If we vote for Brexit what happens

davomcdave

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Well if you will insist upon asking "how long is a bit of string" - type questions .......................

Of course if you're not simply being intentionally obtuse and your question is genuine, why have you not done as I suggested and posted a new thread with your questions.

Is it perhaps because you can already envisage that the response you may receive might not be what you expect?

It's not a 'how long is a piece of string' question. It's me asking why people think the Pound can be worth something other than what it's worth.

Right now a pound is worth $1.24. That's not over or undervalued it's just the price. I'm not the one that said that the price was wrong 8 months ago. I'm asking you why you think it's wrong and so far your answers have been that I'm a simpleton and go ask somewhere else.

The pound fell off a cliff on Brexit and has dropped further since. That has been celebrated by you and others as it means that the trade deficit will become smaller or even move into surplus. The problem you have is you don't understand the mechanism by which that happens.

Imports become more expensive so we can no longer afford to import as much. We buy less and our standard of living falls. Domestically produced items that we used to consume are sold abroad as we can't afford those as we are spending more of our incomes on vital imports (food, pharma, fuel). This is what you say you want. You claim to want the trade position to 'improve'. It's improving by your terms yet you don't seem to like it. Maybe you should reconsider your position re Brexit and join up with that nice Mr Blair.

Brexit means Brexit and at the moment that seems likely to mean about 7% sliced off living standards. Let's hope multinationals continue to invest in UK production because this could become quite uncomfortable.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

davomcdave wrote: »

It's not a 'how long is a piece of string' question. It's me asking why people think the Pound can be worth something other than what it's worth.

Right now a pound is worth $1.24. That's not over or undervalued it's just the price. I'm not the one that said that the price was wrong 8 months ago. I'm asking you why you think it's wrong and so far your answers have been that I'm a simpleton and go ask somewhere else.

The pound fell off a cliff on Brexit and has dropped further since. That has been celebrated by you and others as it means that the trade deficit will become smaller or even move into surplus. The problem you have is you don't understand the mechanism by which that happens.

Imports become more expensive so we can no longer afford to import as much. We buy less and our standard of living falls. Domestically produced items that we used to consume are sold abroad as we can't afford those as we are spending more of our incomes on vital imports (food, pharma, fuel). This is what you say you want. You claim to want the trade position to 'improve'. It's improving by your terms yet you don't seem to like it. Maybe you should reconsider your position re Brexit and join up with that nice Mr Blair.

Brexit means Brexit and at the moment that seems likely to mean about 7% sliced off living standards. Let's hope multinationals continue to invest in UK production because this could become quite uncomfortable.

Where is your new thread?

davomcdave

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Where is your new thread?

Why won't you answer the conversation you started?

If the Pound floats freely how can the price be wrong? It's a pretty simple question to examine your assertion. It's just that your assertion doesn't stand up to the most basic of logical scrutiny and now you're feeling a bit embarrassed but don't want to admit it.

Right now a pound is worth $1.24. That's not over or undervalued it's just the price. I'm not the one that said that the price was wrong 8 months ago. I'm asking you why you think it's wrong and so far your answers have been that I'm a simpleton and go ask somewhere else.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

*sigh*
I answered your question many posts ago.

For the second and final time I again provide a link which I originally posted here:
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=72125792&postcount=16650

Again:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-19/deutsche-bank-s-five-reasons-why-the-pound-is-overvalued
See that?
"Deutsche Bank's five reasons why the pound is overvalued".

Now if you still do not understand after reading that I can only say again: "why have you not done as I suggested and posted a new thread with your questions?"
Rather than clogging this thread.

Moby

cogito wrote: »

You can hang the debt on the Blair government. It was his chancellor who was in favour of the light touch regulation that gave the green light to the banks to engage in the reckless behaviour that meant that they had to be rescued. Read Alastair Darling's book, Back from the Brink if you want the inside story.

Re-writing history......They did have a far too light touch regulation and do you know why.....because they were scared of the opposition they would have received from the City and business interests. Also if you remember the tory opposition opposed the regulation that the govmt did impose!

You also forget that Blair promised the country a referendum on the EU when the EU constitution was negotiated. He backed off when referenda in other countries killed it. Then when it was renamed the Lisbon Treaty, he claimed that it wasn't a constitution so we didn't need a referendum.

Look where that referendum has got us now! We are going to be poorer and poorer as a country. Bargain basement pound shop Britain....foreign companies are queueing up for the fire sale! Great isn't it!.....but we've taken back control!

setmefree2

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Part of the problem lies in the fact that a debate on the future of the European Union resulted in more questions than answers this week. MEPs simply do not know what route the EU will take prior to the Brexit Horse bolting.


https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/0219/853704-ceta-eu-future/

I did sit through a lot of this debate - amazing how split they are - a lot want more integration, the rest want less....and a lot are just Eurosceptic (25%) so want none....

setmefree2

Moby wrote: »

Look where that referendum has got us now! We are going to be poorer and poorer as a country. Bargain basement pound shop Britain....foreign companies are queueing up for the fire sale! Great isn't it!.....but we've taken back control!

I know...terrible isn't it.

U.K. January Budget Surplus Highest Since 2000

Ruling Conservative Party likely to undershoot the borrowing target for the year

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-january-budget-surplus-highest-since-2000-1487672724

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39037698

Moby

setmefree2 wrote: »

I know...terrible isn't it.



https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-january-budget-surplus-highest-since-2000-1487672724

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39037698

It ain't started yet! Besides you voted to remain didn't you?

http://www.cer.org.uk/publications/archive/policy-brief/2017/%E2%82%AC60-billion-brexit-bill-how-disentangle-britain-eu-budget

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/feb/20/no-deal-brexit-would-mean-6bn-in-extra-costs-for-uk-exporters

setmefree2

Moby wrote: »

Blair's analysis of the referendum decision was spot on. That's why I listen to him!

Really????

Here is Tony Blair's Speech

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/full-transcript-tony-blairs-brexit-speech/

If our Government were conducting a negotiation which genuinely sought to advance our country’s interests, that negotiation would include the possibility of Britain staying in a reformed Europe. It is clear the sentiment which led to Brexit is not confined to the UK. There is a widespread yearning for reform across Europe. Part of our work should be to help build Europe wide alliances to give voice and effect to such an impulse.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:Dream on Tony.

He doesn't actually think we should stay in the EU the way it is. He thinks we should stay in a reformed EU.... he actually thinks we should spend our time knocking our heads against a brick wall trying to reform the EU.



To be honest I think it will probably be more fruitful to carve ourselves a new destiny.

cogito

Moby wrote: »

cogito wrote: »

Re-writing history......They did have a far too light touch regulation and do you know why.....because they were scared of the opposition they would have received from the City and business interests. Also if you remember the tory opposition opposed the regulation that the govmt did impose!
Look where that referendum has got us now! We are going to be poorer and poorer as a country. Bargain basement pound shop Britain....foreign companies are queueing up for the fire sale! Great isn't it!.....but we've taken back control!

Sorry but that isn't what happened at all. You're the one rewriting history. The problem was that Brown had created a situation in which responsibility for regulating the banks was removed from the BoE who knew what they were doing and handed to the FSA who didn't have a clue what the banks were actually doing and failed to understand the risks that they were taking. Of course, Brown loved the taxes he was raking in from the banks and turned a blind eye (sorry, I've just realised what I wrote there) to the failures of the system which Mervyn King complained about frequently.

Your final paragraph doesn't deserve comment.