If we vote for Brexit what happens

A_Medium_Size_Jock

I see that - kinda following on from my earlier post re: the EU suggesting Ireland modernises its abortion laws - the Irish now bemoan decreasing Christianity within the EU:

It’s official: Europe is becoming less Christian.
An international study of demographic trends shows that Europe’s Christian population is expected to shrink by about 100 million people in the coming decades, dropping from 553 million in 2010 to 454 million in 2050.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/religion-and-beliefs/europe-s-christian-population-falls-amid-rise-of-atheists-and-muslims-1.3039114

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Hmmmmm

http://www.politico.eu/article/germany-brexit-reaction-so-what-berlin-indifferent-to-london/

It's May in retreat and softening red lines at the moment I'd say.

*pats mayonnaise on the back on my way to the Scotland threads.

How does soundbite from a German diplomat reconcile with quotes from German business institutes and business people? They say the opposite. Looks more like the German politicos are trying to save face rather than admit the truth. They try that often over there.

wotsthat

Conrad wrote: »

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I was going by this in The Independent today – I should have checked elsewhere as you are right in saying this is not new;

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/cadbury-modelez-shrinkflation-uk-consumers-warn-price-rises-chocolate-snacks-retail-a7671981.html

Separately on Friday, Mondelez announced that it had invested £75m in four new production lines at the iconic Bournville factory in Birmingham.

“This £75m investment we’ve made means our Bournville factory can now favourably compete against manufacturing facilities in other European markets and retain the majority of Cadbury Dairy Milk and Cadbury chocolate production right here in the UK,” Mr Caton said in separate press release

Seems very clear the investment was in the past tense.

Businesses are like politicians. If you've got good news and a willing media then you may as well announce the same thing four times.

From January 2014...

http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/cadbury-owners-mondelez-invest-75m-6555241

I'm more interested in new investment (or not) ongoing rather than investment that follows costs that have already been sunk. i.e. if Toyota announce a £xm investment in a plant where they've already sunk £xbn that's great; if they announce they're building a new factory that's better.

Andy_L

davomcdave wrote: »

You just need to think about it for a second. If there is all these Indian investment into the UK, where are all the Indian factories?

Well there's all those Tata steel plants.....

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Andy_L wrote: »

Well there's all those Tata steel plants.....

Jaguar Landrover too.



Although Germans are still willing to welcome refugees, it seems that most thing their country "has reached its limit":

But, despite the fact that a majority of Germans said refugees are welcome in their country, a majority also felt the country had reached its limit in terms of taking in more asylum seekers.

https://www.thelocal.de/20170407/over-half-of-germans-say-the-country-has-reached-its-limit-on-refugees

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

How does soundbite from a German diplomat reconcile with quotes from German business institutes and business people? They say the opposite. Looks more like the German politicos are trying to save face rather than admit the truth. They try that often over there.

It's May softening her stance, not the other way round. There's article after article on this thread talking about things 'appearing' this way or that way.

Either you're going to end up with a fudge with the UK in the EEA ( everything pretty much the same as now but without a say, FOM and still handing over the cash ) for the next five plus years or May is going to have to walk. And it wasn't just a quote from a German diplomat, that was the only bit I quoted. The full article is at the link provided and is talking about how Germans are already moving on from Brexit and the EU/World doesn't revolve round it like it does for Brits.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

It's May softening her stance, not the other way round. There's article after article on this thread talking about things 'appearing' this way or that way.

Either you're going to end up with a fudge with the UK in the EEA ( everything pretty much the same as now but without a say, FOM and still handing over the cash ) for the next five plus years or May is going to have to walk. And it wasn't just a quote from a German diplomat, that was the only bit I quoted. The full article is at the link provided and is talking about how Germans are already moving on from Brexit and the EU/World doesn't revolve round it like it does for Brits.

I completely disagree.

I see no softening of stance from the UK, plenty of noise from business on both sides about the need to continue much as we have done and some, the minority, of the politicians on the continent saying we should be punished/will suffer/will not get a deal that works/<insert whatever>.

I don't think they're 'moving on from Brexit' as you say either. Brexit is a huge issue they need to address. It's a similar argument to that of the EU only exporting 7% to the UK, when you actually look at the data, I have and I've shared it here, it's quite clear what has to happen.

Simply a mutually beneficial trade deal has to happen. It's an absolute must for both sides, it would be politically poisonous for the EU to penalise the UK as this will affect people on the ground in the EU at a time when anti-EU sentiment has never been higher, they risk the entire project by lumping yet more misery on their citizens for the sake of political point scoring.

They have a wire to walk - not us. I understand why you don't share this view. You appear to paint rosy pictures in your minds eye of anything that aligns with your dream of an independent Scotland. The UK is always bad, untrustworthy, evil, malevolent, they hate their citizens and harm them as much as they can. Whilst the EU are pious, good, genuine, honest, probably the most virtuous politicians on the planet. In that context how can anyone expect you to see the reality of the situation? You don't for Scotland and I don't think you do for the UK or the EU either.

padington

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I completely disagree.

I see no softening of stance from the UK, plenty of noise from business on both sides about the need to continue much as we have done and some, the minority, of the politicians on the continent saying we should be punished/will suffer/will not get a deal that works/<insert whatever>.

I don't think they're 'moving on from Brexit' as you say either. Brexit is a huge issue they need to address. It's a similar argument to that of the EU only exporting 7% to the UK, when you actually look at the data, I have and I've shared it here, it's quite clear what has to happen.

Simply a mutually beneficial trade deal has to happen. It's an absolute must for both sides, it would be politically poisonous for the EU to penalise the UK as this will affect people on the ground in the EU at a time when anti-EU sentiment has never been higher, they risk the entire project by lumping yet more misery on their citizens for the sake of political point scoring.

They have a wire to walk - not us. I understand why you don't share this view. You appear to paint rosy pictures in your minds eye of anything that aligns with your dream of an independent Scotland. The UK is always bad, untrustworthy, evil, malevolent, they hate their citizens and harm them as much as they can. Whilst the EU are pious, good, genuine, honest, probably the most virtuous politicians on the planet. In that context how can anyone expect you to see the reality of the situation? You don't for Scotland and I don't think you do for the UK or the EU either.

You are right, that counter pressure does exist but the problem for us is we need all countries to agree. If only one says no deal, it's off. What do you think are the chances Putin won't make one country a sweet deal to begin the very real possibility of the union breaking up acrimoniously as he would very much like to see? Or Spain or France find it politically expedient to kick sand in our face?

Alternatively do you think we will really be able police quality cheap prosecco being sent here from Italy. We've been sneaking Chinese goods into Europe for years under the radar.

Having the 'upper hand' in that we want their goods because they sell better and cheaper stuff than we can get anywhere else, isn't always a good place to be.

We can't remove a copious cornucopia of drugs in our prison system, what chance have we got in the free world?

TrickyTree83

padington wrote: »

You are right, that counter pressure does exist but the problem for us is we need all countries to agree. If only one says no deal, it's off. What do you think are the chance Putin won't make one country a sweet deal to begin the very real possibility of the union breaking up acrimoniously as he would very much like to see? Or Spain or France find it politically expedient to kick sand in our face?

I've covered that before, again it's related to the argument that only 7% of EU exports come to the UK.

The concentration of those exports are in the net contributor countries. They would rather avoid job losses and recessions, loss of GDP, etc...

The countries who are net beneficiaries may do very little trade with us, more with these other countries, but do rely on the EU's spending commitments to invest in their economy.

Loosely - the EU's budget is determined by GDP, if the GDP of the net contributor countries falls and they end up paying less (incl. minus the UK's contributions) then the beneficiaries are going to lose out from the EU budget.

It's all intertwined. They cannot escape it unless they leave the EU also. It may take one country to say no, but there will be far more countries who say "we must". It'll be Wallonia all over again I think, there will be some politician somewhere who wants to score points, get in the papers, cause a problem. But ultimately they'll be told this needs to happen else this is the consequence. It goes far deeper, down to the citizens of each member state blaming those negotiating on their behalf that a suitable deal was not found or insisted upon. It has the potential to destroy the EU from within more than giving the UK a sweetheart deal and others being jealous.

padington

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I've covered that before, again it's related to the argument that only 7% of EU exports come to the UK.

The concentration of those exports are in the net contributor countries. They would rather avoid job losses and recessions, loss of GDP, etc...

The countries who are net beneficiaries may do very little trade with us, more with these other countries, but do rely on the EU's spending commitments to invest in their economy.

Loosely - the EU's budget is determined by GDP, if the GDP of the net contributor countries falls and they end up paying less (incl. minus the UK's contributions) then the beneficiaries are going to lose out from the EU budget.

It's all intertwined. They cannot escape it unless they leave the EU also. It may take one country to say no, but there will be far more countries who say "we must". It'll be Wallonia all over again I think, there will be some politician somewhere who wants to score points, get in the papers, cause a problem. But ultimately they'll be told this needs to happen else this is the consequence. It goes far deeper, down to the citizens of each member state blaming those negotiating on their behalf that a suitable deal was not found or insisted upon. It has the potential to destroy the EU from within more than giving the UK a sweetheart deal and others being jealous.

You should place a bet on a soft Brexit now then, bar the transitional stage, I personally wouldn't touch that bet with a barge pole. Popular liberal Canada got that deal on the skin of their teath. Our people (farage etc) have been making idiots of themselves in the EU, for years and are hated.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28113979