If we vote for Brexit what happens

mystic_trev

davomcdave wrote: »

Do you think it will necessarily remain as Lloyds of London forever or perhaps move on to be simply Lloyds?

It'll probably remain Lloyds of London in name.It's a totally different beast from when I left, over 20 years ago. I had no desire to 'climb the greasy pole' any further. Retired at 42 and went travelling. Never looked back.

setmefree2

davomcdave wrote: »

If the EU fragments then it is no longer a given that Deutsche, BNP and UBS will have a big presence in London let alone the US banks.

If the EU fragments :eek:

the total exposure of French banks to Italian debt exceeds €250 billion. That’s triple the amount of exposure of the second most exposed European nation, Germany, whose banks hold €83.2 billion worth of Italian bonds. Deutsche bank alone has over €11.76 billion worth of Italian bonds on its books. The other banking sectors most at risk of contagion are Spain (€44.6 billion), the U.S. (€42.3 billion) the UK (€29.77 billion) and Japan (€27.6 billion).

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/07/10/contagion-from-italian-banking-meltdown-apart-french-german-banks/

setmefree2

In today's news - the EU parliament is to vote on CETA....

setmefree2

In today's news -

UK wage growth outpaces inflation

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) data also indicated the jobless rate held steady at an 11-year low of 4.8% during the period.
UK unemployment fell by 7,000 to 1.6 million people, it said.

There was a small rise in the number of workers born outside the European Union, but a small drop in the number of workers born in other EU countries.
Mr Freeman said those figures "should be treated with caution", however, because they were not adjusted for seasonal changes.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38979582

setmefree2

It would seem March the 8th is off the table.

David Davis: Lords 'ping pong' likely to delay triggering Article 50

The Brexit Secretary predicts amendments "ping-pong" in the Lords means the exit process won't start until the end of March.

David Davis has admitted the Government's hopes of triggering Article 50 early next month are likely to be dashed by the House of Lords.
Theresa May had hoped the Article 50 Bill would clear the Lords unamended on 7 March and receive Royal Assent in time for a summit of EU leaders on 9 March.
But in a U-turn after making confident predictions last week, the Brexit Secretary has admitted he is now expecting "ping pong" between the Lords and the Commons.
Speaking during a visit to Stockholm, Mr Davis conceded that peers will pass amendments to the Bill, saying he was expecting the House of Lords to "do its job of scrutiny".
"We'll have some passing backwards and forward," he said at a news conference alongside Sweden's EU and trade minister Ann Linde.
"We call it ping-pong, you can imagine why, backwards and forwards of the Bill, but I expect that to be resolved in good time before the end of March."

http://news.sky.com/story/david-davis-lords-ping-pong-likely-to-delay-triggering-article-50-10768293

cogito

The other thing that might delay things is that if a new Speaker has to be appointed, the process takes three weeks during which time Parliament doesn't function.

Rinoa

setmefree2 wrote: »

In today's news - the EU parliament is to vote on CETA....

They said yes.

gfplux

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

I may accept that you may not be trying to be selective.
You did however miss this crucial information which comes from the FT:

https://www.ft.com/content/cdd97dfa-698c-3c9f-b19c-b6faaf24f1bf

Indeed the very first sentence of your own link suggests "relocating more than 100 jobs from London to Luxembourg" which although still possibly good news for your beloved Luxembourg, is hardly the 34,000 Lloyds of London were suggesting just before Christmas.

You are perfectly correct. However 100 well paid people with their family's will be very welcome in Luxembourg.

gfplux

davomcdave wrote: »

Given that almost as many people work in the City alone as there are men, women and children in Luxembourg I think the threat is limited.

I think the real threat to the City is a slow drip of the big jobs into the EU and the little guys slowly following. If you expand your dealing floor in Milan or Paris to service EU clients then maybe (very expensive) London is no longer the obvious choice for expansion. If you start a new arm of the company then maybe London isn't the obvious and only choice.

You are correct. A small loss to the City of London is a welcome arrival for a few well paid professionals with their family's in Luxembourg.
The slow drip, drip or as I have called it in earlier posts on this thread "damage by a thousand cuts" could well damage the City in the long term.
Britain must in the short term reassure EU Nationals they are welcome to stem the slow person by person departure back home or to elsewhere and to encourage those Britain (might) need to continue to apply for a Job in Britain.
No one should ignore the small things that are happening while the "big picture" is being sorted between Westminster and Brussels.

gfplux

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Were the EU to stay as it is at the moment you may have a valid point.
However, even senior EU politicians recognise the necessity for major reform of the EU which (if it survives that long TBH) will inevitably require rethinks of those who were previously considering (or indeed would have already) a move to an EU member country.

Again you are quite right. However "we"have to deal with where we are today and that is the uncertainty surrounding Britains place in the World is (front of mind) greater than the uncertainty surrounding the future of the EU.
I am not trying to argue with you but just trying to point out that this is a very complex situation when people are making personal decisions that will effect their family.
As you may have said but definitely others have, the decisions being made now will effect our children's future for the next few decades.
The sooner the British Government together with the EU settle these negotiations the better is my opinion.