If we vote for Brexit what happens

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

Good point. Google tells me that the assets are worth about 150bn EUR, so we'd be trying to get a share of it that might be about enough to cancel out the UK commitments debt, rather than giving us any cash back.

It seems there's talk about wanting the actual assets (including ~5000 bottles of wine and ~1.2bn worth of artworks, and ~8bn of property folio) rather than getting cash back, so we may still have to fork over billions in cash in exchange for some stuff. I wonder where the wine and art will go, and how much money we'll waste of transport/storage.

To be honest, I suspect we'll concede more or less all of the EU assets as part of whatever deal we manage to get.

EU assets may be valued far higher than the snippet you choose to quote, see the post above yours for just one example.
Do not assume to know all the assets - and no I am not assuming either but you may be certain that they are greater than you or I imagine.

Also, regarding "talk" (and that is all it is) of physical assets:

We don't really want EU wine from their "lake" thank you. There are many better new world wines and we can choose what we want.
So write that idea off; we'll take hard cash instead.

Property?
Look, if it's not in the UK what's the point?
I mean, knowing the EU they will only make us pay one way or another - new punitive taxes for non-Eurozone-owned properties for example.
Nope, we'll take hard cash thank you.

Works of art?
Firstly we have quite enough of our own.
Secondly can realistic value be agreed?
Thirdly is the provenance sound?
That'll be another "no thank you" then.
We'll take cash.

There you go you see?
All that concern over transport, storage etc. will be completely unfounded.
Because if "the EU" do decide to play hardball silly beggars there is no way will ANY of it be conceded anywhere near as easily as you suspect.
Then I have to say "if it comes to that".

Herzlos

If only it was that cut-and-dry.

Why wouldn't the UK government want to take hold of property across Europe? I mean, we'll potentially want either (a) more presence in some places because we're boosting trading, or (b) the investment income.

We may want some of the art for cultural reasons.

The EU may say we own some number of X,Y,Z and that they don't want to give us face value cash for them, or any cash at all. We're not automatically entitled to the cash value (based on whos estimate) of any of the assets, though we may be entitled to some of the assets themselves.

steampowered

Frankly I do not see why the UK would be entitled to any of the EU's assets.

The UK is choosing to leave. We aren't being kicked out.

There is nothing in the EU treaty which says we are entitled to those assets.

If you were to join your local football club, and then decided to leave a few years later, you wouldn't demand a share of the clubhouse on your way out.

mrginge

steampowered wrote: »

Frankly I do not see why the UK would be entitled to any of the EU's assets.

The UK is choosing to leave. We aren't being kicked out.

There is nothing in the EU treaty which says we are entitled to those assets.

If you were to join your local football club, and then decided to leave a few years later, you wouldn't demand a share of the clubhouse on your way out.

You might do if you'd paid to build the clubhouse.

StevieJ

steampowered wrote: »

Frankly I do not see why the UK would be entitled to any of the EU's assets.

The UK is choosing to leave. We aren't being kicked out.

There is nothing in the EU treaty which says we are entitled to those assets.

If you were to join your local football club, and then decided to leave a few years later, you wouldn't demand a share of the clubhouse on your way out.

Fair enough, does that mean we can forget the future liabilities? After all if you left that football club you wouldn't expect to be paying the club employees pensions in the future would you?

cogito

steampowered wrote: »

Frankly I do not see why the UK would be entitled to any of the EU's assets.

The UK is choosing to leave. We aren't being kicked out.

There is nothing in the EU treaty which says we are entitled to those assets.

If you were to join your local football club, and then decided to leave a few years later, you wouldn't demand a share of the clubhouse on your way out.

In the case of a divorce, who gets the house is usually the first item on the table.

gfplux

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

I have said before, many times now, that I do not actively WISH the destruction of the EU; also that of course effects from collapse would be felt here in the UK too.
HOWEVER it really does more and more appear likely that the EU are to be hoisted by their own petard.
The nepotistic senior bureaucracy within the EU will not accept the radical change that is so badly needed and this will be a major factor in such "hoisting".


BTW
Is there any news in Luxembourg of intentions to increase military funding to appease the UN/Trump?
As by far the EU's lowest contributor by percentage, I mean.

No news at the moment.

gfplux

An interesting read from Politico.eu

http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-negotiation-issues-worrying-the-european-parliament/


I am sure they have their own axe to grind (Politico) I have no idea what side of any argument they are on.

However it does highlight a number of issues both sides will face in the coming months.

davomcdave

cogito wrote: »

In the case of a divorce, who gets the house is usually the first item on the table.

It's not a divorce or a soccer club though,

This is exactly why we're highly likely to end up with 'Eric Brexit' or what the FT calls 'Train Wreck Brexit' where 2 years comes up after Article 50 is triggered little or nothing has been agreed at which point chaos ensues.

vivatifosi

davomcdave wrote: »

It's not a divorce or a soccer club though,

This is exactly why we're highly likely to end up with 'Eric Brexit' or what the FT calls 'Train Wreck Brexit' where 2 years comes up after Article 50 is triggered little or nothing has been agreed at which point chaos ensues.

There's a lot of stuff written about Brexit to the extent it's hard to know what the plans are; however I recall someone suggesting that the government had considered entering a transitional arrangement along the lines of EFTA, perhaps with the Cameron restrictions, which we stay in until the deal is negotiated. If we do something like this, then there should be less opportunity for a train wreck (hopefully).