If we vote for Brexit what happens

Yolina

Tromking wrote: »

I think if the UK ever got like France and a far right party started getting 42% of the vote, then I think I`d join you.

Scary isn't it? As I can still vote in some French elections, I always make sure that lot don't get mine.

Never happening though is it?

How can you be so sure?

We don`t do facism like they do in mainland Europe.

Quite true but if the result's the same then it doesn't matter that it's a British version.

Rinoa

Just for those who think we are play an important part in EU decision making.

Tromking

Yolina wrote: »

Scary isn't it? As I can still vote in some French elections, I always make sure that lot don't get mine.
How can you be so sure?
Quite true but if the result's the same then it doesn't matter that it's a British version.

I guess the best predictor of future behaviour is the past.
We don`t seem to do extremes in politics, be it left or right.
You`ll get the odd no-mark who will post the front page of the Daily Fail on a forum in an attempt to persuede the terminally stupid that the UK is going to hell in an hardcart, but generally speaking we`re the most liberal of liberal democracies. But you know that already.
I simply don`t see a British version of mainland Europe`s xenophobia or intolerance. The 'Jungle' at Calais wouldn`t have happened in the UK for example.

angrypirate

Yolina wrote: »

I know :rotfl: None of my British friends are voting out.

Thats the great thing about a democracy. Your vote is 100% private if you want it to be and no know will ever know any different.

gfplux

Yolina wrote: »

Why on earth would I expect any kind of gratitude from anyone? I live here and so pay my taxes here - perfectly normal. However it does grate when a growing number of people assume that I'm just a sponger because I'm not British. I must be here to claim benefits, right?
As for faffing about: it's not the paperwork in itself (if you can deal with French bureaucracy, pretty much anything else is easy :rotfl: ) it's the principle, the fact that I was basically 'good enough' to move and live here, and then all of a sudden, after 20+ years, I wouldn't be and would need to ask permission? Doesn't sit well with me I'm afraid.

And no place is without its group of narrow-minded xenophobic tw*ts. I've always liked the UK, in part because there are (well were anyway) fewer narrow-minded xenophobic tw*ts but if it's going that way here anyway then I might as well have stayed in France. If the UK starts to feels like a country I am no longer happy to live in, I don't see why I shouldn't go somewhere else. I am free to move.

And I am fully aware of the Swiss quota thing but I thank you for your concern

Yolina you and others (including me) need to calm down. I am also in your situation. A Brit resident in Luxembourg.
I am the original poster and I have been disappinted by the type of debate/name calling that has taken place.
You and I as immigrants have to put up with any underlying predudice and it is easy in this thread to get overwhelmed by the numbers of OUT posters who are very angry and think that a Brexit will solve their number one problem of Immigrants.
We (the UK) can only start from here. Heaven help all of us if a Government after Brexit decides to expel the immigrants to satify the very vocal but very large minority.
Who would have predicted what is unfolding at the moment in the USA.

CLAPTON

gfplux wrote: »

Yolina you and others (including me) need to calm down. I am also in your situation. A Brit resident in Luxembourg.
I am the original poster and I have been disappinted by the type of debate/name calling that has taken place.
You and I as immigrants have to put up with any underlying predudice and it is easy in this thread to get overwhelmed by the numbers of OUT posters who are very angry and think that a Brexit will solve their number one problem of Immigrants.
We (the UK) can only start from here. Heaven help all of us if a Government after Brexit decides to expel the immigrants to satify the very vocal but very large minority.
Who would have predicted what is unfolding at the moment in the USA.

could you name a few people here that have called for expeling anyone ?

Yolina

I am calm, just very annoyed

DavidJonas

gfplux wrote: »

There is plenty of "information" being given by people who are sure they want in or out. You are a prime example of someone who is convinced that we will be better out. However for me all of these "facts" from both sides have the smell of spin.
However that is not really important. What I really want to know is exactly what will happen after an OUT vote.
I have "heard" that some people "think" that we will have 2 years to withdraw. "If" that is correct, does the countdown start at midnight from the day of the result is announced. Or, does it start when the Prine Minister of the day lodges with the EU an official letter of resignation.

You don't need to rely on anybody else. Go straight to the horses mouth. Here is Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. It's not long.

http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html

Nobody is going to be able to tell you anything more for sure than that.

The treaty is pretty clear. It says that "A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention". So the 2 years starts when David Cameron phones up the EU or they receive the letter he sends them.

Existing treaties cease to apply after 2 years from this date, or sooner if a withdrawal agreement has been negotiated to the satisfaction of both sides. The EU can unilaterally extend this period but is in no way obliged to.

Since trade deals take years to negotiate and ratify, there is no guarantee we will have any trade deals in place 2 years after the referendum. Not even with the EU. In such a case trade terms default to the WTO standard. We could well have fewer functioning trade deals than Zimbabwe and as many as North Korea. In a generation or two we could build these back up I guess. But our access to the single market will never be as good as it is now. Not unless all the supposed benefits of Brexit are negotiated away, and probably not then either. There has to be some benefit to being in the club. The EU will make sure of that.

It took the EU 8 years to complete a trade deal with South Korea. It took Australia 20 years to do the same. The idea that the moment we leave the EU the world and his wife will be on our doorstep crying out for trade talks is a farce.

Any economist could tell you Brexit will harm Britains prosperity in the short and medium term. It's a no-brainer. Politicians who act like it won't are pursuing a private agenda. Boris won't get to be PM by backing the same horse as Cameron and Osborne. Nor will Gove or IDS. These ambitious people would rather preside over a declining, shrinking economy than play second fiddle in a prosperous, growing one. Shame on them.

CLAPTON

DavidJonas wrote: »

You don't need to rely on anybody else. Go straight to the horses mouth. Here is Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. It's not long.

http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html

Nobody is going to be able to tell you anything more for sure than that.

The treaty is pretty clear. It says that "A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention". So the 2 years starts when David Cameron phones up the EU or they receive the letter he sends them.

Existing treaties cease to apply after 2 years from this date, or sooner if a withdrawal agreement has been negotiated to the satisfaction of both sides. The EU can unilaterally extend this period but is in no way obliged to.

Since trade deals take years to negotiate and ratify, there is no guarantee we will have any trade deals in place 2 years after the referendum. Not even with the EU. In such a case trade terms default to the WTO standard. We could well have fewer functioning trade deals than Zimbabwe and as many as North Korea. In a generation or two we could build these back up I guess. But our access to the single market will never be as good as it is now. Not unless all the supposed benefits of Brexit are negotiated away, and probably not then either. There has to be some benefit to being in the club. The EU will make sure of that.

It took the EU 8 years to complete a trade deal with South Korea. It took Australia 20 years to do the same. The idea that the moment we leave the EU the world and his wife will be on our doorstep crying out for trade talks is a farce.

Any economist could tell you Brexit will harm Britains prosperity in the short and medium term. It's a no-brainer. Politicians who act like it won't are pursuing a private agenda. Boris won't get to be PM by backing the same horse as Cameron and Osborne. Nor will Gove or IDS. These ambitious people would rather preside over a declining, shrinking economy than play second fiddle in a prosperous, growing one. Shame on them.

are you saying the was no trade between european countries and australia for 20 years?
and no trade between european countries and s korea for 8 years?

frankly, you are wrong

angrypirate

CLAPTON wrote: »

are you saying the was no trade between european countries and australia for 20 years?
and no trade between european countries and s korea for 8 years?

frankly, you are wrong

Quite a decent article in the torygraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12180466/Leaving-the-EU-wont-actually-change-Britain-much-at-first-anyway.html

"With time a constraint, they would look at existing “off the shelf” models and legal instruments already at their disposal.

It will be abundantly clear that by far the most optimal way of de-risking Brexit is to rejoin the European Free Trade Agreement and trade with the EU via the European Economic Area. As we are already a contracting party to the EEA Agreement there is no serious obstacle; this is the path of least resistance."