If we vote for Brexit what happens

A_Medium_Size_Jock

I see that Junckers is moderating his tone; have other Eurocrats been having a quiet word in his shell-like?

"I am anything but in a hostile mood when it comes to Britain. We will negotiate in a friendly way, a fair way, and we are not naive."

Reported widely.

Still talks of UK commitments; I wonder when we will see acknowledgement of the reverse - what the EU owes the UK?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

I see that the UK are determining Polish support for our Brexit stance:

Daniel Kawczynski, a British Conservative MP who was born in Poland, held talks with the Polish delegation and said Warsaw wanted British military support, including for a new permanent Nato base east of the Polish capital.

and:

“They are reaching out to us,” he said. “When we leave, they know they are going to become the bad boy of the EU. They want to have very strong relations with Britain post-Brexit.”

https://www.ft.com/content/9fa6a286-0fed-11e7-b030-768954394623

A_Medium_Size_Jock

That follows signs of Dutch support posted a few days ago but mentioned again here and expanded-upon:

Another report, by the Dutch Advisory Council on International Affairs, is also quite friendly to the British. The report carries some weight, not only because the Council is chaired by former NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, but also because the Dutch government is legally obliged to issue a response to it.

http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/netherlands-just-issued-two-friendly-reports-brexit/

Arklight

Conrad wrote: »

I would say the same if it were an anti EU or an EDL large scale march. Yes we should carry on with sporting events etc though.


You're right I am one eyed on Brexit, I am absolutely sure both us and the core European exporters to us will act in an adult manner. No Govt will seek to harm its own citizens and trade.
We will adapt to the modest inconveniences thrown up.


I just ordered a DSI Rev 2, a new American synth over the net. Nothing could have been more simple. The USA is of course not in the SM nor has a trade deal with the EU. According to your sides narrative this should have been a difficult endeavour, where it will be stuck in a port for months on end, with mountains of documentation making this transaction very difficult. Ooooh nooo the end is nigh

I deal with the EU for my job (travel) and Brexit is a massive ball ache for everyone. None of us on either side want it, it is already having a detrimental effect on the level and nature of our business and the Europeans are coming out of it much better than we are because they are quite simply cancelling their plans to come here and going to other EU countries.

Glib comments such as yours give me no faith that Brexicists have any understanding of what is happening, or are that you are going to be of any help whatsoever in overcoming the maelstrom of problems you are causing.

My friend owns a hotel and they facing closure because they are empty. None of the late winter construction workers came as so many projects have been cancelled.

They are now looking at an empty booking sheet for the Spring because the European tourists have all cried off. They have been full every year for a decade until all this.

People are losing their livelihoods over this mess.

I hope you enjoy your synth. With a tourist rate if about $1.15 to the £, import duty and VAT to pay on it's way to the UK - there is no point on recent history where you could have lost more money on it.

Guess you better get used to it though because in 2 years time it will cost just as much to import things from the EU.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

At CityAM an interesting report on the value of the GB£ and why it remains a solid prospect for appreciation:

Traditional macroeconomic drivers for the British pound, such as global growth, housing and the employment outlook, remain solid; however such drivers have been largely ignored since the Brexit vote. This vacuum has been filled by a political risk premium, which has kept the British pound at suppressed levels.

The British pound remains a global trade currency, and therefore upward revisions in global growth will add upside pressure on sterling appreciation. A continuation of the resilience of the British consumer, UK domestic economic strength, together with external global growth pressures are all setting the scene for an upside surprise in the British pound.

http://www.cityam.com/261597/sterling-surprise-pound-ride-out-brexit-return-its-safe

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Arklight wrote: »

I deal with the EU for my job (travel) and Brexit is a massive ball ache for everyone. None of us on either side want it, it is already having a detrimental effect on the level and nature of our business and the Europeans are coming out of it much better than we are because they are quite simply cancelling their plans to come here and going to other EU countries.

Glib comments such as yours give me no faith that Brexicists have any understanding of what is happening, or are that you are going to be of any help whatsoever in overcoming the maelstrom of problems you are causing.

My friend owns a hotel and they facing closure because they are empty. None of the late winter construction workers came as so many projects have been cancelled.

They are now looking at an empty booking sheet for the Spring because the European tourists have all cried off. They have been full every year for a decade until all this.

People are losing their livelihoods over this mess.

I hope you enjoy your synth. With a tourist rate if about $1.15 to the £, import duty and VAT to pay on it's way to the UK - there is no point on recent history where you could have lost more money on it.

Guess you better get used to it though because in 2 years time it will cost just as much to import things from the EU.

Your anecdotal evidence does not tally with mine.

I live in an area of high tourism and friends involved in the industry here say they are busier than than have ever been with forward bookings (mostly from outside the UK) and in fact are telling me that they are booked solid for lengthy periods.
Which ties in pretty well with official reports on tourism to the UK, BTW; for January 2017 an increase of 11% compared to last year.
Spending more too.
These official figures are more reliable than any anecdotal, yours or mine.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/tourismindustry

Conrad

Arklight wrote: »

I deal with the EU for my job (travel) and Brexit is a massive ball ache for everyone. None of us on either side want it, it is already having a detrimental effect on the level and nature of our business and the Europeans are coming out of it much better than we are because they are quite simply cancelling their plans to come here and going to other EU countries.




The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics, released on Friday, show that in January 2017, 2.9 million overseas residents made some sort of trip to Britain, a rise of roughly 300,000 people from the same period in 2016. Foreign visitors also spent more money — in pounds — than they had in the same period last year.


"The number of visits to the UK by overseas residents in January 2017 was 2.9 million, an increase of 11% when compared with January 2016," an ONS release said.

Glib comments such as yours give me no faith that Brexicists have any understanding of what is happening, or are that you are going to be of any help whatsoever in overcoming the maelstrom of problems you are causing.

My friend owns a hotel and they facing closure because they are empty.


Your friend needs to do a better job, I deal in financing hotels and I assure you plenty are booming. Those that don't are typically poor at meeting guests expectations on things like food and cleanliness. Hospitality is notoriously difficult to get right. Failure rate has always been high.




None of the late winter construction workers came as so many projects have been cancelled.


How do prospering nations that do not have MASS immigration manage? How did we build prior to Blair opening the floodgates?


Why aren't UK building firms getting into schools early to get kids interested in future training placements? You know like we used to do before Blair?


They are now looking at an empty booking sheet for the Spring because the European tourists have all cried off.


Not what the UK Tourism industry is saying to the press.



People are losing their livelihoods over this mess.


In business change is a constant - I myself had to sharply adapt in 2008, so what.


The EU has been the lowest performing in terms of growth of any continent.
Unemployment is high in several EU nations.


LOOK WHAT BBC REPORTED YESTERDAY - EXACTLY WHAT BREXITEERS HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR 2 YEARS;




Over the past two decades, 14 economies- including Canada, India and the US - that trade under WTO rules increased their exports of goods to the 11 founding members of the single market faster than the UK, the study said.

"The evidence shows that the disadvantages of non-membership of the EU and single market have been vastly exaggerated and that the supposed benefits of membership, whether for exportso f goods and services, for productivity, for worldwide trade, or for employment, are largely imaginary," the study said.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39356664






I hope you enjoy your synth. With a tourist rate if about $1.15 to the £, import duty and VAT to pay on it's way to the UK - there is no point on recent history where you could have lost more money on it.


Mervyn King and many others say the UK trade imbalance has been our most urgent issue. With the pound at fair value we are at last starting to turn this mess around - we need more exports, less imports

Guess you better get used to it though because in 2 years time it will cost just as much to import things from the EU.


More nonsensical doom predictions, it's all hysterics, we will thrive, you have fallen for myths and nonsense.

My replies above in nice colours

CKhalvashi

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Your anecdotal evidence does not tally with mine.

I live in an area of high tourism and friends involved in the industry here say they are busier than than have ever been with forward bookings (mostly from outside the UK) and in fact are telling me that they are booked solid for lengthy periods.
Which ties in pretty well with official reports on tourism to the UK, BTW; for January 2017 an increase of 11% compared to last year.
Spending more too.
These official figures are more reliable than any anecdotal, yours or mine.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/tourismindustry

As a very rough guess (just asked my dad who works at an airport, and based purely on numbers of bags people are carrying rather than any science), who he'd consider to be tourists are up about 10% on this time last year, longer term stays are up too, number of both British and foreign people leaving for what looks like an extended period is also up quite significantly.

Number of business travellers (smartly dressed, smart bag/briefcase, early morning or late evening flights on weekdays), both in and out at the relevant times, perhaps unsurprisingly, also seem up.

His job doesn't involve asking people why they're visiting/leaving the UK at all, just to make that perfectly clear, however you can usually tell roughly what someones intentions are by how much they've got with them and what they're wearing, paired occasionally with what time they're coming or going.

I'd wage a bet on that airport being about to put a planning application in for a large expansion, so it's safe to say they're betting on the UK remaining in the Common Aviation Market, as a foreign airline is their biggest customer.

StevieJ

I agree it seems unlikely that tourist numbers are down, with the falling pound and inquisitive EU tourists getting a last look at the old lady before we shut the gates.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

StevieJ wrote: »

I agree it seems unlikely that tourist numbers are down, with the falling pound and inquisitive EU tourists getting a last look at the old lady before we shut the gates.

Do you mean before the old dear shuffles off the mortal coil, maybe?
She is getting on a bit after all.
And did we not have tourism before we entered the EU and opened these alleged gates that we are supposedly closing then?