If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

StevieJ wrote: »

What was it that Mandy Rice davies said?


Or rather to paraphrase.
Well they would would wouldn't they

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/gloomy-economic-predictions-wrong-pro-010600664.html

indeed so
however, many people would say that economic forecasting in general and including the OBRs, have not proved very reliable in the past.

StevieJ

CLAPTON wrote: »

indeed so
however, many people would say that economic forecasting in general and including the OBRs, have not proved very reliable in the past.

Yes, but I wonder what their views on the OBR would have been if a more positive outlook had been forecast for govt finances post-brexit After all a forecast is merely a forecast.

CLAPTON

StevieJ wrote: »

Yes, but I wonder what their views on the OBR would have been if a more positive outlook had been forecast for govt finances post-brexit After all a forecast is merely a forecast.

how does this affect the past performance of economic forecasting?

however, as I understand it the OBR has forecast growth in every year of the next 5 years although one wouldn't have noticed from their public presentation.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mwpt wrote: »

I wonder if many of you realise that we see you in the same manner you see us. The vociferous anti EU propoganda you guys serve up is looked up by many of us in the same way.

How about a POV from well outside the EU then?
And try to remember that the included are fact, not the fiction which "you guys" look upon as being factual.
Greek crisis: fact.
Refugee crisis: fact.
Sharia law accepted by German judges: fact.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/19816

setmefree2

Moby wrote: »

If these forecasts are good enough for the treasury ...they are good enough for me. Brexiteers are ignoring information that does not agree with their world view.

But the OBR forecasts have been miles out since Brexit so why did believe this one? Because it agrees with your world view ?

Moby wrote: »

Their decision to vote in the way they did was an emotional one based on ignorance and is light on facts.That much is clear from the Autumn Statement.

Well Tony Blair doesn't agree with you.

But, I suggest, the Remain side made numberless dire economic forecasts during the long, dispiriting referendum campaign and they were ignored. The public understands well enough the risks of Brexit.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/11/tony-blair-s-unfinished-business

mayonnaise

Every cloud has a silver lining.

After Brexit and Trump’s victory, Europeans are beginning to like the E.U. again

But it turns out that both Brexit and Trump's election could actually help save the European Union.

In five of the union's six most populous countries, E.U. approval is on the rise.

It is ironic that 2016, the year that appeared to be the beginning of the E.U.'s end, could in fact give the union its strongest boost.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/11/24/europeans-start-liking-the-e-u-again/

LauraW10

Moby wrote: »

By the way Labour built up debt to rescue the services destroyed by the Thatcher govmts.....You know.....things like the NHS, education etc. These services were on their knees in the 90's.....by the way the NHS is reverting back to that situation......I wonder who is in power!

Brown borrowed into the future, expecting receipts to continue rising. This is partly why public spending has increased so much since the crisis – we still have an overbloated public sector with record pay levels, growing debt and deficit, and little economic growth. Brown created the illusion of prosperity but by ditching manufacturing concentrating instead on The City, he ensured we will not recover for a long long time. Had we gone the Balls route, our debts and deficits would be even greater.

mwpt

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

How about a POV from well outside the EU then?
And try to remember that the included are fact, not the fiction which "you guys" look upon as being factual.
Greek crisis: fact.

What fact? That Greece went on a credit binge and overspent like governments are prone to do (like our very own setmefree2 constantly chides Labour for doing), and the consequences came back to bite them. Yes, that is a fact.

That they voted for a party which went to the markets cap in hand to borrow more money, which came with conditions (because, who wants to lend money without conditions), and they accepted? Fact.

That they then subsequently voted for a party which promised to end austerity, when this was not in their power to deliver because you don't just choose to magic up some prosperity. Fact.

That the party then was told by the people to reject the conditions of further bailout money but the Greek people's own government chose to ignore this. How is that for democracy. Fact.

Greece isn't the first country to suffer problem of over-borrow / over-spend, and it won't be the last. Inside or outside the EU, there is no such thing as a free lunch. First rule.

So those are fact, but of course, in your small anti-EU biased view, they will all just be turned around and blamed on the nasty EU.

Refugee crisis: fact.

Yes, there are wars in the world, some of them where the UK may have even had a part in. And yes, people get displaced from warzones. But the EU is responsible for this, how?

My guess is you're going to blame Merkel.

Sharia law accepted by German judges: fact.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/19816

I'm not even going to bother opening that.

Sapphire

So, with regard to Herr Schulz's departure from the EU, are the rats beginning to desert the sinking ship SS EU?

Don't be fooled into thinking that may be the case – they would just try to palm off some sort of reboot onto us, still involving loss of sovereignty and rule of independent nations by dictators (again). Be on your guard….

Thrugelmir

StevieJ wrote: »

Yes, but I wonder what their views on the OBR would have been if a more positive outlook had been forecast for govt finances post-brexit After all a forecast is merely a forecast.

There's little to be positive about. As there's no miracles coming anytime soon. The numbers are simply so large that whatever the medicine. The taste isn't going to unpleasant.

No doubt every vocal minority group will be arguing for protection. As will consider themselves hard done by. Everybody just needs to work harder and be more productive with their time. That's the bottom line.