If we vote for Brexit what happens

BobQ

Ballard wrote: »

I don't personally know of anyone who voted remain but hasn't accepted the result. The use of remoaner on this thread is clearly either out of sheer stupidity or used to insult.

I agree.
I think the problem with "some" Brexiters is that they are so zealous in their beliefs that anyone trying to debate how Brexit is to be achieved is dismissed or labelled a remoaner.

BobQ

Rinoa wrote: »

New report out today raising their 2017 UK GDP forecast from 1% to 1.5%.

So, which organisation is so bold as to increase its forecast by 50% in just 3 months?

https://order-order.com/2017/02/13/eu-commission-brexit-better-for-britain-than-we-thought/

Or if you want a more balanced report

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-eu-forecasts-growth-idUKKBN15S162

The EU still forecasts a continuing decline in the GDP, higher inflation and unemployment.

But if GDP does fall to only 1.5% that is good compared to the previous figure and I agree that is in the EU's interest to make things seem worse for the UK.

BobQ

mystic_trev wrote: »

I'm beginning to think that a 'remainer' is someone who hasn't been PPR'd from this Forum!

No "remainers" are those who zealously believe that Brexit will be a disaster for the country, "ex-remainers" are those who believe that some form of Brexit is needed to meet the democratic will of the nation. Those who have not been PPR'd are naturally polite individuals or those who have been fortunate in staying just the right side murky line.

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

What is the evidence that an increase in sales is due to Brexit (which of course has not happened?)

Increasing household debt is a worrying indicator. Consumers cannot drive retail growth indefinately.

BobQ

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Increasing household debt is a worrying indicator. Consumers cannot drive retail growth indefinately.

True, but my comment was about the 10% increase in Teddy Bear export sales by a small company who have increased their sales to non-EU countries The link of that to Brexit seems rather flimsy, merely reflecting the increased effort on selling to non-EU nations.

gfplux

It would seem we are all agreed, I hope.

Brexiter - Citizens Who voted in the referendum to leave the EU.
Remainer - Citizens who voted in the referendum to remain in the EU.

Silly Billy - someone who uses a term other than above.

gfplux

Some possible good news for Luxembourg
I am trying not to be selective. The Irish Times says that Dublin is still in the running.

http://www.relocatemagazine.com/news/brexit-lloyds-of-london-favouring-move-to-luxembourg-david-sapsted

The global insurance services provider was originally looking at picking a post-Brexit subsidiary from a shortlist of five: Luxembourg, Malta, Dublin, Frankfurt and Paris. But last month, chief executive Inga Beale said Malta had been ruled out.
Faced with the possibility of losing crucial licensing rights when Britain left the EU, Ms Beale said, “We’re going to be setting up a subsidiary somewhere else in the EU – a country that we hope will remain in the EU – and that is how we are going to provide seamless coverage to our customers.”
Luxembourg 'a favourite'

Lloyd's plans to make a final decision by the end of March but, according to reports, Luxembourg – a lynchpin of European unity – emerged as favourite during a recent board meeting in London.
The Financial Times commented, “Lawyers say that establishing an EU base could be more difficult for Lloyd’s than for more conventional insurers because it is a market consisting of many underwriters, rather than a company.
“Many of the insurers that operate at Lloyd’s are also looking for alternative bases in the EU. A large number of them are leaning towards Dublin because of its language, legal system and proximity to London.”
A Lloyd's spokesman declined to comment on the likelihood of Luxembourg being chosen. “We are continuing to work through the process of establishing a subsidiary in the European Union and no decision has been taken on where that will be,” he said.
'Seamless access to the EU'

“We want to be able to provide our customers with a seamless access to the European Union and vice versa – as we know businesses in Europe will want to be able to access the Lloyd’s market.”
Unlike some of its rivals, Luxembourg has adopted a fairly low-key approach in its attempts to lure jobs from London. “We don’t need to do anything more in particular,” according to Nicholas Mackel, chief executive of the industry promotion body Luxembourg for Finance.
“We are open for business as normal. We are not out to poach business, but we are talking to financial institutions and trying to help them find solutions.
“We have a very attractive environment with a good, well-established reputation, a strong ecosystem of service providers and a responsive, business-friendly regulator. We are not expecting entire banks to move here – at least not at the start – but we could see chunks of activity migrate here.”
Jean-Marc Goy, counsel for international affairs at Luxembourg's Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier, made it clear recently that it would be “totally unacceptable” to the country's regulators for financial companies to try and establish token offices in Luxembourg after Brexit.
'Not just a postal address'

“EU rules require substance in the jurisdiction where an entity is established and we in Luxembourg are very mindful that that substance complies at all time with the EU rules,” said Mr Goy. “It will depend on the size and the technicality of the activities being relocated, but one thing is for sure: it cannot just be a postal address or a letter-box entity. That would be absolutely unacceptable.”
Meanwhile, the post-Brexit uncertainty engulfing the financial sector has led to Luxembourg fund management company FundRock, which already has a UK operation, announcing it will open an office in Dublin to leverage on post-Brexit opportunities.
In a statement, FundRock said, “Following the market uncertainty created in the investment management sector post-Brexit, FundRock is opening an Irish office to service their clients’ needs and capitalise on the significant rise in UK-based deal flows.”

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

Some possible good news for Luxembourg
I am trying not to be selective. The Irish Times says that Dublin is still in the running.

I may accept that you may not be trying to be selective.
You did however miss this crucial information which comes from the FT:

Like many other financial services companies, Lloyd’s uses passporting rights to access other EU markets from its London base. However, those rights are likely to disappear after Brexit, so Lloyd’s is planning to set up a new EU base elsewhere. The vast majority of its operations will remain in London.

https://www.ft.com/content/cdd97dfa-698c-3c9f-b19c-b6faaf24f1bf

Indeed the very first sentence of your own link suggests "relocating more than 100 jobs from London to Luxembourg" which although still possibly good news for your beloved Luxembourg, is hardly the 34,000 Lloyds of London were suggesting just before Christmas.

davomcdave

Given that almost as many people work in the City alone as there are men, women and children in Luxembourg I think the threat is limited.

I think the real threat to the City is a slow drip of the big jobs into the EU and the little guys slowly following. If you expand your dealing floor in Milan or Paris to service EU clients then maybe (very expensive) London is no longer the obvious choice for expansion. If you start a new arm of the company then maybe London isn't the obvious and only choice.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

davomcdave wrote: »

Given that almost as many people work in the City alone as there are men, women and children in Luxembourg I think the threat is limited.

I think the real threat to the City is a slow drip of the big jobs into the EU and the little guys slowly following. If you expand your dealing floor in Milan or Paris to service EU clients then maybe (very expensive) London is no longer the obvious choice for expansion. If you start a new arm of the company then maybe London isn't the obvious and only choice.

Were the EU to stay as it is at the moment you may have a valid point.
However, even senior EU politicians recognise the necessity for major reform of the EU which (if it survives that long TBH) will inevitably require rethinks of those who were previously considering (or indeed would have already) a move to an EU member country.