If we vote for Brexit what happens

cogito

Interesting piece in the Graun.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/18/brexit-talks-could-collapse-over-uk-divorce-bill-says-eu-negotiator

Germany and France won't make up the UK's contributions and recipients like Poland won't accept less money. This from Barnier and not some Europhobe.

Doesn't sound to me like the UK will be negotiating from a position of weakness as Remoaners would want us to believe.

vivatifosi

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

Doesn't really matter what you bremmings believe you are running from, the result will be the same - a soggy mess at the foot of the cliff...

So what should happen now? We are where we are. We (remain) lost. Given that we are leaving, what would you like to see happen?

This is something that concerns me. I understand that there is no typical remainer any more than there is a typical leaver. But rather than complaining about everything that a pro-Brexit person says, we need to say what the tangible alternatives are... otherwise we will be no better than Marxians... we'll have a framework for criticising the mainstream way but no tangible policies to move forward as a political group.

For my part, I'd like to see a right to remain for those who have worked here pre vote and set up lives here. I'd like to see a trade agreement with the EU and don't think walking away should be a back stop position. I think that we should pay for the remainder of our membership and pay a fair sum for our on going commitments, but I'd also expect to see a benefit as a result of that, not just a financial sinkhole. I want a fair settlement for Ireland.

I think for all the threats re banking, places like Germany do not have sufficient real estate to relocate that tranche of people, so we need to look at what is being threatened and how realistic that actually is.

I think that a true hard Brexit with no agreement helps no-one. It may satisfy arch-europhiles in Brussels or the irrationally brexuberant here, but it won't help Spanish tomato growers, German car workers or Danish pig farmers; nor, more importantly will it help the British economy.

So, given that it's happening, what do you think is a reasonable settlement?

kabayiri

vivatifosi wrote: »

So what should happen now? We are where we are. We (remain) lost. Given that we are leaving, what would you like to see happen?
...

It's execution mode now. No major UK party is offering an alternative to Brexit in the GE campaign.

Labour say it's happening.
Tories say it's happening.
LibDems have some kind of last minute decision idea at the checkout, but they can't win.

bugslet

vivatifosi wrote: »

I think for all the threats re banking, places like Germany do not have sufficient real estate to relocate that tranche of people, so we need to look at what is being threatened and how realistic that actually is.

?

I listen to R4 in the morning and twice a banking interviewee has said that if London were to lose its international hub reputation, it would be more likely move to either New York or the Far East rather than Frankfurt or Paris.

Good post viva, far too rtional for DT though:)

Conrad

vivatifosi wrote: »

So what should happen now? We are where we are. We (remain) lost. Given that we are leaving, what would you like to see happen?

This is something that concerns me. I understand that there is no typical remainer any more than there is a typical leaver. But rather than complaining about everything that a pro-Brexit person says, we need to say what the tangible alternatives are... otherwise we will be no better than Marxians... we'll have a framework for criticising the mainstream way but no tangible policies to move forward as a political group.

For my part, I'd like to see a right to remain for those who have worked here pre vote and set up lives here. I'd like to see a trade agreement with the EU and don't think walking away should be a back stop position. I think that we should pay for the remainder of our membership and pay a fair sum for our on going commitments, but I'd also expect to see a benefit as a result of that, not just a financial sinkhole. I want a fair settlement for Ireland.

I think for all the threats re banking, places like Germany do not have sufficient real estate to relocate that tranche of people, so we need to look at what is being threatened and how realistic that actually is.

I think that a true hard Brexit with no agreement helps no-one. It may satisfy arch-europhiles in Brussels or the irrationally brexuberant here, but it won't help Spanish tomato growers, German car workers or Danish pig farmers; nor, more importantly will it help the British economy.

So, given that it's happening, what do you think is a reasonable settlement?

A good thoughtful post but I will take issue with the walk away stance.

You simply cannot have a meaningful negotiation that protects your interests without being prepared to walk, it's just the most basic of negotiation realities, just as you would never wander into a car show room announcing you must get a sale done as this would inform the salesman they have you over a barrel.

Conrad

cogito wrote: »

Interesting piece in the Graun.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/18/brexit-talks-could-collapse-over-uk-divorce-bill-says-eu-negotiator

Germany and France won't make up the UK's contributions and recipients like Poland won't accept less money. This from Barnier and not some Europhobe.

Doesn't sound to me like the UK will be negotiating from a position of weakness as Remoaners would want us to believe.

Exactly, and the last thing the key exporting fund contributing EU nations need on top of lost club fee is lost trade, this is such a basic point in our favour.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

vivatifosi wrote: »

So what should happen now?

Now the campaign to rejoin begins.

And we've seen the playbook for how to win such a campaign...

There will be no coming together - no re-uniting of society.

The leave campaigners spent the last few decades being as disruptive about Europe as they could, while their allies in the gutter press stirred up anti-EU sentiment based largely on divisiveness, exaggerations and often even outright fake news.

For pro-Europeans it is now their duty to actively resist and disrupt the process to take Britain out of the EU via any legal, political or civic protest means possible - and whilst sadly we will indeed be leaving for now - then the campaign to rejoin will begin.

We will ensure that just as much pressure is brought to bear against the leavers as was against the EU for the last few decades, and continue to speak out and hold the government and leave campaign to account.

It is naive and frankly arrogant for Theresa May to expect that the people who wished to remain as EU citizens should now just roll over and accept the loss of their rights, their EU citizenship, and their freedoms.

Britain is divided and will only become more so.

And if breaking up the UK via democratic action in some or all of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar protects the democratically expressed choice of the people in those nations to stay in the EU then so be it.

Theresa May is likely to be remembered as nothing but a total failure - the Unionist PM who lost the Union....

vivatifosi

Conrad wrote: »

A good thoughtful post but I will take issue with the walk away stance.

You simply cannot have a meaningful negotiation that protects your interests without being prepared to walk, it's just the most basic of negotiation realities, just as you would never wander into a car show room announcing you must get a sale done as this would inform the salesman they have you over a barrel.

Negotiating positions are one thing, seeing no deal as preferable/desirable is something else entirely. It is the latter I am ta!king about.

Enterprise_1701C

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Now the campaign to rejoin begins.

And we've seen the playbook for how to win such a campaign... The leave campaigners spent the last few decades being as disruptive about Europe as they could, while their allies in the gutter press stirred up anti-EU sentiment based largely on divisiveness, exaggerations and often even outright fake news.

There will be no coming together - no re-uniting of society.



For pro-Europeans it is now their duty to actively resist and disrupt the process to take Britain out of the EU via any legal, political or civic protest means possible - and whilst sadly we will indeed be leaving for now - then the campaign to rejoin will begin.

We will ensure that just as much pressure is brought to bear against the leavers as was against the EU for the last few decades, and continue to speak out and hold the government and leave campaign to account.

It is naive and frankly arrogant for Theresa May to expect that the people who wished to remain as EU citizens should now just roll over and accept the loss of their rights, their EU citizenship, and their freedoms.

Britain is divided and will only become more so.

And if breaking up the UK via democratic action in some or all of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar protects the democratically expressed choice of the people in those nations to stay in the EU then so be it.

Theresa May is likely to be remembered as nothing but a total failure - the Unionist PM who lost the Union....

You would have expected leave to roll over if remain had won.

IF we were to rejoin they would take us for every penny, and all new accession treaties include an agreement to join the euro. Do you really want to destroy the UK economy that much, and I know you will say we are destroying it by leaving, that has yet to come to pass, and if the economy suffers it will be short term pain for long term gain. If we were to rejoin we would lose everything. I for one will never vote for the country to cease existing.

And that is what they want, they want a federal superstate, and that is what we would have to agree to if we were to rejoin.

kabayiri

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Now the campaign to rejoin begins.
...

How can you simultaneously argue for a unionist rejoin campaign whilst at the same time support a bunch of separatists up in Scotland?

It seems somewhat contradictory...