If we vote for Brexit what happens

davomcdave

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

For the LibDems it is undoubtedly good news, yes.
All it shows (in fairness) is just how far Labour have fallen.


If however you in some wild moment of madness see this as even remotely possible nationally were a GE to be announced at this moment in time you are, to be perfectly honest, delusional.

All those people that think Corbyn is a complete idiot and can't vote for a party led by him have to vote for someone and the Lib Dems might be on to a good thing being the only party going to an election on a Remain platform as well. If the Lib Dems could get 48% of the vote, which they won't, then they'd romp home.

If you are a Blairite-type then the Lib Dems are about the size of your choice. My guess is that the Lib Dems could get back up to the 15-20% mark by the next election, maybe even 25%. Polling suggests that support for Remain remains basically unchanged since the vote and those voters, not all of whom will be Blairites, will also be looking for a political home.

Herzlos

You'd then get the 56ish SNP MPs (8.6%) who are very likely to align with anyone who wants to remain. That may be enough to give any major Leave party the edge when it comes to majority.

mayonnaise

Freddo chocolate bar price to rise to 30p

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/13/freddo-chocolate-bar-price-rise-30p/

CKhalvashi

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

For the LibDems it is undoubtedly good news, yes.
All it shows (in fairness) is just how far Labour have fallen.


If however you in some wild moment of madness see this as even remotely possible nationally were a GE to be announced at this moment in time you are, to be perfectly honest, delusional.

I don't expect that to be replicated nationally, but I think the 25-30% mark is well within reach (realistically 20%ish swing) if really pushed at a GE.

At the 2010 GE, LDs came first or second in (IIRC) about 300 seats. I accept a majority might not be possible, however it depends what stance Labour take and whether the Leave vote can be split 3 ways IMO.

I think a by-election in a marginal leave seat, where LDs came 2nd in 2010, in the South of England would be really interesting. I also think that it may just about be possible to squeeze several 'safe' Tory seats, but not as safe as Maidenhead.

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Further evidence (if any were needed) of the craziness that the EU has become:
A new ruling from the EU which takes effect in the UK from March will see car insurance prices go up again.
Why?
Because the EU thinks that damage to an uninsured driver's car should be paid for.

We have similar in the UK now, it's called the MIB.

I do agree with a fund being there, and I also think the uninsured should be forced to pay the fund back, thus reducing the cost of it for the law abiding motorist. If you're stupid enough to drive without/with invalid insurance, then you deserve to be hit in the pocket personally for it.

mayonnaise wrote: »

2 months to go... until what?

Until Mrs Maybe-Maybe not supposedly activates article 50.

But there again, maybe not until after she's held a GE

Herzlos

CKhalvashi wrote: »

We have similar in the UK now, it's called the MIB.

I do agree with a fund being there, and I also think the uninsured should be forced to pay the fund back, thus reducing the cost of it for the law abiding motorist. If you're stupid enough to drive without/with invalid insurance, then you deserve to be hit in the pocket personally for it.

The MIB covers losses caused by uninsured drivers, this new regulation is the other way round, in that it covers losses made by insured drivers to uninsured drivers.

But yeah, uninsured drivers should definitely be made to pay for the losses they cause.

Graham_Devon

Another "it's the fault of brexit" excuse bites the dust...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38607480

Graham_Devon

mayonnaise wrote: »

Freddo chocolate bar price to rise to 30p

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/13/freddo-chocolate-bar-price-rise-30p/

Great....

...but

What about this? Brexit's fault too?

The price of the little chocolate bar has spiked in recent years. Many will remember how the favourite chocolate treat was just 10p in 2000.

Freddo bars were then hiked in price in 2010 to a whopping 17 pence, and in 2014 it was raised once again to 25 pence.

The very fact this is "large news" says a lot about the desperation to pin anything and everything on brexit. Since when was a 5p increase in a Freddo bar, newsworthy?

davomcdave

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Another "it's the fault of brexit" excuse bites the dust...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38607480

I've not read any suggestion that the flash crash was anything other than a mystery.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/07/what-caused-pound-flash-crash-brexit-fallen-sterling
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-06/pound-plunges-6-1-percent-in-biggest-drop-since-brexit-result
http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/06/investing/pound-flash-crash-currency-brexit/

Most publications at the time went for the 'it's a mystery' explanation just as the BIS did.

However the fall in the pound more generally is clearly connected to Brexit.

Graham_Devon

davomcdave wrote: »

I've not read any suggestion that the flash crash was anything other than a mystery.

You need to read back on these forums then!

mrginge

mayonnaise wrote: »

Freddo chocolate bar price to rise to 30p

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/13/freddo-chocolate-bar-price-rise-30p/

Good news = we haven't left the EU yet
Bad news = all because of Brexit