If we vote for Brexit what happens

Generali

Rinoa wrote: »

Fair enough.

But if the EU exports twice as much to us as we do to them, they obviously stand to lose £200Bn and 2 million jobs.

It will be a win win for both UK and EU to carry on trading as we do now.

I guess it depends on how you view things.

If the EU is a single country-type entity then leaving is likely to be very messy (Yugoslavia, South Sudan, Timor).

If the EU is a group of countries then there are only a couple that export more to the UK than the UK exports to.

Rinoa

Generali wrote: »

I guess it depends on how you view things.

If the EU is a single country-type entity then leaving is likely to be very messy (Yugoslavia, South Sudan, Timor).

If the EU is a group of countries then there are only a couple that export more to the UK than the UK exports to.

If that's the case it's fortunate the country exporting the most to us is the one generally considered to be running the show.

BTW this new report commissioned by the CBI was compiled by Price Waterhouse Coopers, a company long in the pay of the EU as their website reveals.

http://order-order.com/2016/03/21/cbis-pro-eu-report-by-eu-funded-pwc/

.string.

mayonnaise wrote: »

John Major on Brexit.

The “leave” campaign blandly assumes that once they have undermined – if not wrecked – the power of the EU by leaving it, they can simply re-negotiate all the advantages of membership with pliant Europeans eager for our trade. This is self-deception to the point of delusion. Their argument is that the EU needs the UK market more than we need theirs, on the basis that – overall – the EU exports more to the UK than we export to them. This is, at best, disingenuous. More bluntly, it is fantasy.
UK exports to Europe are nearly 45 per cent of our total exports. On average – across the EU – the other 27 Member States send only 7% of their total exports to us. In the game of who needs who the most, the answer is clear. Our European partners will not be the demandeur in any negotiations on the Single Market – we will be.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12199111/John-Major-Voting-to-leave-will-poison-Europe-and-divide-West.html

But yes, I hear you, brexiteers, we will have more control over our borders. Borders of an isolated, impoverished island. Wonderful.

Yes that is a point that the brexit lot seem unable to grasp/want to ignore; all that stuff about cars and Mercedes getting worried etc giving us some sort of negotiation leverage.

Given that so much of our exports have been going to the EU will, the UK, will be desperate to maintain that level and we will be the ones who need an agreements more than the EU.

Oh we will get some sort of agreement eventually, but as a result our goods to the EU will suffer a tariff and our goods will still need to obey, repeat obey, EU regulations on which we will have absolutely no say whatsoever.

As to who gains in the merry-go-round of tariff application, that will depend on the relative strength of the pound. If the pound goes down our goods will recover some competitiveness in Europe but their goods will cost us more. If the pound goes up our goods will become less competitive.

On the other hand if we stay in Europe we are at least protected from the tarif hassle.

mayonnaise

Property investors delay UK commercial deals on Brexit fears
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fb2999cc-eead-11e5-9f20-c3a047354386.html#axzz43XPCNV3y

Pierre Vaquier, chief executive of the real assets division of Axa Investment Managers — an arm of the French insurer that manages €65bn in property and infrastructure assets, said his company was in “wait and hold” mode ahead of the vote.

Rob Wilkinson, chief executive of AEW Europe, which manages €18bn of property assets, said his company would probably make any deals signed between now and June conditional on the UK voting to remain.

Richard Divall, head of cross-border capital markets at the real estate advisers Colliers, said he was aware of a Chinese investor exchanging contracts on a UK property deal with a clause making its completion conditional on a vote to remain.

Germany’s Union Investment said this month it had delayed the purchase of a City of London office building because of the risk of Britain voting to leave the EU.

When even a risk of Brexit is putting off inward investment right now, imagine the carnage if we actually vote ourselves out....

CLAPTON

.string. wrote: »

Yes that is a point that the brexit lot seem unable to grasp/want to ignore; all that stuff about cars and Mercedes getting worried etc giving us some sort of negotiation leverage.

Given that so much of our exports have been going to the EU will, the UK, will be desperate to maintain that level and we will be the ones who need an agreements more than the EU.

Oh we will get some sort of agreement eventually, but as a result our goods to the EU will suffer a tariff and our goods will still need to obey, repeat obey, EU regulations on which we will have absolutely no say whatsoever.

As to who gains in the merry-go-round of tariff application, that will depend on the relative strength of the pound. If the pound goes down our goods will recover some competitiveness in Europe but their goods will cost us more. If the pound goes up our goods will become less competitive.

On the other hand if we stay in Europe we are at least protected from the tarif hassle.

When the EU exports to the US we have to 'obey' their rules just as the EU 'obey ' the Aus rules and 'obey' China's and S Korea and Japan etc etc
And of course the EU has absolutely NO SAY in these regulations.
Absolutely no change there.
The difference is these trading partners don't get to tell us to charge 20% VAT on energy efficiency products or VAT on tampons or how we should organise our agricultural industry.

Trade is mutually beneficial to both parties : there is no reason for the EU to damage their own people by restricting trade : one might note that unemployment is significantly higher in the EU than in the UK.

CLAPTON

mayonnaise wrote: »

Property investors delay UK commercial deals on Brexit fears
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fb2999cc-eead-11e5-9f20-c3a047354386.html#axzz43XPCNV3y




When even a risk of Brexit is putting off inward investment right now, imagine the carnage if we actually vote ourselves out....

inward 'investment ' simply means
-that for the next 100 years all the profits/dividends go abroad: why is that a good thing?
-that the capital flow artificially keep the value of the pound too high and ensure our current account balance is in large deficit

an overseas PFI deal.

.string.

CLAPTON wrote: »

When the EU exports to the US we have to 'obey' their rules just as the EU 'obey ' the Aus rules and 'obey' China's and S Korea and Japan etc etc
And of course the EU has absolutely NO SAY in these regulations.
Absolutely no change there.

I am puzzling why, if you are not concerned about obeying rules and regulations imposed by the countries you mention, you are so uptight about, specifically, EU regulations and some sort of perceived democratic deficiency related to those "rules" in the EU.

If you don't care, where is the incentive to leave? You're not making consistent sense on this one.

Weird.

mayonnaise

EU exit threat to UK food security, says report

The UK’s forthcoming in-out referendum on 23 June will have “momentous significance” for the country’s food system, says a report by Food Research Collaboration.

Called Food, the UK and the EU: Brexit or Bremain?, the briefing paper argues that country must “wake up to the enormity of unravelling 43 years of co-negotiated food legislation”.

If the country decided to leave, food imports would become more expensive, prices would increase and there could be major disruptions to supply chains, says the report.

The Brits need to stop joking about wine lakes, bent bananas and myths from the EU past, which have been sorted, and get real about security of food supply today and tomorrow.

http://www.fwi.co.uk/news/eu-exit-threat-to-uk-food-security-report.htm

Food supply. Probably not high on the agenda for our Angry Little England Supremacists with an irrational fear of 'the other'.

Sapphire

Angry Little England Supremacists with an irrational fear of 'the other'

What desperate nonsense. Hearing someone on the 'leave side' come out with a statement like that makes me all the happier to be voting for Brexit. :T

CLAPTON

.string. wrote: »

I am puzzling why, if you are not concerned about obeying rules and regulations imposed by the countries you mention, you are so uptight about, specifically, EU regulations and some sort of perceived democratic deficiency related to those "rules" in the EU.

If you don't care, where is the incentive to leave? You're not making consistent sense on this one.

Weird.

It is completely normal, when trading a specific product that the importing country that one would conform to the standards of the inward country.
It is completely abnormal to have to conform to 100s of totally unrelated rules and regulation that have nothing to do with the product types being imported.

So if e.g. one is exporting cars to a country then conforming to their car safety, pollution etc standards would be normal.
But to have ones other unrelated policies (e.g. agriculture, water management etc), determined by the importer is inappropriate.

Seems all straightforward and normal.