If we vote for Brexit what happens

CKhalvashi

Conrad wrote: »

Productivity in the UK is harder to increase because we are a service oriented nation. This is well known.

How?

£1 an hour is still £2000 a year.

From the ONS:

There were 31.76 million people in work, little changed compared with May to July 2016 but 342,000 more than for a year earlier.
There were 23.20 million people working full-time, 235,000 more than for a year earlier. There were 8.56 million people working part-time, 107,000 more than for a year earlier.

So, 23.2 million, plus 8.56 million multiplied 0.5 = 27.48m

Total UK public sector employment was 5.442 million. This was 12,000 higher than at June 2016 and 10,000 lower than at September 2015.

27.48m - 5.45m = 22.03m

x 2000 = £44bn, as a target, averaged out for exports/new services annually across the entire population.

• Total trade exports for November 2016 were £29.3 billion. This was an increase of £2.5 billion (9.4 per cent) compared with last month, and an increase of £4.5 billion (18 per cent) compared with November 2015.
• Total trade imports for November 2016 were £42.5 billion. This was an increase of £2.9 billion (7.4 per cent) compared with last month, and an increase of £7.6 billion (22 per cent) compared with November 2015.

That's 25% of November's gap gone when averaged out over a year, and before we've dealt with the inemployed or new arrivals to the UK, when looked at on a GVA level.

A simple automation of processes in services should be able to lead to a lot of this, if aimed at the right areas. Just look at the likes of Uber, who don't use dispatchers, have a small office team (estimated at 5x the drivers of AL in London and 20% of the staff, so 2500% improvement in productivity everything being the same, which I appreciate it's not in that case).

And again, outsourcing some lower value service work abroad so as a nation we can focus on the stuff that brings in revenue (which if done right will aid international development too) is important.

I'd argue that you (and many others, remainers too) are looking at this (the issue in productivity) in completely the wrong way.

Any issues with what I've written, let me know. I have just got up and didn't get to bed until 3am.

davomcdave

Conrad wrote: »

Productivity in the UK is harder to increase because we are a service oriented nation. This is well known.

It depends which services you are talking about.

It is hard for a hairdresser or a waiter or a care worker to increase their productivity. This is probably why people in lower paid service jobs were finding themselves left behind in wages and why the Tories' big increase in the minimum wage is a big deal.

Many service providers have seen huge increases in their productivity however. Many office workers at all levels have seen things like Excel, Sage and Word revolutionise the way that they work and in many cases has vastly increased their productivity. Things like very fast internet have massively boosted the rate at which some sorts of medical testers can work. Faster computers, better software and other innovations have increased the productivity of film and sound editors.

It is harder to measure increases in productivity among service workers but that doesn't mean those increases don't exist.

setmefree2

Conrad wrote: »

It's being reported in the Guardian that the EUs chief negotiator Michael Barnier has stated this is of prime importance and an arrangement must be found.

Interesting turn of events.

EU negotiator wants 'special' deal over access to City post-Brexit

Exclusive: minutes of Michel Barnier’s meeting with senior MEPs reveal he wants 27 member states to have easy access to London’s financial institutions

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/13/eu-negotiator-wants-special-deal-over-access-to-city-post-brexit

Thrugelmir

Conrad wrote: »

Productivity in the UK is harder to increase because we are a service oriented nation. This is well known.

Depends what people do in their working hours. Output is the key. Rather than updating ones facebook page.

Mortgagefreeman

setmefree2 wrote: »

Interesting turn of events.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/13/eu-negotiator-wants-special-deal-over-access-to-city-post-brexit

The article seems to be in most of the Broadsheets now. I'm not really surprised. Most of the major EU powers will be queuing up for their 'Special relationship' It's one thing or say you're acting tough, but another when it comes to trading with a Country that's a major importer of your goods.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Nope.

Fake news....

The EU did not give a grant to Cadburys to move to Poland, nor Dyson to move to Malaysia, not any of the other completely made up stories going around facebook.

Not exactly true Hamish - and certainly not accurate.
NOT, please note, that I am about to blame the evils of the world on the EU; regardless of direct blame however we are all only too well aware that the EU has certainly aided UK companies moving out of the UK through EU policies.

Look beyond Facebook and find what the EU has funded.
EU-funded Ford factory in Turkey to build Ford Transits, closing the UK plant:
http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/10026411.Focus_on_Ford__The___80m_EU_loan_for_Ford_s_Turkish_Transit_plant/

This from the Financial Times in 2010:

EU rules specifically forbid grants from its structural funds from going to subsidise the relocation of businesses. But a joint investigation by the Financial Times and the non-profit Bureau for Investigative Journalism found companies ranging from British tea maker Twinings to automotive company Valeo were at the very least receiving EU subsidies to help with the establishment of new factories, the extension of existing ones and the training of workers in their new homes.

https://www.ft.com/content/74ab02a6-fd85-11df-a049-00144feab49a


Fortunately the lower exchange rate is already showing signs of boosting UK manufacturing once more; long may this continue.
We may rise again from the world's 11th-largest manufacturing nation; not quite the nonentity some seem to think the UK to be.
http://www.themanufacturer.com/uk-manufacturing-statistics/

cogito

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Not exactly true Hamish - and certainly not accurate.
NOT, please note, that I am about to blame the evils of the world on the EU; regardless of direct blame however we are all only too well aware that the EU has certainly aided UK companies moving out of the UK through EU policies.

Look beyond Facebook and find what the EU has funded.
EU-funded Ford factory in Turkey to build Ford Transits, closing the UK plant:
http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/10026411.Focus_on_Ford__The___80m_EU_loan_for_Ford_s_Turkish_Transit_plant/

This from the Financial Times in 2010:
https://www.ft.com/content/74ab02a6-fd85-11df-a049-00144feab49a


Fortunately the lower exchange rate is already showing signs of boosting UK manufacturing once more; long may this continue.
We may rise again from the world's 11th-largest manufacturing nation; not quite the nonentity some seem to think the UK to be.
http://www.themanufacturer.com/uk-manufacturing-statistics/

Beat me to it Jock. I was about to post exactly the same link. Funny how Hamish keeps tripping himself up. Must be his EU coloured blinkers.

Mortgagefreeman

cogito wrote: »

Beat me to it Jock. I was about to post exactly the same link. Funny how Hamish keeps tripping himself up.

Easily done when you continue to adopt the 'ostrich position' A very common trait found in most remoaners.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Not exactly true Hamish - and certainly not accurate.

It most certainly is exactly true.

The EU did not give grants to Cadbury (as Graham claimed) or Dyson or any of the other names on that rubbish list circulating online to move plants out of the UK.

In fact on the entire list of dozens of claims the Ford story appears to be the only one where there is even a circumstantial link, and even that is tendentious.

Ford did apply for a low interest £150m EU loan to expand production at Ford-Turkey - which was already making 200,000 Transits a year at that point - and then did subsequently close the small plant in the UK making 28K Transits a year.

But even that isn't the whole story - as just a couple of years earlier Ford-UK received £450m in EU funding for development of production here.

So it's complete balderdash to claim Ford was given grants to move production to the EU.

In fact the EU loaned Ford more for production in the UK than they did in Turkey.

£450m of EU lending to Ford in the UK. £150m of EU lending to Ford in Turkey.

we are all only too well aware that the EU has certainly aided UK companies moving out of the UK through EU policies.

The EU has never offered grants to move companies out of the Uk.

The EU does of course have low interest lending programmes for development across the EU - including in Britain - and loaned £6bn to projects in the UK last year alone.

Look beyond Facebook

Quite....

I'd suggest you start here....

rather than the EU shooing companies away from the UK, our membership of the single market wins us vast sums in investment, both from businesses headquartered on the continent and international firms that want to use the UK as a springboard to access the bloc.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies notes foreign direct investment to the UK is worth an average £54 billion per year. It reckons Brexit would reduce this sum by between 10% and 45%.

https://infacts.org/eu-not-paying-uk-firms-outsource/

Fortunately the lower exchange rate is already showing signs of boosting UK manufacturing once more; long may this continue.

I'll let the head of 'Economists for Brexit' and 'Vote Leave's' most prominent economist, Professor Patrick Minford, reply to that for me....

“Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing and hi-tech."
~Patrick Minford

Thrugelmir

davomcdave wrote: »

Many service providers have seen huge increases in their productivity however. Many office workers at all levels have seen things like Excel, Sage and Word revolutionise the way that they work and in many cases has vastly increased their productivity. Things like very fast internet have massively boosted the rate at which some sorts of medical testers can work. Faster computers, better software and other innovations have increased the productivity of film and sound editors.

Technology has to be used properly. Been plenty of white elephant IT projects. Not cheap either. When you are are forced to employ "consultants" at hundreds of pounds a day for support and set-up. Technology should be intuitive to use. Not so opaque.