If we vote for Brexit what happens

Mortgagefreeman

mayonnaise wrote: »

Are you talking about the better than expected performance of our services sector in Q3-Q4?

Fueled by credit.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/04/uk-credit-cards-borrowing-debt-economic-crash-fears



Ring. Ring.

Another remoaner with his glass half empty. A bit like his arguments, fuelled by BS.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

On the contrary, you've been remarkably silent on what you plan to do when the good times never materialize, though.

There will be no Brexit specific downturn.


If you look at my posts in the year leading up to the vote I always argued the adaptation would be gradual and that business would manage any challenges perfectly well.

Conrad

mayonnaise wrote: »

Are you talking about the better than expected performance of our services sector in Q3-Q4?

Fueled by credit.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/04/uk-credit-cards-borrowing-debt-economic-crash-fears



Ring. Ring.

Exactly Mayo, exactly!


The trade deficit and lack of production were filled with consumption fuelled by debt, THIS IS THE BRITISH DISEASE I'VE BEEN ON ABOUT FOR YONKS, and that devaluation and Brexit can cure.


The borrow and spend model is a function of a lack of proper production and export health, which gave us a mass of non-jobs based around cheap imports and consumption as well as selling one another houses and haircuts.


We need to earn hard currency through production and exports, not the sickly economic model we've limped along with until now.


Good to see you're seeing the light Mayo!
BREXIT = ECONOMIC REVOLUTION

vivatifosi

I'm not sure that this is the right place to post or whether there is a specific thread on France floating around. Francis Fillion has been caught up in a scandal. Will this further enable the Marine Le Pen run?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/27/penelope-gate-casts-dark-shadow-over-fillons-presidential-prospects

Herzlos

Mortgagefreeman wrote: »

Another remoaner with his glass half empty. A bit like his arguments, fuelled by BS.

Can you produce anything to disprove his statement? That the increase in the economy is not related to the increase in debt level?

I'm not sure it's glass half empty if it happens to be true, no?

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

There will be no Brexit specific downturn.

And if there is, will you admit you were wrong?

Though even you have admitted that there may be some slowing, and that we'll lose some jobs (unless I'm mistaken, in which case I apologise). At least, almost everyone on the Brexit side seems to accept some economic pain is worth the sovereignty.

vivatifosi

gfplux wrote: »

Bad news for Luxembourg!
Frankfurt look like they will get many of the Banking jobs.
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/jan/27/frankfurt-brexit-bankers-london-boring

"A recent survey of 360 London bankers by the Boston Consulting Group put Frankfurt in a prime position, ahead of rivals such as Paris, Amsterdam, Dublin or Luxembourg. Its advantages were its central location, sophisticated infrastructure and property prices considerably lower than in London or Paris."

And

"Frankfurt itself talks of between 8,000 and 20,000 jobs moving here from London, incrementally. Real estate agents are said to be feverishly fielding property enquiries from companies, with the main question being not so much an interest in prices – which are considerably lower than in London or Paris – but the availability of luxury housing."

And

"A recent research paper by Prof Dirk Schiereck of the Technical University in Darmstadt concluded that the merger between the London Stock Exchange and Deutsche Börse (which commissioned the paper) increases the probability of Frankfurt securing a large chunk of post-Brexit spoils. The report predicts the German city will become “the clear European centre for financial market regulation and … the European centre for supranational risk management”."

It's not over till the fat lady sings.

They still need a big chunk of real estate to achieve this, which I'm not convinced is there at present. If it comes down to supply and demand, those Frankfurt office prices will rise to those of Paris or London pdq.

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

Exactly Mayo, exactly!


The trade deficit and lack of production were filled with consumption fuelled by debt, THIS IS THE BRITISH DISEASE I'VE BEEN ON ABOUT FOR YONKS, and that devaluation and Brexit can cure.

Oh right. And how is this devaluation cure working after 7-ish months?

The pound has slipped close to its lowest level against the US dollar since June's Brexit vote, after official figures showed a worse than expected widening of the UK trade deficit.

The British Chambers of Commerce said the figures confirmed that "there is little evidence that the fall in the value of the pound is boosting the UK's overall trade balance".

http://news.sky.com/story/sterling-nears-post-referendum-low-as-trade-deficit-widens-10724919

Some cure.

Masomnia

vivatifosi wrote: »

They still need a big chunk of real estate to achieve this, which I'm not convinced is there at present. If it comes down to supply and demand, those Frankfurt office prices will rise to those of Paris or London pdq.

Indeed, it would be interesting to know if prices in Frankfurt are already rising in anticipation of banking staff moving over there.

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

There will be no Brexit specific downturn.

You sure about that? With May in charge?

Conrad wrote: »

Leadsom is the lass. May lacks the risk taking and Vision required to make the most of our Tiger economy

:rotfl: