If we vote for Brexit what happens

Filo25

Moby wrote: »

Confirmation bias. People see what their prejudices encourage them to see!

I think we're all very guilty of that.

We tend to choose to read newspapers that broadly tell us what we already believe, and we tend to provide too much credence to anything which conforms to our worldview and are all too inclined to ignore things which don't.

CKhalvashi

setmefree2 wrote: »

The South East is really paying the price now. The rail network can't cope, house prices are ludicrous, pollution is awful....

Yes, of course, I was sat on an almost empty airport express train last night heading into London as all these people headed into the city to start work today.

I take the point that commuter services aren't brilliant, however that's due to years of underinvestment in the rail network over anything else. We are apparently getting some new trains with 1 new carriage each (5 instead of 4 per set), however it doesn't solve the fact that someone working at my local station says she only saw a 12 car set when they were testing the lengthened platform, and never since.

Maybe the money would have been better spent on extra trains instead, but such is life.

kabayiri

Filo25 wrote: »

I think we're all very guilty of that.

We tend to choose to read newspapers that broadly tell us what we already believe, and we tend to provide too much credence to anything which conforms to our worldview and are all too inclined to ignore things which don't.

Agreed.

Plus, perhaps technology does not help here.

We are each our own editorial department too.

We can compile the newsfeed bookmarks we like; we can link to the YouTube channels which confirm our bias.

YouTube even offers up material automatically which it think matches our preferences !

This might be great if you are in the market for a new washing machine, but less so if you are in the market for a new political future!

Tromking

Go figure!

https://www.rt.com/business/383198-central-banks-euro-pound/

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

http://www.politico.eu/article/eu-sketches-out-interim-uk-trade-deal-that-hits-services-hard/

Leaked/mentioned trade deal would include tariff free trade on goods in both directions, some UK car exports may fail origin checks as not containing enough British made components, and we can't just act as a gateway to tariff free access to Europe. Services not mentioned as part of the agreement, beyond wanting UK airlines and banks to have significant EU presence in order to operate.

As said today by Theresa May's representative:

"These are draft guidelines that were issued ... We will wait and see what is agreed by the 27 (EU countries), " the spokesman told reporters.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-gibraltar-may-idUKKBN17514F

CKhalvashi

kabayiri wrote: »

Agreed.

Plus, perhaps technology does not help here.

We are each our own editorial department too.

We can compile the newsfeed bookmarks we like; we can link to the YouTube channels which confirm our bias.

YouTube even offers up material automatically which it think matches our preferences !

This might be great if you are in the market for a new washing machine, but less so if you are in the market for a new political future!

Many things show us adverts with what we've looked at in the past, as it's more profitable for them to show us adverts that will probably interest us than show us those that are blanketed, because the RPM for them (how marketing is priced, basically price charged per 1000 impressions for anyone that doesn't know) is higher in this situation, which is the case because the results are more effective (Unless you bought a lawnmower last week and it's showing you lawnmowers, as happened to me a few years ago, as it's a more long term decision).

In fact, clicking on a Georgian video I watched a few weeks ago (as it's the first on the 'watch again' on YT, this one for transparancy), the 'recommended videos' are largely music videos from a company I've viewed/subscribed to, Russell Howard, an old episode of The Bill (I will admit to watching 2 on the train yesterday evening), and something from a British comedian in the US (John Oliver, for anyone interested), with some assorted similar stuff to the video I've just clicked on.

The issue with this to an extent is that it soothes what we can want to hear, without actually giving us the full, unedited picture. This works both ways.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

So some Scots seek independence; fortunately not enough agree.

In Spain, Catalonians seek independence.
Do they stand a better chance .......... and is that perhaps why Alfonso Dastis, their Foreign Minister, seems to change his mind with the wind and is this also perhaps one reason for Spain & the EU's Gibraltar debacle?
___________________________________________________

Then there is France ....... with an upcoming election that let's be honest is difficult to call.
More-so given recent events; Trump or Brexit, anyone?

But what about their overseas territories?
Fillon and Macron campaigned recently on Reunion, pop. 843,647 (2015).
But what of French Guiana - a French State and officially part of the EU with the Euro as its currency?
Yet it borders Brazil and Suriname in the South Americas.

With a population of around 250,000 it is currently in the grip of record unemployment and high crime, yet has comparatively high living costs - mainly thanks to the EU;

The reliance on imports from Europe means food prices are particularly onerous. In one of the great paradoxes of life in the French enclave, cheaper products from neighbouring Brazil and Suriname are subjected to the crippling tariffs applied across the European Union, and thus largely inaccessible. Vergès describes this as a “theatre of the absurd with no end in sight”.

http://www.france24.com/en/20170331-french-guiana-social-unrest-history-penal-colony-ariane-south-america-france

The result?
Ten days of strikes and protests so far, together with demands for aid from France.
Who offer just over a billion Euros whilst French Guianians are demanding 2.5 billion.
And immediately as opposed to France's offer of over ten years.

French Guiana immediately described the proposals as "unsatisfactory", and the collective behind the strikes called for a "special status" for the territory in talks with Bareigts.
"With another system, we could decide for ourselves what is good for us" rather than "asking permission for everything" from France, collective member Davy Rimane told AFP.

http://www.france24.com/en/20170403-french-guiana-protests-aid-package-space-centre-south-america-france

I

Arklight

Conrad wrote: »

With 'progressives' in charge of so many spheres of public life, such things are indeed impossible to fix.


My hope is the public become ever more aware of the damage wrought in the name of 'progressive' sensibility, and demand change.


We could deter mass immigration quite easily given the right resolve and a common sense approach without whining hand wringers dumbing everything down.

Do you think immigration will fall after Brexit? Even the Tories are warning not expect a fall in migrants. Theresa May was uninterested in reducing migrant numbers when she was Home Secretary, and beyond soundbites - doesn't appear to have any fresh ideas now.

There is no will in the establishment to curtail the movement of low wage labour, because it depresses wages.

Thrugelmir

Arklight wrote: »

Do you think immigration will fall after Brexit? Even the Tories are warning not expect a fall in migrants. Theresa May was uninterested in reducing migrant numbers when she was Home Secretary, and beyond soundbites - doesn't appear to have any fresh ideas now.

There is no will in the establishment to curtail the movement of low wage labour, because it depresses wages.

Controlled immigration similar to an Oz system perhaps.

Look at the global picture. Plenty of unskilled labour willing to work for less money. As they want the quality of living the West enjoys. Economic migration isn't going to stop anytime soon either. Resulting in no shortage of supply. Minimum wage along with compulsory employer pension contributions is the only way of keeping matters in check for those at the bottom of the rung.

Arklight

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Controlled immigration similar to an Oz system perhaps.

Look at the global picture. Plenty of unskilled labour willing to work for less money. As they want the quality of living the West enjoys. Economic migration isn't going to stop anytime soon either. Resulting in no shortage of supply. Minimum wage along with compulsory employer pension contributions is the only way of keeping matters in check for those at the bottom of the rung.

I have no problem with controlling immigration. Many on the Brexit side however seem to be very confused as to the difference between the legal migration of low skilled workers from Eastern Europe, and illegal immigration.

Illegal immigrants have no residence status, can't claim welfare benefits or housing, or get an NI number. They are almost certainly not European citizens, nor are they asylum seekers. Their numbers are only ever going to be a best guess and Brexit will make no difference to them.