If we vote for Brexit what happens

gfplux

setmefree2 wrote: »

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-general-election-live-brexit-european-commission-theresa-may-rig-interference-a7717561.html

While it is all political fun and games you do bring up a serious point.
On both sides there is a huge amount of intellectual power, energy, money, time and man/women power be used up by Brexit.

Whatever the outcome that will have serious consequences for both sides.

mrginge

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm seeing places having problems and citing Brexit specifically, so I think it's fair to say Brexit is partially to blame. What happened before not attributed to anything is irrelevant.

Plus, I'm seeing lots of places struggling due to Brexit, and some investment despite of Brexit, but I don't think I've seen any of these great new opportunities ahead yet. There will likely be an increase in port/customs/admin staff, but I don't think that'll bring any real economic advantage.

So in summary, you are moaning because despite us not having left the eu yet, all the bad stuff is happening because of brexit. And at the same time you are moaning because there is no good stuff that should have started despite us not having left the eu yet.

Thanks.

Herzlos

gfplux wrote: »

On both sides there is a huge amount of intellectual power, energy, money, time and man/women power be used up by Brexit.

Yeah I see a lot of wasted energy. Just think what we could have done with all that time if we weren't sabre rattling about Brexit?

setmefree2

Tromking wrote: »

I wonder if Merkel and the Luxembourger Lush have misjudged this one?

I seen that myself. I think it was Newsnight.

Personally, once I know we have our ducks in a row with the WTO I'm happy for the UK to walk....whatever the consequences - people have voted to Leave - if we are less well off so be it....

...lets be honest - we just lived through the worst crisis since the 1930s and really was it that bad?

So I'm happy to walk away - as long as we have a schedule with the WTO (I hope Liam Fox is working on this as I type...)

gfplux

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm seeing places having problems and citing Brexit specifically, so I think it's fair to say Brexit is partially to blame. What happened before not attributed to anything is irrelevant.

Plus, I'm seeing lots of places struggling due to Brexit, and some investment despite of Brexit, but I don't think I've seen any of these great new opportunities ahead yet. There will likely be an increase in port/customs/admin staff, but I don't think that'll bring any real economic advantage.

While correct I hope that exporters who will have been having great success since June 2016 devaluation of the pound will be on the front pages of the newspapers very soon.
Given the often criticised job security of employees (easy to recruit difficult to fire) those same exporters are probably only now feeling comfortable enough in their new found export success to increase capacity and hire extra people.
I am sure the Banks have also been cautious in lending too early the additional working capital. That cash must now be flowing (10 months of proven additional export sales) and we will be reading and seeing all the publicity about it.

setmefree2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Your very optimistic of Brexit, why do you not think the same would apply to an Independent Scotland?

Because the UK has a budget defict of less than 3% and Scotland has a budget deficit of 10% (it's bankrupt without England)

Herzlos

setmefree2 wrote: »

if we are less well off so be it....

How much worse off do we need to be before it becomes too much?

...lets be honest - we just lived through the worst crisis since the 1930s and really was it that bad?

For those affected directly it was awful, for those indirectly it was pretty bad, and for those that weren't affected it was good. We had about 75% of our workforce let go, I'm only just above water on a mortgage after 10 years (I'm now sitting at about 99.4% LTV), and I had to deal with nominal/sub-par pay rises for years whilst everything got more expensive. And I was one of the so called lucky ones.

Sure, we scaped by, some people lost their homes/livilihoods/lives, but we eventually move on and adapt.

Would I willingly step into another recession? No chance.

setmefree2

gfplux wrote: »

While it is all political fun and games you do bring up a serious point.
On both sides there is a huge amount of intellectual power, energy, money, time and man/women power be used up by Brexit.

Whatever the outcome that will have serious consequences for both sides.

Maybe.

A lot of global trade is carried out under WTO terms - I'm not sure we need a FTA with the EU to be honest. The average EU trade weighted tariff is just 2.3%.

In 2013, the EU's trade weighted average MFN tariff was 2.3% for non-agricultural products. This is an average figure and tariffs on some individual products are much higher, especially on agricultural goods. The EU tariff on cars, for example, is 10%.28 Jun 2016

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-leaving-eu-trade/

Herzlos

setmefree2 wrote: »

Because the UK has a budget defict of less than 3% and Scotland has a budget deficit of 10% (it's bankrupt without England)

Scotland also has limited powers to actually do anything about it, and IIRC oil tax revenue is counted against England?

Herzlos

mrginge wrote: »

So in summary, you are moaning because despite us not having left the eu yet, all the bad stuff is happening because of brexit. And at the same time you are moaning because there is no good stuff that should have started despite us not having left the eu yet.

Thanks.

I'm just curious as to when the good stuff Conrad keeps promising is going to start happening. Is it only after we've left we'll suddenly start developing new industry?