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If we vote for Brexit what happens
Comments
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Main questions I would want to know would be
If we vote out what happens to the millions of EU families now in the UK and English families in Europe. A lot of them have been here for years a lot of them have had kids here and a lot of them are for all intents settled. Do they get deported if so how will that work and happen or do they get some sort of visa or citizenship?
If we vote out. Will there still be free movement within the EU and UK (this doesn't look likely as a lot of the no votes are not voting about Europe but immigration) what about free movement with their 'tier 1' EU countries and the UK eg Germany France Italy and keep the poorer east Europeans at bay?
I'm not so concerned about the trade arguments we would be OK either way. I am likely to vote stay if for no other reason than it being quite !!!! to expelled families that have been here for years and divided to make the move with the laws and systems in place not expecting to be expelled. I would be a lot more likely to consider a leave vote if it was cleared up what would happen to then and whatever that was was reasonably fair.
The EU haven't said what will happen
The UK government hasn't said either
Given government can't commit future governments then you won't really expect an answer.
But it seems extremely unlikely that the UK would be vindictive so I would guess those here will say : for potential new arrivals the matter would be different.
Do bear in mind, that the majority view of the 'stay' group is the belief that the EU27 will indeed be vindictive even to the point of harming their own citizens : personally I disagree.
Best to apply for british citizenship asap0 -
It seems to be your position (like a lot of other people) is more driven by hatred of the Tories than any regard for the competence of the EU.
One could take the view that the UK politics can change while the continuing incompetence of the EU is a forgone conclusion.
Some, I suppose, can seek seek some comfort that the worse suffers of the EU dogma are the southern European countries (who seem to receive less sympathy than others for some reason.)
Anyway 10 out of 10 on being against the UK joining the Euro and 0 of 10 for not recognising the damage the Euro is continuing to do to all concerned.
Part of my attitude to EU may be coloured by the years of misleading information about its failings (eg the banana issue). I do not hate Tories but I do distrust some of the Tory right wing. The difference between the Tory left and the Labour Right is frankly not worth bothering about.
I would actually like the EU to change, for example limiting the freedom of movement to nations at a similar level of economic development, but would like this done from within. I also think they should admit the Euro is a failure and consider transiting countries like Greece out of it. Even left ringers like Ken Livingstone, who were opposed to the EU for years, now realise that we cannot get away from the need for nations to cooperate in trading groups and adopt common regulations. What I hate is the vitriol directed at the EU rather than a strategy of engaging cooperatively with other nations to improve things.Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.0 -
Part of my attitude to EU may be coloured by the years of misleading information about its failings (eg the banana issue). I do not hate Tories but I do distrust some of the Tory right wing. The difference between the Tory left and the Labour Right is frankly not worth bothering about.
I would actually like the EU to change, for example limiting the freedom of movement to nations at a similar level of economic development, but would like this done from within. I also think they should admit the Euro is a failure and consider transiting countries like Greece out of it. Even left ringers like Ken Livingstone, who were opposed to the EU for years, now realise that we cannot get away from the need for nations to cooperate in trading groups and adopt common regulations. What I hate is the vitriol directed at the EU rather than a strategy of engaging cooperatively with other nations to improve things.
The banana issue was an important issue that disadvantaged poor developing nations. The refusal of the EU to trade with developing African nations has significantly damaged their development and probably caused (at least in part) some of the migration from those countries which the EU now has to cope with.
I agree it would be better for all the 196 nations of the world to co-operate and develop common trading regulation (basically tariff and non-tariff free). The EU probably stands in the way of such co-operation as it sees itself primarily as a political and not an economic union.
Sadly, looking at the EU's response to the southern european issues, the migration issues etc, I see little reason for much optimism : maybe if brexit happened that may stimulate the necessary change.0 -
if we remain in the EU, we have a number of opt outs and we remain at the table to be involved in future decision making. So, that is plus point in staying.
Don't forget, we're just one country out of 28. Debatable whether they take much notice of us in any case.
if we leave the EU, we lose our opt outs.
If we leave the EU, we won't need the opt outs.If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
Regarding house prices, nobody can even slightly predict the long term aspects of a possible Brexit. That said, the UK house market is mostly related to UK residents, which is unlikely to change significantly. Overall, I expect the UK housing market to do pretty much what it would do if we didn't leave.
However I do expect, if we vote to leave, a short term decline in demand as people get a little nervous about moving. People get cautious when there's uncertainty, and I expect fewer people to move house in the short term after a Brexit vote."You did not pull yourself up by your bootstraps. You were lucky enough to come of age at a time when housing was cheap, welfare was generous, and inflation was high enough to wipe out any debts you acquired. I’m pleased for you, but please stop being so unbearably smug about it."0 -
Main questions I would want to know would be
If we vote out what happens to the millions of EU families now in the UK and English families in Europe. A lot of them have been here for years a lot of them have had kids here and a lot of them are for all intents settled. Do they get deported if so how will that work and happen or do they get some sort of visa or citizenship?
Nothing will happen immediately. Over the next year or two the UK Government would probably negotiate UK into the EEA, so freedom of movement would continue as before.
But if agreement was not reached and we decided to be outside the EEA we would probably find some impediments to living in the EU (eg the need to have medical insurance and no entitlement to benefits, work permits etc)If we vote out. Will there still be free movement within the EU and UK (this doesn't look likely as a lot of the no votes are not voting about Europe but immigration) what about free movement with their 'tier 1' EU countries and the UK eg Germany France Italy and keep the poorer east Europeans at bay?
Whatever people think they are voting for will not matter. If we are in the EEA we will be required to accept freedom of movement for EU nationals and all the regulations that apply to selling to the EU. There is no concept of Tier 1 nations so Romanians would still come freely. If we are not in the EEA we can stop who we like coming here and will be busy negotiating trade deals while the economy is in turmoil.I'm not so concerned about the trade arguments we would be OK either way. I am likely to vote stay if for no other reason than it being quite !!!! to expelled families that have been here for years and divided to make the move with the laws and systems in place not expecting to be expelled. I would be a lot more likely to consider a leave vote if it was cleared up what would happen to then and whatever that was was reasonably fair[.
Until exit negotiations complete it is difficult to say what will happen. I doubt anyone will be expelled, but it may just make life more difficult.Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.0 -
So I would guess those here will say
If I have to do a ton of paperwork to stay in the UK, I won't bother and you can keep your green and (no longer quite so) pleasant land, I'll just go somewhere else. Don't underestimate the amount of ill-will that's being generated by those shenanigans. Even if the UK votes in, I may well decide to move country anyway.
No thanksBest to apply for british citizenship asap
I'll keep my French passport. The UK's been my home for over 20 years, but I'd rather be able to easily up sticks and settle in another EU country if I so wish. Now free from the incompetence of vodafail0 -
mayonnaise wrote: »A refugee will have as little or as much right to come to the UK whether we are in the EU or not. Do you think they will stop camping in Calais after Brexit?(or in Kent after France unilaterally cancels the Sangatte Protocol
)
This thought occurred to me back in February after a skiing trip which took me through five countries. The only interest shown in my car was a French policeman at Le Havre who checked my car. He wasn't looking for drugs or contraband!0 -
In 2006 £1 was worth €1.45, ten years on the Pound has dropped to €1.26, in other words Sterling is weaker than the Euro! Importing much food, energy and pretty much everything else, a weaker pound makes life in the UK dearer and will soon lead to a rise in inflation. Inflation will put pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates, which will lead to a drop in house prices, negative equity, … and a vicious downward spiral: http://iitm.be/€urishRegarding house prices, nobody can even slightly predict the long term aspects of a possible Brexit. That said, the UK house market is mostly related to UK residents, which is unlikely to change significantly. Overall, I expect the UK housing market to do pretty much what it would do if we didn't leave0 -
They do not have their laws made by the EU, they are not part of Schengen they do not pay a levy for the privilege of trade.
Yes they do. The last figure I saw was a sum of about £106 per head as against our payment of just over £150 per head.
They also have to meet EU regulations and have open movement without having any part in making laws.0
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