If we vote for Brexit what happens

ruggedtoast

This article puts a grimy patina of reality over the gaudy glass bauble of the Brexiteer's hopes for free trade with everyone:

http://www.ictsd.org/opinion/nothing-simple-about-uk-regaining-wto-status-post-brexit

Nothing simple about UK regaining WTO status post-Brexit

To be an independent WTO member, the UK would be creating its own rights and obligations out of the EU’s. That’s not as simple as it sounds. One reason is because other countries with different interests would want to ensure the balance is also right for them.

Take just one hard-fought issue: low-duty import quotas for high-quality beef, just two of almost 100 EU quotas. The EU opened these beef quotas after lengthy negotiations with Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, New Zealand, Paraguay, Uruguay, and the US.

Extracting UK beef quotas out of the EU’s would require negotiations with all of them, plus possibly other suppliers such as Botswana, India, and Namibia, and definitely the EU itself — Ireland, Germany and France have particularly strong beef lobbies.
While the exporting countries are pressing for the UK’s quota gates to be opened wider, and jostling with each other for paths through the opening, UK farmers would be pushing in the opposite direction. Remember, to reach agreement, the WTO’s consensus rule would apply.

In summary, in order to rejoin the WTO the other 160 odd countries will have to agree. One of which is Argentina. Well I can think if something we could give them that would convince them to wave us through but I don't think it would go down very well the the Top Gear and Winston Churchill brigade.

And before you Rightists all start ranting that we are already part of the WTO as part of our EU membership so will remain so, every single one of you has been arguing til blue in the face that Scotland will be kicked out of every UK specific treaty the moment it secedes from the Union.

ruggedtoast

Thanks a lot Brexitards.

Great job.

CKhalvashi

Ruggedtoast, could you do me a favour and amend my quoted post above please? I tried to PM you but your inbox is full

ruggedtoast

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Ruggedtoast, could you do me a favour and amend my quoted post above please? I tried to PM you but your inbox is full

Sure not sure what it was but its gone.

My last yellow card filled up the inbox. I need to delete some of the earlier ones...

setmefree2

Moby wrote: »

Liam Fox released a statement yesterday on the work his dept are doing with the WTO:-

"In order to minimise disruption to global trade as we leave the EU, over the coming period the government will prepare the necessary draft schedules which replicate as far as possible our current obligations."

Does this mean that we are going to keep the exact same tarrif structures that the Brexiteers said were strangling our country? In short, despite all the disruption, despite all the attacks against immigrants and the threats against EU citizens in the UK, despite all the Brexit votes and the Richmond rebellions and the sudden change in this country's political dynamic, the government is not aiming to change anything of any substance. None of this will be mentioned by the Brexiters, of course. In public they puff out their chests and accuse critics of not believing in Britain and thumb their nose at their European counterparts. But in private, well away from prying eyes, they delicately and loyally replicate all of the EU's trading arrangements, just so they stand a chance of setting themselves up in a viable manner at the WTO.

Moby wrote: »

Taken from Ian Dunt the editor of Politics.co.uk. His book - Brexit: What The Hell Happens Now?

It means that this is the first stepping stone. However, once outside the EU the UK would be free to pursue whatever tariff model it wants. Don't forget tariffs in WTO schedules are maximums - the minimum being zero. The UK could lower a particular import tariff or eliminate import quotas as it wishes (not before analyzing the effects on say British farmers). Changes could be implemented reasonably rapidly.

From WTO website

“Bound” and applied tariffs
On joining the WTO, new members commit to keep their tariffs beneath a
“bound” level, as specified in their schedules of commitments. But the tariffs they
actually apply can be far lower than these bound rates.
The average tariff applied by WTO members stands at 9 per cent whereas the
average bound rate is as high as 39 per cent. The difference between bound
and applied tariffs is even more marked for developing countries (see Chart 2).
This is because developing countries negotiated much higher ceilings for their
tariffs when joining the WTO. However, the tariffs they have actually applied have
declined by 22 per cent over the past 20 years, far exceeding the global average
decline of 15 per cent.

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/20y_e/wto_20_brochure_e.pdf

As regards to exports we will be free to negotiate FTAs but surely Dunt didn't think this would be done in 2 years (since it is not allowed by the EU)?

I have no idea why Dunt is foaming at the mouth over this - it is perfectly logical. Also I have no idea why it is "news" - it suggests to me that he doesn't know what he's talking about.

setmefree2

McDonald’s Moves Tax Base to U.K. Amid EU Attack on Burger Giant

Shift is apparent vote of confidence in U.K. in wake of Brexit
Comes as EU probes McDonald’s tax arrangements in Luxembourg

In an apparent vote of confidence in the U.K., which decided in June to leave the EU, the hamburger giant is creating a new international holding company based in the country.
The new company will be responsible for most of the royalties received from licensing McDonald’s intellectual property rights outside the U.S. It will pay U.K. corporation tax, the company said in an e-mailed statement. It will make changes to its corporate structure starting next month.

The new company will be responsible for most of the royalties received from licensing McDonald’s intellectual property rights outside the U.S. It will pay U.K. corporation tax, the company said in an e-mailed statement. It will make changes to its corporate structure starting next month.

“McDonald’s pays a significant amount of corporate taxes,” the company said. “From 2011-2015, we paid more than $2.5 billion in corporate taxes in the EU, with an average tax rate approaching 27 percent.” It generates about two-thirds of its revenue from outside the U.S.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-08/mcdonald-s-moves-tax-base-to-u-k-amid-eu-attack-on-burger-giant

Thrugelmir

CKhalvashi wrote: »

If the economy generally is growing faster than the deficit, then possibly, as the deficit to GDP ratio would be down meaning it's less of an issue and can be placed on the back burner to be dealt with after more important matters.

Deficit in simple terms is cash. Either borrowing or selling of assets to fund. There's been a deficit for years which means that the UK is getting poorer and poorer. Selling houses to each other at inflated prices to boost GDP isn't creating real wealth.

setmefree2

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Selling houses to each other at inflated prices to boost GDP isn't creating real wealth.

So true. It is simply robbing our children of a future. We are just turning our children into debt peons.

TrickyTree83

setmefree2 wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-08/mcdonald-s-moves-tax-base-to-u-k-amid-eu-attack-on-burger-giant

Interesting.

Can't wait for the "enlightened" amongst us to post a rebuttal to this and tell us why we're still all doomed and stupid.

Herzlos

setmefree2 wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-08/mcdonald-s-moves-tax-base-to-u-k-amid-eu-attack-on-burger-giant

Show of confidence in the UK, or confidence that it'll manage to get a good tax deal from a country that's keep to please companies to get them to stay after the EU split?

There's something to be said about moving to a country which is outside of the EU's fair taxation laws though. None of it benefits the UK itself unless people have shares in mcdonalds.

Key points from article; the confidence is "apparent", and:

An EU official said earlier this year that the McDonald’s case shows “just how far some companies push tax authorities to avoid paying any taxes.”

It's a tax dodge.