If we vote for Brexit what happens

TrickyTree83

padington wrote: »

You should place a bet on a soft Brexit now then, bar the transitional stage, I personally wouldn't touch that bet with a barge pole. Popular liberal Canada got that deal on the skin of their teath. Our people (farage etc) have been making idiots of themselves in the EU, for years and are hated.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28113979

I wouldn't dispute the idiocy of our involvement with the EU. Had we been more insistent and broken more rules and attempted to change its direction it probably wouldn't be in the situation is it today. They took the single market, ran with it and ruined it. Like a joy rider nicking your dream motor. Trade should have always been the focus of the EU.

I don't think it'll be soft or hard Brexit, not only do I not subscribe to those terms I don't believe what they stand for will come to pass either. It'll be a bilateral trade deal which is mutually beneficial, because it has to be unless both parties want another crisis on their hands. Not forgetting that not only are the EU 27 intertwined, but the UK is too, we are interdependent economies and that has to continue for there to be stability and continued growth.

padington

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I wouldn't dispute the idiocy of our involvement with the EU. Had we been more insistent and broken more rules and attempted to change its direction it probably wouldn't be in the situation is it today. They took the single market, ran with it and ruined it. Like a joy rider nicking your dream motor. Trade should have always been the focus of the EU.

I don't think it'll be soft or hard Brexit, not only do I not subscribe to those terms I don't believe what they stand for will come to pass either. It'll be a bilateral trade deal which is mutually beneficial, because it has to be unless both parties want another crisis on their hands. Not forgetting that not only are the EU 27 intertwined, but the UK is too, we are interdependent economies and that has to continue for there to be stability and continued growth.

No you're wrong, the UK must be seen to prosper less well when it leaves the EU so the EU doesnt offer an incentive for its own break up. Failing to understand that fails to understand the unique idiotic situation we have got ourselves in.

mrginge

padington wrote: »

No you're wrong, the UK must be seen to prosper less well when it leaves the EU so the EU doesnt offer an incentive for its own break up. Failing to understand that fails to understand the unique idiotic situation we have got ourselves in.

Isn't it a shame that political ideology stands in the way of mutual economic benefit.

kabayiri

padington wrote: »

No you're wrong, the UK must be seen to prosper less well when it leaves the EU so the EU doesnt offer an incentive for its own break up. Failing to understand that fails to understand the unique idiotic situation we have got ourselves in.

Let's look at what we do know.

We have the first country trying to leave the Union, and a process called A50 which was invented by politicians and completely untested.

Now, when was the last time you trusted politicians to invent anything that would run smoothly first time ?

It will take an enormous effort to maintain a positive front to the EU and UK public, whilst all the squabbling runs up to the deadline. They should get Thorntons in, the amount of fudge required will be huge.

The UK leaving won't be the determinant of the EU breaking up. Other more pressing matters will. The Euro issues have not gone away. The reallocation of refugees will just cause increasing friction, particularly amongst the Eastern members.

kabayiri

mrginge wrote: »

Isn't it a shame that political ideology stands in the way of mutual economic benefit.

I think the major global corporations have worked this out already.

They may just lean on the politicians a bit.

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Iis talking about how Germans are already moving on from Brexit and the EU/World doesn't revolve round it like it does for Brits.

750,000 jobs in Germany directly depend on UK exports. Not wise to be so dismissive. Brexit is going to change the landscape.

TrickyTree83

padington wrote: »

No you're wrong, the UK must be seen to prosper less well when it leaves the EU so the EU doesnt offer an incentive for its own break up. Failing to understand that fails to understand the unique idiotic situation we have got ourselves in.

Then the EU is in a catch 22. Whereas we'll have the ability to re-orient ourselves.

The EU cannot have it both ways, they cannot punish us and get away with it without repercussion and according to yourself (although I disagree) they cannot agree a mutually beneficial deal for fear of encouraging others.

The reason I disagree is because one is within their control and is looked upon as reasonable, the other is disintegration by their own design.

padington

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Then the EU is in a catch 22. Whereas we'll have the ability to re-orient ourselves.

The EU cannot have it both ways, they cannot punish us and get away with it without repercussion and according to yourself (although I disagree) they cannot agree a mutually beneficial deal for fear of encouraging others.

The reason I disagree is because one is within their control and is looked upon as reasonable, the other is disintegration by their own design.

The only way is Essex. If the bulldog breed get what they want. Full hard Brexit is inevitable eventually and for that we will end up with a worse European trading deal than any of the G20 and a host of major problems.

If you think the Brexit future for the next 20 years is going to be milk and honey you are so, so, so wrong.

It might be a wise idea in the long term, who knows but in the foreseeable a hard brexit will be a disaster. Legally, diplomatically, and economically - a complete disaster.

So thinks the PM when she spoke candidly before Brexit about losing business and so does every other living prime minister that I can think of as well as this chancellor and the last one.

But don't worry, trickytree83 says it will all be OK.

padington

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Then the EU is in a catch 22. Whereas we'll have the ability to re-orient ourselves.

The EU cannot have it both ways, they cannot punish us and get away with it without repercussion and according to yourself (although I disagree) they cannot agree a mutually beneficial deal for fear of encouraging others.

The reason I disagree is because one is within their control and is looked upon as reasonable, the other is disintegration by their own design.

No we're in a catch 22. Brexit has to happen because of the referendum but it will ensure we lose a heap jobs, cause big problems in Ireland and maybe the rock , raise the cost of living, sap all our top level energy, lose the good international feel
good factor for U.K. plc, possibly cause a legal nightmare, lose a ton of tax take, and to top it all we will most probably re-join sooner rather than later anyway.

That's the catch 22.

TrickyTree83

padington wrote: »

The only way is Essex. If the bulldog breed get what they want. Full hard Brexit is inevitable eventually and for that we will end up with a worse European trading deal than any of the G20 and a host of major problems.

If you think the Brexit future for the next 20 years is going to be milk and honey you are so, so, so wrong.

It might be a wise idea in the long term, who knows but in the foreseeable a hard brexit will be a disaster. Legally, diplomatically, and economically - a complete disaster.

So thinks the PM when she spoke candidly before Brexit about losing business and so does every other living prime minister that I can think of as well as this chancellor and the last one.

But don't worry, trickytree83 says it will all be OK.

You can't predict the future no less the terms of the deal. All I've been referring to are the pressures affecting the negotiations that lead me to believe a mutually beneficial deal is a must.

You've simply referred to a couple of speeches where Junker (who has u-turned since), Verhofstadt (who has also u-turned) and Hollande (who is on his way out 100% certain) said we should be punished. Where is the smart money based on the available evidence, not feelings, evidence.