If we vote for Brexit what happens

mayonnaise

angrypirate wrote: »

Quite a decent article in the torygraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12180466/Leaving-the-EU-wont-actually-change-Britain-much-at-first-anyway.html

"With time a constraint, they would look at existing “off the shelf” models and legal instruments already at their disposal.

It will be abundantly clear that by far the most optimal way of de-risking Brexit is to rejoin the European Free Trade Agreement and trade with the EU via the European Economic Area. As we are already a contracting party to the EEA Agreement there is no serious obstacle; this is the path of least resistance."

And trading with the EU 'the EEA way' would retain freedom of movement as the author points out.

It means there would be no regulatory divergence or tariffs and it means retaining freedom of movement. Business and trade would be unaffected and Britons would still have the freedom to live and work in EEA countries.

Not sure if the migrant bashing angry english supremacist brexiteers will be happy with that.

michaels

CLAPTON wrote: »

are you saying the was no trade between european countries and australia for 20 years?
and no trade between european countries and s korea for 8 years?

frankly, you are wrong

It is part of the politics of fear. Let's try and conflate not having a tariff agreement with no trade.....

IN the short term the UK may well be 1 or 2 % of GDP worse off with Brexit but some would argue that is a price worth paying for maintaining (restoring?) democratic control, others would say it is too high a price. The 'educated' who already hold housing wealth and benefit from supressed prices for unskilled and semi-skilled labour and are more likely to look to work internationally in the EU are generally in favour, those on the 'losing out side' of the free movement of labour are obviously less keen.

It is disappointing that those who benefit spend their energies on calling those who lose out 'stupid/uneducated', 'ignorant' and 'racisit' rather than recognising that their are pluses and minues and that not everyone is impacted equally.

They could even try to paint a positive picture of what a future as a client state within a Europe of ever closer union would look like.

antrobus

angrypirate wrote: »

.....By far the most optimal way of de-risking Brexit is to rejoin the European Free Trade Agreement and trade with the EU via the European Economic Area. As we are already a contracting party to the EEA Agreement there is no serious obstacle; this is the path of least resistance."

But if we end up back in the EEA we will still have no 'control of our borders', and we will still be subject to all those EU regulations on bendy bannanas and suchlike to which we are all supposed to object, and we still have to cough up money to the social fund erc.

What would be the foxin point?

setmefree2

Sapphire wrote: »

To put the 'blame' on this on the elderly, who have enough to put up with, or the obese,

Sure the obese are to blame for the problems in the NHS - diabetes alone costs us 10% of the annual NHS budget - plus the costs of all those operations such as stomach by-pass surgery, gastric bands, etc - BP problems, etc etc

To blame East Europeans for the crisis in the NHS due to British obesity is nuts! The British are "the fat man of Europe" and has been for quite a while now.

DavidJonas

CLAPTON wrote: »

are you saying the was no trade between european countries and australia for 20 years?
and no trade between european countries and s korea for 8 years?

frankly, you are wrong

If you think you need a trade deal in order to trade, you are the one who is frankly wrong.

As I said, trade terms default to WTO standard. A trade deal is a preferential deal. Without preferential deals you are looking at tariffs, quotas and restrictions. On both sides.

The EU has preferential trade deals with a lot of countries and is working on a big one with the USA. We benefit from these. But only as a member of the EU.

Trading without preferential terms means reduced trade, it means businesses closing (both import and export), it means people put out of work, it means recession and declining prosperity.

Here are EU agricultural tariffs that apply to countries that do not have a preferential deal.

http://capreform.eu/wto-eu-trade-policy-review-2013/

30% on dairy products. That should make our dairy farmers happy.
14% on beverages, spirits and tobacco. One for the Scots, perhaps.

These are just the agricultural tariffs.

Incidentally, it took Australia 20 years to negotiate a deal with South Korea. Not with the EU.

michaels

setmefree2 wrote: »

Sure the obese are to blame for the problems in the NHS - diabetes alone costs us 10% of the annual NHS budget - plus the costs of all those operations such as stomach by-pass surgery, gastric bands, etc - BP problems, etc etc

To blame East Europeans for the crisis in the NHS due to British obesity is nuts! The British are "the fat man of Europe" and has been for quite a while now.

I beleive that obesity is inversely correlated with income and the free movement of labour has held down incomes of the unskilled. Thus one factor in the obesity epidemic could be argued to be Romainan Immigrants....

setmefree2

audigex wrote: »

Regarding house prices, nobody can even slightly predict the long term aspects of a possible Brexit. That said, the UK house market is mostly related to UK residents, which is unlikely to change significantly. Overall, I expect the UK housing market to do pretty much what it would do if we didn't leave.

If we leave and the pound collapses - interests rates will go up - which means house prices will fall.

michaels

DavidJonas wrote: »

Here are EU agricultural tariffs that apply to countries that do not have a preferential deal.

http://capreform.eu/wto-eu-trade-policy-review-2013/

30% on dairy products. That should make our dairy farmers happy.
14% on beverages, spirits and tobacco. One for the Scots, perhaps.

These are just the agricultural tariffs.

Incidentally, it took Australia 20 years to negotiate a deal with South Korea. Not with the EU.

Are you suggesting that outside the EU the 99% of UK consumers wo are not farmers or whisky makers could see their cost of dairy products fall by 30%? Meanwhile no doubt the savings on our net contributions to the Common Agricultural Policy could easily compensate the farmers and distillers

There are lots of good arguements for the EU membership - higher food prices for everyone is not one of them

CLAPTON

DavidJonas wrote: »

If you think you need a trade deal in order to trade, you are the one who is frankly wrong.

As I said, trade terms default to WTO standard. A trade deal is a preferential deal. Without preferential deals you are looking at tariffs, quotas and restrictions. On both sides.

The EU has preferential trade deals with a lot of countries and is working on a big one with the USA. We benefit from these. But only as a member of the EU.

Trading without preferential terms means reduced trade, it means businesses closing (both import and export), it means people put out of work, it means recession and declining prosperity.

Here are EU agricultural tariffs that apply to countries that do not have a preferential deal.

http://capreform.eu/wto-eu-trade-policy-review-2013/

30% on dairy products. That should make our dairy farmers happy.
14% on beverages, spirits and tobacco. One for the Scots, perhaps.

These are just the agricultural tariffs.

Incidentally, it took Australia 20 years to negotiate a deal with South Korea. Not with the EU.

Good to know we will continue trading even if we need to renegotiate in some situations.
I accept that there will be some disadvantages and there will be some advantages.
Existing trading partners will have to decide whether they wish to suffer reduced trade, their businesses closing, a lot of their people out of work, recession and their declining prosperity.
Clearly you think they will welcome this but I'm not so sure.

Sapphire

setmefree2 wrote: »

To blame East Europeans for the crisis in the NHS due to British obesity is nuts!

Excuse me, but when on Earth did I do that? I am of eastern European origin myself, and when it comes to the Poles, for example (people about whom I have intense knowledge), I know they are in the main very hardworking and possess a strong, ingrained work ethic. I remember before the Poles came here in the last decade or so, employing English people for various works. Many were incompetent, rude and did as little (often shoddy) work as they could get away with. That is not the case when it comes to the Poles – both this generation and the generations before it have a very strong work ethic. However, this is not the case with all the migrants that come here from the EU – many are plainly here for the benefits, which are much less or non-existent in their own countries (and yes, they do include some Poles who I have talked to). I don't blame them and would probably do the same in their position, but the amounts of taxpayers' money used for this purpose will bankrupt our infrastructure if paying out such benefits is not stopped and our borders are not controlled – and as the Euro implodes, there will be ever more people wanting to come here. :cool:

This all has nothing to do with the issue of British obesity, which is plainly nothing to do with migrants.