If we vote for Brexit what happens

A_Medium_Size_Jock

kabayiri wrote: »

You may disagree with Conrad, but I think his line of argument has been fairly consistent.

He accepts that some of the things he suggests would actually reduce demand for the property services he offers.

Would you be as consistent with your new found support for the SNP?

Oh the SNP.
Have a look on the "Fish" thread to see the shameful gloating from such pro-SNP acolytes over the attempts at decrying the nurse who dared to question Nicola Sturgeon.
See just how the SNP and supporters thereof behave.
Then they wonder why their support is on the wane.

StevieJ

Conrad wrote: »

How many more times will you guys ask this question?

Remain had a vast advantage, the entire Establishment, world leaders, Economists, the Govt of the day all batted for Remain.

In this context Leave winning was a myrical, an effective landslide.

Every time someone suggests that Remainers should shut up and accept the nonsense that is leaving the EU. A second referendum on the final terms of our exit is essential, when the time is right.

Thrugelmir

StevieJ wrote: »

Every time someone suggests that Remainers should shut up and accept the nonsense that is leaving the EU. A second referendum on the final terms of our exit is essential, when the time is right.

Which leaves the real possibility of no deal as the outcome.

kabayiri

StevieJ wrote: »

Every time someone suggests that Remainers should shut up and accept the nonsense that is leaving the EU. A second referendum on the final terms of our exit is essential, when the time is right.

If the 16m remainers believe this, they can go out and vote for LibDem. They will offer exactly what you want.

You can't say you don't have the political choice.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kabayiri wrote: »

You may disagree with Conrad, but I think his line of argument has been fairly consistent.

Consistently wrong.

Would you be as consistent with your new found support for the SNP?

I don't support the SNP.

However I do support doing whatever it takes for Scotland to stay in the EU or EEA - even if, as a last resort, that means breaking up the UK.

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Consistently wrong.
I don't support the SNP.

However I do support doing whatever it takes for Scotland to stay in the EU or EEA - even if, as a last resort, that means breaking up the UK.

Well since Conservative Home are running a whole week long series investigating ( or in other words extolling the virtues ) :-

Introducing a week-long series on what WTO would mean

http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/05/the-brexit-negotiation-an-fta-or-wto-deal-no-deal-or-a-mass-of-small-deals.html

Comment underneath :-

WTO it is then. If CH is running a series of articles telling us that WTO will be fine you can bet that's where they think we are headed. I applaud giving us an idea of what that actually means but suspect it will all be spun far more positively than what will happen in reality and it will be more of an exercise to butter us up for the inevitable.

Davies is getting more and more insistent that there will be no exit bills paid, there's been rumours flying about since Feb from 'inside sources'. Soubry mentioned it too around then that she feared the plan all along was to walk off with no deal after the German elections.

Am not sure EEA/EFTA or the EU for the UK is going to happen. No deal and WTO is getting mentioned more and more often. Though of course May seems to have hit some choppy waters during this GE which was supposed to give her a super majority in order to railroad it all through. She might not be able to now.

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Though of course May seems to have hit some choppy waters during this GE which was supposed to give her a super majority in order to railroad it all through. She might not be able to now.

Little point in preempting talks that haven't started. Both sides need an agreement of some sorts. The default position of the UK being no deal at the start of them. If the list of demands is simply too onerous. With the loss of the UK the EU has a rather large funding gap. That one seems willing to bridge. Nor forget that the UK has invested for many years. So assets need to be factored into the equation not just liabilities.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Which leaves the real possibility of no deal as the outcome.

There's a pretty real possibility we'll have a no deal outcome even without another referendum on the deal. Our red lines are completely incompatible with the EU.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

There's a pretty real possibility we'll have a no deal outcome even without another referendum on the deal. Our red lines are completely incompatible with the EU.

Well if the EU will insist on an implacable stance ..........

In recent weeks member states have hardened the EU’s stance, setting increasingly exacting requirements for Britain in the divorce stage of the negotiations to meet before trade talks can begin. Even with an election campaign in full flow in Britain, there were few signs of reservations or dissent among the 27 ministers over the aim-high approach to talks. This includes a maximalist view of Britain’s financial obligations that underpins an estimated exit bill of €55-75bn in net terms, covering everything from the costs of moving London-based EU agencies to EU farm payments in 2019 and 2020. In gross terms, the EU has raised its opening demand for Britain’s Brexit bill to up to €100bn.

https://www.ft.com/content/c83990ca-3f07-11e7-82b6-896b95f30f58

David Davis has said we will walk ........ but thinks a deal will be done:

"We don't need to just look like we can walk away, we need to be able to walk away," he told the Sunday Times newspaper. "Under the circumstances, if that was necessary, we would be in a position to do it."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-davis-idUKKBN18H0PX

As many have said, by far most of this is initial posturing.
Wotsit-waving if you will.

The likelihood (from past EU performance) is months and months of waffle, disagreement, threat and coercion before - at the eleventh hour - a real attempt at mutual agreement will be made.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Besides the Greek debacle I thought I would post another example of EU coercion.
Not, I know, that any more proof is needed but no one commented before.

Brexit negotiator Verhofstadt urges Polish to RISE UP against their eurosceptic government

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/807619/European-Union-Brexit-negotiator-Guy-Verhofstadt-rails-against-Polish-government

That is the government that Poles elected!
Yes I know it's the Express.
For those non-Polish readers out there, here's a translated article direct from Poland:
https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=pl&u=http://natemat.pl/208603,sadze-ze-dlatego-polski-rzad-mnie-nie-lubi-verhofstadt-punktuje-co-kaczynski-zrobil-by-zmniejszyc-role-polski&prev=search
Many Poles are not happy at all.