If we vote for Brexit what happens

CKhalvashi

Is that balanced enough?
At this moment in time then, we could reasonably expect the Tories to gain anywhere between a few hundred seats and "a small increase".
Not "Just so that this is on record, I'm predicting a hung Parliament with major Con losses in the SW, and some gains in the North." as you said.

Hang on a minute, actually to an extent we both agree on the Conservatives gaining seats from Labour somewhere in this election, and it could be anywhere from a few to over 100.

What that report won't tell you is how many votes will go where, and how much tactical voting there will be in key marginal areas.

This is where we're not seeing eye to eye on this.

A poll of around 1000 people can provide vastly different results depending on who was called (indeed 2 results showing a Con majority of anywhere between 20 and 120 on the same day proves that), in fact it's little over 1 person for each constituency. This is again using a national swingometer and here for arguments sake.

We have no breakdown for where those people live, and therefore we don't know how evenly spread the polling was. We also don't know the past voting history of those people.

There is one area that I do agree with the polls on; whatever happens, the Cons are likely to gain a larger share of the vote, making some gains from Labour. In reality though, I'm not sure how that will translate into an increase of seats.

I have been wrong before, but so were a number of 'experts'. Indeed in the 2015 election I believe that my prediction was wrong based on a few Labour seats and about 10 LD seats out, however I was nowhere near as wrong as I could have been, and again the error was caused by trying to break things down on a seat by seat level.

I may be wrong here too, but I refuse to accept that in the current circumstances a national swingometer is going to be anywhere near right, even though it may give a few marginal pointers.

wotsthat

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

First response in red above.

Nice bit of research. So for a good estimate of growth you take the IMF estimate and add a bit? Could be a Nobel prize with your name on it.

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Who's upset?
Not me, sorry to disappoint.
Although if you continue avoiding direct answers to direct questions I may become so.

Who cares?

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

If it's not personal as you suggest, why did you not answer:
"show us where you doubt that those posts answer the question?"
Any post you have made grumbling about relevance to the thread will do.

Because it's a dull question and I don't care if you've taken it personally or not. Who gives a fig?

I've already said I think most of the posts are off-topic. Some of it is pages of pure spam. i.e. the long cut and paste irrelevant Europe news which stifle conversation.

davomcdave

prosaver wrote: »

my friend used to go the gym and had gym membership.
Now hes bought his own gym business and doing quite well and he doesn't have to pay membership fees and make his own rules up.
:beer:

now do this..

It's funny, I could probably do that for many years of my life and never realised it was a thing. Now I can't do it it's impressive.

Them's the breaks.

vivatifosi

prosaver wrote: »

thats weird the pound went really low then bounced back after the announcement of the Snap general election

I do think that the general election has something to do with it,but equally Trump has been saying that the dollar is overvalued.


https://www.ft.com/content/d24b7283-ece9-3348-b50c-a5339a8e916d

kabayiri

davomcdave wrote: »

It's funny, I could probably do that for many years of my life and never realised it was a thing. Now I can't do it it's impressive.

Them's the breaks.

Ahh, but the real question is how good do you look in a short yellow top and skin tight leggings?

(I think I need a cold shower now ... after seeing that clip)

A_Medium_Size_Jock

CKhalvashi wrote: »

I may be wrong here too, but I refuse to accept that in the current circumstances a national swingometer is going to be anywhere near right, even though it may give a few marginal pointers.

There too then we can agree.
Short of as-yet unknown magical powers, there is absolutely no way anyone can second-guess an outcome with certainty - least of all with this election.
Although at this stage it would need a major upset for the Tories not to make gains.
How significant these gains will be remains to be seen, as I posted in another thread.

Since many will not vote Labour and would not ever vote Tory, is it remotely possible that LibDem could gain significantly?
I find that unlikely given the leadership (who is he again?) frequently appearing to be ............. shall we agree upon "a brick short"?
As for a Green, Labour LibDem alliance - well let's be honest, there would need to be significant change in stances all round and sharpish too for that to be a prospect worthy of consideration..


So perhaps the likeliest outcome will be a low turnout - amongst traditional Labour voters at least, and hence lead to increases in Tory seats.
Just how considerable these increases may turn out to be is of course the million-dollar question.

davomcdave

kabayiri wrote: »

Ahh, but the real question is how good do you look in a short yellow top and skin tight leggings?

(I think I need a cold shower now ... after seeing that clip)

I didn't know you'd seen me in a yellow top & al. Lucky you.

Thrugelmir

vivatifosi wrote: »

I do think that the general election has something to do with it,but equally Trump has been saying that the dollar is overvalued.

The US is ahead of the global curve and current Fed policy if continued, will have the impact of increasing interest rates on $ denominated debt.

CKhalvashi

Any Remain voters may want to take a look at this:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_yf4RL133fBKscvSbID4eRKwztzY9KSI_2BMaI1bU8/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true

Not going into the accuracy of it, and it's not my work.

BobQ

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

The eu read the papers. They would have seen all the threats, labour saying they would not vote for anything they didn't like from the eu, snp saying they will block the Great Repeal Bill etc, not exactly a show of unity, more a show of the desire to wreck Brexit.

She needs to show she has Westminster behind her to give her a strong hand in the eu, she needs them to believe that what she says goes.

Currently all the infighting in the House is not exactly making the eu think she has a strong hand for negotiations.

An argument used by dictators down the generations.......