If we vote for Brexit what happens

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

Remain posters tell us the pound is devalued, but again it's only fallen to the fair value level several global authorities said it should have been at well before June 2016 in order to restore UK competitiveness.

Addressing the unsustainable trade imbalance is absolutely vital, and if that means inflation rising (but still low historically) so be it, J curve benefits are already being felt.

Is a J-curve still supposed to go downwards after almost a year?

British industrial output shrank for a third month in a row in March, official data showed on Thursday, underscoring how the impact of last year's Brexit vote has begun to weigh on the economy.

The Office for National Statistics also said Britain's trade deficit widened by more than expected, a further setback for hopes that the fall in the value of the pound since the European Union membership referendum would help rebalance the economy.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-idUKKBN1870WF

Thrugelmir

Production was dragged lower as warmer-than-average temperatures led to a 4.2% fall in energy supply,

Now even the weather is being blamed on Brexit. What's next? :eek:

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

How many more times will you guys ask this question?

Remain had a vast advantage, the entire Establishment, world leaders, Economists, the Govt of the day all batted for Remain.

In this context Leave winning was a myrical, an effective landslide.

Leave therefor had the anti-establishment and protest votes - see the people who voted Leave not expecting it to win. Plus the lies from both sides, I don't think anyone can seriously claim anyone won anything.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mayonnaise wrote: »

Is a J-curve still supposed to go downwards after almost a year?

Your links are now out of date.
March has been and gone; look at April:

UK manufacturing grows at fastest rate for three years

https://dafferns.com/news/uk-manufacturing-grows-at-fastest-rate-for-three-years/

UK manufacturers reported “solid improvement” at the start of the second quarter with sentiment rising to a three-year high in April

http://www.insider.co.uk/news/manufacturing-output-confidence-orders-rise-10339973

mayonnaise

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Your links are now out of date.
March has been and gone; look at April:

https://dafferns.com/news/uk-manufacturing-grows-at-fastest-rate-for-three-years/

My links are not out of date.
My links are 2 weeks old and reflect actual ONS data for March which happens to be the most recent data set.

You link to a Markit survey and an article about sentiment.

Next!

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mayonnaise wrote: »

My links are not out of date.
My links are 2 weeks old and reflect actual ONS data for March which happens to be the most recent data set.

You link to a Markit survey and an article about sentiment.

Next!

No less accurate than ONS preliminary estimates though, are they?

Now despite your scepticism try to read the reports and actual figures?
The ONS on March production:

Total production output for March 2017 compared with March 2016 increased by 1.4%, with growth in three of the four main sectors, with manufacturing providing the largest contribution, increasing by 2.3%.

And:

In this release, the Index of Production estimate for Quarter 1 2017 was revised downwards to 0.1% from 0.3%

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/bulletins/indexofproduction/mar2017

Note that word.
Estimate.
These are not final figures yet, they are estimates.
Which have you should note have been revised from -0.3 to -0.1 in the above linked latest estimate.;)

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

Leave therefor had the anti-establishment and protest votes - see the people who voted Leave not expecting it to win. Plus the lies from both sides, I don't think anyone can seriously claim anyone won anything.

I really don't see that Leave told many lies, compared with Project Fear which was lies and myth from top to bottom, for example not allowing for the FACT the BOE would obviously respond to choppy waters (I went on about this long before the vote) or claiming Calais would IMMEDITATELY move to Dover


The people understood we pay a huge daily / weekly EU club fee and that ONCE WE ARE OUT we can decide how to spend it, so getting hung-up on the actual numbers cannot be said to be a lie.

Conrad

mayonnaise wrote: »

Is a J-curve still supposed to go downwards after almost a year?


http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-idUKKBN1870WF

TREND is the word you're looking for. What are the J-Curve trends since June last year?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Conrad wrote: »

TREND is the word you're looking for. What are the trends since June last year?

Oh please don't lets go there.
From the type of response often given we will no doubt get a response something along the lines of "Flares and a mullet!"


Here's a report that our resident Luxembourger may not like too much:

After Brexit, “it will be crazy,” said Jose Pedro Fernandes, a 56-year-old taxi driver, who moved to Luxembourg from Portugal 15 years ago and earns a living transporting financial workers around the jammed capital that lacks a subway and suffers from inadequate bus services.
Traffic congestion has become “unbearable,” according to Fernandes

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-bankers-leaving-london-wont-like-luxembourg-life-a7748531.html


*Disclaimer*
Not intended as negativity, just a humorous prod.
It is not all bad; have a read.

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

TREND is the word you're looking for. What are the J-Curve trends since June last year?

Here you go : http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade
You could have googled that yourself.