If we vote for Brexit what happens

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

The U.K. consumer finally appears to be cracking -- potentially taking Britain’s economic strength with it.

Retail sales unexpectedly fell for a third month in January, calling into question the key component of the economy’s recent momentum. The decline left both the three-month and annual rates of growth at the slowest in more than three years.

Consumer Collapse Starting

davomcdave

vivatifosi wrote: »

There's a lot of stuff written about Brexit to the extent it's hard to know what the plans are; however I recall someone suggesting that the government had considered entering a transitional arrangement along the lines of EFTA, perhaps with the Cameron restrictions, which we stay in until the deal is negotiated. If we do something like this, then there should be less opportunity for a train wreck (hopefully).

The problem that I foresee is that the whole negotiation is so complex that it could possibly be done in a decade if fingers were thoroughly pulled out. There is no way that people are going to wait a decade of complex negotiations

All sorts of problems seem to be popping up now we're actually leaving. Complicated, boring things that experts in their fields warned of in quiet voices during the campaign but that were widely ignored. We are so interlinked with the EU in so many ways due to the last 40-odd years of political history I don't see walking away being simple or anything other than a mess:

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/brexit-clinical-trials-life-saving-patient-access-health-new-drugs-mhra-ema-eu-denied-at-risk-a7586551.html

Brexit: Access to potentially life-saving clinical trials ‘at risk’ for 600,000 patients

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Consumer Collapse Starting

From your link:

“The consumer tends to react pretty quickly -- within a quarter or two -- when they start to notice the difference in their weekly budget,” Justin King, former chief executive officer of J Sainsbury Plc, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “Given that about half the food and groceries that are sold in the U.K. are purchased in either euros or dollars,” sterling’s slump will likely drive inflation of 3-5 percent before year end, he said.

If inflation rises and incomes don't rise with it then by definition people either need to save less or spend less.

If people are worried about the future economy then they tend to save more.

Many people supporting Brexit on here seem to think that a fall off in the economy is likely and a price worth paying.

There's only one possible outcome really.

mayonnaise

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Consumer Collapse Starting

“The consumer tends to react pretty quickly -- within a quarter or two -- when they start to notice the difference in their weekly budget,” Justin King, former chief executive officer of J Sainsbury Plc, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “Given that about half the food and groceries that are sold in the U.K. are purchased in either euros or dollars,” sterling’s slump will likely drive inflation of 3-5 percent before year end, he said.

The Great British Consumer should be switching to homegrown products like Welsh Sea Black Butter and Sussex Chardonnay.

gfplux

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Consumer Collapse Starting

One month or one quarter still it is early days.
No one should be despairing or, hopefully NOT happy at these figures.
A MAJOR currency shift as that seen takes a long time to play out.
We need to wait and see.

gfplux

Talking EU /British assets
One paragraph from 13 things you may not know about Brexit at Politico.eu

3,800 — Brits paid by the EU or receiving EU pensions

Some 1,800 EU staff are British nationals and a further 2,000 Brits receive EU pensions, the budget committee notes under the heading “provisions to be addressed in the ‘Exit’ agreement and the future EU-U.K. relations.” The numbers of people looks small, but the total price tag for dealing with all employment and entitlement issues arising from Brexit is likely to run to €7 billion, according to a European Commission source.

So even after Brexit, a good number of Brits will still have financial ties to the EU for decades to come. Some junior British staff at the European Parliament, for example, are still in their early twenties. By the time they retire, most pensions will kick in only at around age 70 — about 45 years after Brexit has taken place.

mrginge

gfplux wrote: »

So even after Brexit, a good number of Brits will still have financial ties to the EU for decades to come. Some junior British staff at the European Parliament, for example, are still in their early twenties. By the time they retire, most pensions will kick in only at around age 70 — about 45 years after Brexit has taken place.

I mean it actually sounds like you think in 45 years time we will be sending an annual cheque over to the EU to cover the pensions of these people.

We all know that you don't actually mean that though because only an utter moron would consider that to be reality.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

davomcdave wrote: »

The problem that I foresee is that the whole negotiation is so complex that it could possibly be done in a decade if fingers were thoroughly pulled out. There is no way that people are going to wait a decade of complex negotiations

All sorts of problems seem to be popping up now we're actually leaving. Complicated, boring things that experts in their fields warned of in quiet voices during the campaign but that were widely ignored. We are so interlinked with the EU in so many ways due to the last 40-odd years of political history I don't see walking away being simple or anything other than a mess:

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/brexit-clinical-trials-life-saving-patient-access-health-new-drugs-mhra-ema-eu-denied-at-risk-a7586551.html





From your link:


If inflation rises and incomes don't rise with it then by definition people either need to save less or spend less.

If people are worried about the future economy then they tend to save more.

Many people supporting Brexit on here seem to think that a fall off in the economy is likely and a price worth paying.

There's only one possible outcome really.

There are a lot of "if's" in your post.

Firstly, Brexit really need not be complicated.
As many, politicians included, have said; it could be very simple.
The EU however loves bureaucracy so you know they will attempt to drag things out if they can.
You're correct though that many will not accept a decade of discussions.

"If" ... "if" ... "if" .... you know, I have said before that personally speaking I do not expect Brexit to be smooth and/or trouble-free.
But when even the likes of the IMF and the CBI are suggesting that the UK's growth will remain high (indeed [still] the highest in the G7) why are you only considering such negative forecasts?

Now to retail sales falling:
Firstly remember this fall was of 0.2% in January.
It may well be a sign of the beginnings of a retail slowdown, but it is pure scaremongering to describe it as a "retail collapse" at this point in time.
Or are you suggesting that retail trade figures have never before seen such variation in growth?

Then remind us please where much of what we buy comes from?
Imports, perchance?
Does lower imports - especially at a time when our exports are increasing - not equate to good news for our trade imbalance then?

If the public do indeed start saving more, that too is an added bonus:

Savings Bring Recovery
The idea that savings help out in a tough economy isn't an earth-shattering revelation. But you might be surprised to find out just how much a high savings rate can speed up economic recovery.

http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0310/savings-are-a-blessing-in-a-slow-recovery.aspx

So unlike those so set upon predictions of doom and gloom, if you take a balanced viewpoint somewhere between the "Project Fear" and "Great Britain Will Again Rule The World" stances you might see that the probability is that for most of us life will continue pretty much as before.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

If the public do indeed start saving more, that too is an added bonus:
.

If it's a nasty recession that pushes them into saving more that's usually the opposite of "an added bonus"...

Anyway - the savings rate rose steeply during the dark days of 2008-2010 when over a million people lost their jobs, largely because of the reduction in economic activity caused by constrained lending (financial crisis) and this was worsened by increased saving.

Since then the consumer has spent more, saved less, and borrowed more - particularly in the last year - but this is not sustainable.

Remind me again what happened last time the savings ratio dropped this low?



And it's especially worrying given consumer borrowing has shot through the roof over the last year or so - meaning there's very little headroom for the consumer spending binge that has deferred the economic pain since Brexit to continue...

Credit card debt hit a record high of £66.2bn in October and overall unsecured lending increased by 10.5pc in the past year, a rate not seen since 2005 at the end of a decade-long boom in borrowing.

If the economy takes a turn for the worse, as many experts think it will next year, then officials are concerned that this latest debt binge could be ruinous for many families.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/12/10/credit-crunch-household-debt-rising-just-economys-future-uncertain/

davomcdave

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

There are a lot of "if's" in your post.

Of course there are as it's a thought experiment as series of logical statements: if this happens then what happens next...?

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Firstly, Brexit really need not be complicated.
As many, politicians included, have said; it could be very simple.

LOL. If it could be undone simply then why the big fuss about EU regulation? If there wasn't a huge impost from Europe then there'd be no reason to leave and if there is then it'll be a huge job to unravel.

Why leave the EU if it has no real impact on British laws and standards?

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

The EU however loves bureaucracy so you know they will attempt to drag things out if they can.

TBH I quite like bureaucracy when it comes to seat belts, medicine and the food I feed my family.

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

You're correct though that many will not accept a decade of discussions.

I am right which is why Eric Brexit is the most likely IMO. No agreement, no clue about what is happening.

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

"If" ... "if" ... "if" .... you know, I have said before that personally speaking I do not expect Brexit to be smooth and/or trouble-free.
But when even the likes of the IMF and the CBI are suggesting that the UK's growth will remain high (indeed [still] the highest in the G7) why are you only considering such negative forecasts?

Now to retail sales falling:
Firstly remember this fall was of 0.2% in January.
It may well be a sign of the beginnings of a retail slowdown, but it is pure scaremongering to describe it as a "retail collapse" at this point in time.
Or are you suggesting that retail trade figures have never before seen such variation in growth?

Then remind us please where much of what we buy comes from?
Imports, perchance?
Does lower imports - especially at a time when our exports are increasing - not equate to good news for our trade imbalance then?

If the public do indeed start saving more, that too is an added bonus:
http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0310/savings-are-a-blessing-in-a-slow-recovery.aspx

So unlike those so set upon predictions of doom and gloom, if you take a balanced viewpoint somewhere between the "Project Fear" and "Great Britain Will Again Rule The World" stances you might see that the probability is that for most of us life will continue pretty much as before.

Put it this way. If you buy much of your food from elsewhere and can't grow it yourself then who has the upper hand, the exporter or the importer? I'd rather be the bloke with the food than the money. Maybe that simply shows my naivit! as a liberal whatever the current remainer insult is.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

davomcdave wrote: »

Of course there are as it's a thought experiment as series of logical statements: if this happens then what happens next...?
You still do not answer why it is that you do not temper your doom-laden predictions with those (which abound BTW) that are more positive? As in my examples above of the CBI and IMF.
Why do you disregard these?

LOL. If it could be undone simply then why the big fuss about EU regulation? If there wasn't a huge impost from Europe then there'd be no reason to leave and if there is then it'll be a huge job to unravel.
Ah, but examine if you will just WHO is making this fuss?
Is it by any chance British Europhiles and the EU?
Because it most certainly is not those who voted to leave, is it?
Why leave the EU if it has no real impact on British laws and standards?
Who suggests this?
Not me or anyone else I have seen posting - unless you can provide evidence?
Are you therefore inventing your own argument now?
Besides which a solution for extraction from this mire has already been suggested by our government (adoption into UK law for now); did you miss that bit?

TBH I quite like bureaucracy when it comes to seat belts, medicine and the food I feed my family.
You may, though it is interesting how you choose these examples and not say a limit on working hours to 48; or the insistence that VAT be added to fuel bills; or the insistence that Type1 Diabetics may only hold a driving licence in "very exceptional circumstances" ; or indeed any one of a very long list of what are seen by many (including many Eurozone inhabitants BTW; ask the French) as being "interfering" by the EU.
I am right which is why Eric Brexit is the most likely IMO. No agreement, no clue about what is happening.
No, you are not.
Perhaps as I said earlier you could try being more objective?
I'm sorry that you have no clue when most of us do clearly know what we want; we want to leave the EU - but you do not want us to.

Put it this way. If you buy much of your food from elsewhere and can't grow it yourself then who has the upper hand, the exporter or the importer? I'd rather be the bloke with the food than the money. Maybe that simply shows my naivit! as a liberal whatever the current remainer insult is.
No, try putting it this way:
Food may be a necessity but that huge TV or iPhone certainly are not. Neither are so many other things that huge amounts of the British public buy every day.
And which cost do you think it most likely will be reduced first?
Are you seriously suggesting that people will starve rather than forego updating their phone or TV?

Response highlighted above.
No insult necessary on either side ............ is there?