a deal.

The Brexit position seems fairly clear. No free movement of labour.

Filo25

mrginge wrote: »

Yawn. Aside from the fact that it isn't 'obvious', if that is the EU's position then there will be no negotiation and we will carry on without a deal.

The Brexit position seems fairly clear. No free movement of labour.

So sorry to have bored you, just pointing out that in all previous negotiations that I am aware of the EU has made EEA membership a condition of full access to the Single market, so not sure why their opening offer to us would be any different (assuming we want full access)

With regards to no free movement of Labour, that's certainly the UKIP position, and the position of many voting for Brexit but whether its really the underlying position of many senior Tories, I don't think anyone knows, no matter how much noise they make about disapproving of current immigration levels.

As other Brexit voters have pointed out, we have no idea what the official Brexit position is, because there isn't one.

LHW99

According to the Guardian a country that supposedly cannot survive without the EU to help it would have as large an impact on the global economy as a hard landing in China
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jun/01/oecd-warning-global-economy-factories-brexit-live?page=with:block-574e9d64e4b0467e825fb884#block-574e9d64e4b0467e825fb884

So - not just total recession and WW3 - global armageddon and world economic meltdown.
REALLY?

CLAPTON

Filo25 wrote: »

S

As other Brexit voters have pointed out, we have no idea what the official Brexit position is, because there isn't one.

in exactly the same way as there isn't an official 'remain' position

BarleyGB

Now we have the OECD predicting global Armageddon if UK leaves the EU. I don't believe it, I thought we were a small and insignificant county unable to make our own way in the world.

If the consequences of leaving are as claimed, why didn't the EU offer us more than pathetic platitudes, why was cameron not ruling out EU exit 3 months ago?